Patriot missile systems will help Ukraine's defense but experts ...

CNN —

The US announced this week that it is providing a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine — but experts say that while it will be a valuable addition to the beleaguered country’s air defense, it’s not a cure-all.

The US announced a new aid package to Ukraine on Tuesday, which included the “first-ever transfer to Ukraine of the Patriot Air and Missile Defense System, capable of bringing down cruise missiles, short range ballistic missiles, and aircraft at a significantly higher ceiling than previously provided air defense systems,” according to a State Department spokesperson. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to the US on Wednesday to celebrate the transfer with US President Joe Biden.

“It increases accuracy, it increases the kill rate, so it really does exactly what you want it to do which is protection on the ground on very specific targets,” retired Maj. Gen. James “Spider” Marks previously told CNN of the system’s capabilities.

The Patriot’s radar system combines “surveillance, tracking, and engagement functions in one unit,” a description from the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) says, which makes it stand out among other air defense systems. The system’s engagements with incoming aerial threats are “nearly autonomous” aside from needing a “final launch decision” from the humans operating it.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked for the US Army’s Patriot – an acronym for Phased Array Tracking Radar for intercept on Target – system, as it is considered one of the most capable long-range air defense systems on the market. And though the US did not fulfill the request for the first 10 months of the war, a senior administration official told CNN that the “reality of what is going on” on the ground in Ukraine influenced their decision to do so.

In recent weeks, the Russian military has increasingly attacked Ukraine’s power grid and infrastructure as winter approached and the temperatures dropped. Zelensky told Biden that “Russian missile terror” had knocked out roughly half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Those attacks have only further fueled Ukraine’s asks for the Patriot. In fact, the Army calls the Patriot system the service’s “most advanced air defense system,” which can intercept “any aerial threat” under “any weather conditions.”

Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former commander of US Army Europe, told CNN that there is likely some unrealistic expectations about what a Patriot battery will be able to do for Ukraine. It won’t, for example, be available to use immediately after the US agrees to provide it — it takes months to train troops on how to use the complex system, Hertling said, adding that training US troops to serve as maintainers or repairmen takes around a year. And it won’t be able to provide blanket cover for the entire country.

“These systems don’t pick up and move around the battlefield,” Hertling said. “You put them in place somewhere that defends your most strategic target, like a city, like Kyiv. If anyone thinks this is going to be a system that is spread across a 500-mile border between Ukraine and Russia, they just don’t know how the system operates.”

Indeed, Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, told CNN that the Patriot is “not a game-changer” because it is “still only able to defend a relatively small piece of dirt.”

Not to mention the significant logistical needs; just one battery is operated by roughly 90 soldiers, and includes computers, an engagement control system, a phased array radar, power generating equipment, and “up to eight launchers,” according to the Army.

CSIS recently said in a report that the missile rounds for the Patriot come in at roughly $4 million each. Rounds that expensive likely won’t be used to shoot down every missile Russia launches toward Ukraine, Hertling said.

“This is not a system that will go after drones or smaller ballistic missiles,” he said. “Can it do that? Absolutely. But when you’re talking about knocking down a $20,000 drone, or a $100,000 ballistic missile that Russia buys, with a $3-5 million rocket, that doesn’t give you much of a return on the investment. What it can do it free up the low and medium systems to go after those kind of targets.”

The system has been purchased by other US allies, including Israel, Germany, and Japan, and was sent to Poland in an effort to help them defend themselves against Russia as it invaded Ukraine on its border. The US military made clear in March when the Patriot system was sent to Poland that it was purely for defensive purposes of NATO territory and “will in no way support any offensive operations.”

And in Ukraine’s case, Hertling says offensive operations are far more important than the Patriot system. CNN first reported last month that the US was considering a dramatic increase in the training provided to Ukrainian forces by instructing as many as 2,500 troops a month at a US base in Germany. The Pentagon said this month that combined arms training of battalion-sized elements, which will include infantry maneuvers and live fire exercises, would begin in January.

“The Patriots are a defensive, anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft weapon system, with the emphasis on defensive,” Hertling said. “You don’t win wars with defensive capabilities. You win wars with offensive capabilities.”

What to know about hypersonic missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine

CNN —

A Russian bomber fired three hypersonic missiles at the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa on Monday night, Ukrainian officials said, as part of a barrage that leveled a number of civilian targets including hotels and a shopping mall.

It is not the first time Moscow has deployed its Kinzhal hypersonic missile during its invasion, but it does appear to be a relatively rare occurrence.

Russia said it used Kinzhal missiles Ukraine in mid-March – a claim later confirmed by US officials to CNN – in the first known use of the weapon in combat.

In March, US President Joe Biden confirmed Russia’s use of the Kinzhal missile, describing it as “a consequential weapon … it’s almost impossible to stop it. There’s a reason they’re using it.”

Biden’s defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, has downplayed the effectiveness of the missile, telling CBS in March that he “would not see it as a game-changer.”

And the UK defense ministry has previously said the Kinzhal missile is really just an air-launched version of the Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), which Russia has used repeatedly in its war on Ukraine.

Here’s what to know.

Why the fear and hype about hypersonic missiles?

First, it’s important to understand the term.

Essentially, all missiles are hypersonic – which means they travel at least five times the speed of sound. Almost any warhead released from a rocket miles in the atmosphere will reach this speed heading to its target. It is not a new technology.

What military powers – including Russia, China, the United States and North Korea – are working on now is a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). An HGV is a highly maneuverable payload that can theoretically fly at hypersonic speed while adjusting course and altitude to fly under radar detection and around missile defenses.

An HGV is the weapon that’s almost impossible to stop. And Russia is thought to have an HGV in its arsenal, the Avangard system, which Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 called “practically invulnerable” to Western air defenses.

A Russian Air Force MiG-31K jet carries a high-precision hypersonic aero-ballistic missile Kh-47M2 Kinzhal during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia on May 9, 2018. Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP/FILE

But the Kinzhal, as a variant of the Iskander SRBM, is not an HGV. While it does have limited maneuverability like the Iskander, its main advantage is that it can be launched from MiG-31 fighter jets, giving it a longer range and the ability to attack from multiple directions, according to a report last year from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The MiG-31K can strike from unpredictable directions and could avoid interception attempts altogether. The flying carrier vehicle might also be more survivable than the road-mobile Iskander system,” the report said.

The same report also noted that the ground-launched Iskander proved vulnerable to missile defense systems during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, during which Azeri forces intercepted an Armenian Iskander.

“This suggests that claims of the Kinzhal’s invulnerability to missile defense systems may also be somewhat exaggerated,” the report said.

Does Ukraine have missile defenses?

The United States and its NATO allies are already sending several surface-to-air missiles systems to Ukraine to aid in its defense.

According to a senior US official in March, these additional systems included the Soviet-era SA-8, SA-10, SA-12 and SA-14 mobile air defense systems.

NATO member Slovakia has also sent more modern S-300 missile defense batteries to Ukraine.

In April, the United Kingdom promised £100 million ($123 million) worth of high-grade military equipment, including more Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles. Weeks later, Germany said it would supply 50 anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine.

And the US is preparing a mammoth $40 billion aid package that would include additional anti-aircraft capabilities for the Ukrainian military.

Why did Putin use the Kinzhal missile?

Use in Ukraine marks the combat debut for Russia’s Kinzhal system.

“On March 18, the Kinzhal aviation missile system with hypersonic aeroballistic missiles destroyed a large underground warehouse of missiles and aviation ammunition of Ukrainian troops in the village of Delyatin, Ivano-Frankivsk region,” Russia’s Defense Ministry said at the time.

US officials later confirmed to CNN that Russia launched hypersonic missiles against Ukraine and were able to track the launches in real time.

The launches in March were likely intended to test the weapons and send a message to the West about Russian capabilities, multiple sources told CNN.

At that point, the war on the ground in Ukraine had become something of a stalemate. Russia may have been looking for victories it could tout.

The UK defense ministry said at the time that Moscow probably deployed the Kinzhal to “detract from a lack of progress in Russia’s ground campaign.” Austin, the US defense secretary, used similar language in his CBS interview in March, saying Putin was”trying to reestablish some momentum.”

By the end of March, the US assessed that Russian forces were running low on air-launched cruise missiles, according to a US defense official, who said there were indications that Russia was trying to preserve that inventory as part of its declining stocks of precision guided munitions.

US preparing to approve advanced long-range rocket system for ...

Washington CNN —

The Biden administration is preparing to step up the kind of weaponry it is offering Ukraine by sending advanced, long-range rocket systems that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.

The administration is leaning toward sending the systems as part of a larger package of military and security assistance to Ukraine, which could be announced as soon as next week.

Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have pleaded in recent weeks for the US and its allies to provide the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS. The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

Another system Ukraine has asked for is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a lighter wheeled system capable of firing many of the same types of ammunition as MLRS.

Russia has in recent weeks pummeled Ukraine in the east, where Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned, Ukrainian officials have said.

The Biden administration waivered for weeks, however, on whether to send the systems, amid concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine could use the new weapons to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia, officials said.

On Friday, after CNN first reported the news, Russians warned that the United States will “cross a red line” if it supplies the systems to Ukraine.

“The US intends to discuss the issue of supplying Ukraine with these weapons as soon as next week,” Olga Skabeeva, a prominent Russian TV host, said on her high-profile show on the state network Rossiya-1. “At the present moment, the issue is being addressed by the US presidential administration. So now, we are not even talking about tactical weapons anymore, but about the operational-tactical weapons.”

She continued: “The US MLRS can launch shells over 500 kilometers. And if the Americans do this, they will clearly cross a red line, and we will record an attempt to provoke a very harsh response from Russia.”

While Skabeeva does not speak for the Kremlin, her views frequently reflect official thinking.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina responded to CNN’s reporting on Twitter Friday, saying he was frustrated the Biden administration has been “dragging their feet” on giving Ukraine the rocket systems.

On Friday, the Pentagon’s outgoing press secretary John Kirby suggested a final decision on the MLRS hadn’t been reached yet. “Certainly we’re mindful and aware of Ukrainian asks, privately and publicly, for what is known as a multiple launch rocket system. And I won’t get ahead of decisions that haven’t been made yet,” Kirby told reporters during a briefing.

In this File photo from 2020, a US soldier sits at a Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) after an artillery live fire event by the US Army Europe's 41st Field Artillery Brigade in Germany. Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images/FILE

The issue of whether to supply the rocket systems was at the top of the agenda at last week’s two meetings at the White House where deputy Cabinet members convened to discuss national security policy, officials said. At the heart of the matter was the same concern the administration has grappled with since the start of the war– whether sending increasingly heavy weaponry to Ukraine will be viewed by Russia as a provocation that could trigger some kind of retaliation against the US.

One major hang-up, the sources said, had been the rocket systems’ extensive range. The MLRS and its lighter-weight version, the HIMARS, can launch as far as 300km, or 186 miles, depending on the type of munition. They are fired from a mobile vehicle at land-based targets, which would allow the Ukrainians to more easily strike targets inside Russia.

Ukraine is already believed to have carried out numerous cross-border strikes inside Russia, which Ukrainian officials neither confirm nor deny. Russian officials have said publicly that any threat to their homeland would constitute a major escalation and have said that western countries are making themselves a legitimate target in the war by continuing to arm the Ukrainians.

Another major concern inside the Biden administration had been whether the US could afford to give away so many high-end weapons drawn from the military’s stockpiles, the sources said.

Asked on Monday whether the US would provide the systems, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin demurred. “I don’t want to get ahead of where we are in the process of resourcing requirements,” he told reporters.

The administration had similar concerns about providing Ukraine with additional MiG-29 fighter jets, which some worried could allow the Ukrainians to take the fight into Russia. Ultimately, the US decided against backfilling Poland with new jets, which would have allowed the Poles to equip Ukraine with the soviet-era MiGs.

The debate about the MLRS is also similar to one that played out before the US decided to begin sending heavier, long-range Howitzers, to Ukraine last month. Weapons packages focused on anti-tank Javelin and short-range Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, as well as small arms and ammunition. At the time, the M777 Howitzers marked a significant increase in range and power over previous systems, but even those top out at around 25 kilometers or 18 miles in range. The MLRS can fire much further still than any of the artillery the US has sent to date.

One workaround could be to provide Ukraine with shorter-range rocket systems, officials said, which is also under consideration. It would not take too long to train the Ukrainians on any of the rocket launcher systems, officials told CNN — likely about two weeks, they said.

Every drawdown from existing inventories involves a review of its potential effect on US military readiness. With the previous drawdowns, the risk has been “relatively low,” said Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley on Monday. The military is watching “very, very carefully” to make sure the stockpiles don’t drop below levels that create a greater risk, he added.

The concern grows significantly with more capable, more expensive systems of which the US does not have as large a supply, the sources said.

Pentagon officials met with the CEO of Lockheed Martin last week to discuss supply and ramping up production of the MLRS, one source familiar with the meeting told CNN. The meeting was led by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante.

The UK is also still deciding whether to send the systems, two officials told CNN, and would like to do so in conjunction with the US.

Children walk among buildings destroyed during fighting in Mariupol, in territory under the government of the Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine, Wednesday, May 25, 2022. AP

Frustration has grown on the Ukrainian side with the US’ indecisiveness in recent weeks, because they believe that once the US sends the systems then other countries will quickly follow suit.

As recently as this week, the Pentagon had told Ukraine “we are working on it,” said one irritated Ukrainian official, who added that Ukraine is asking for an update on the decision “every hour.”

“We are in great need of weapons that will make it possible to engage the enemy over a long distance,” Ukraine’s top military commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said Thursday. “And this cannot be delayed, because the price of delay is measured by the lives of people who have protected the world from [Russian fascism].”

When Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was asked Thursday what his country’s most urgent needs are, he responded: “If you really care for Ukraine, weapons, weapons and weapons again.”

“My least favorite phrase is ‘We are working on it’; I hate it. I want to hear either ‘We got it’ or ‘It’s not going to happen,’” he added.

Democratic Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado, who was part of a congressional delegation trip to Kyiv earlier this month, told CNN he believes the systems could help Ukraine gain significant momentum against Russia.

“I think it could be a gamechanger, to be honest with you,” Crow said, not only for offensive attacks but also for defense. He explained that Russian conventional artillery, which has a range of about 50km, “would not get close” to Ukrainian urban centers if MLRS systems were positioned there. “So it would take away their siege tactics,” he said of the Russians.

This story has been updated with comments from Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby, as well as a Russian TV host on Friday warning the US would cross a red line by sending Ukraine the MLRS, and a tweet from Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who criticized the Biden Administration for delaying approval of the weapons

Jim Sciutto Natasha Bertrand Alex Marquardt

Ukraine live updates: 100 Ukrainian troops to train in Oklahoma

About 100 Ukrainians are bound for Fort Sill in Oklahoma to learn how to use the Patriot missile defense system to help counter Russia's barrage of its civilian population and infrastructure.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lobbied for months for the system, saying it would make a significant difference in bolstering Kyiv's defenses. The U.S. pledged one Patriot battery in December as part of one of several large military assistance packages, and last week Germany pledged another one. The truck-mounted launching systems can hold up to four missile interceptors, a ground radar, a control station and a generator.

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the training could begin as soon as next week and could take several months.

The system and training will "provide another capability to Ukrainian people to defend themselves against Russia's ongoing aerial assaults," Ryder said.

Other developments:

The Ukraine military said Tuesday that hospitals in the Russian-occupied port city of Berdyansk are so crowded with wounded that Russian troops set up three military hospitals in the last week.

Finland and Sweden will soon win the unanimous approval of NATO members required to join the defense pact, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday. Turkey and Hungary have thus far failed to sign off on accepting the two nations as members.

Swedish authorities warned that Russia is likely to increase activities threatening the Scandinavian nation's telecommunication and the power networks.

KREMLIN CLAIMS CRITICIZED IN RUSSIA:Rich, famous dissenters face crackdown: Ukraine updates

'This is what madness looks like': Russians destroy town of Soledar

The small, mining town of Soledar once known for the healing power of its salt caves, is the latest victim of Russia's brutal efforts to gain control of the industrial Donbas region.

Soledar, which had a population of more than 10,000 people a year ago, is virtually abandoned today. Zelenskyy, in his nightly address Monday, said Soledar has been the focus of Russia's assaults in recent days and there are now "almost no whole walls left" in the town.

The streets, he said, are covered with the bodies of Russian soldiers and scars from rocket strikes. Russia is overrunning the city, but at a cost – Zelenskyy said the Ukraine military has gained valuable time and strength for defending the region.

"I thank all the warriors in Soledar who withstand new and even tougher attacks of the occupiers," Zelenskyy said. "And what did Russia want to gain there? Everything is completely destroyed, there is almost no life left. ... This is what madness looks like."

Ukraine ambassador to US: It's hard to say things are 'fine'

Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, says she has a hard time answering a simple question such as "how are you?" these days. Markarova told The Kyiv Independent she is working around the clock in Washington to secure much-needed weapons for Ukraine’s battle to drive Russian troops out of her country.

“I usually tell people we are kicking, fighting, but to say that we are fine is hard,” Markarova told the Independent.

Markarova says she agrees with Zelenskyy that Russia's efforts to scare Ukrainians into submission with unrelenting missile strikes that prompt disruptions in heat, light and water won't work.

“Talking to not only the president but also to family and friends, (these attacks) have made everyone more resolute,” she said.

Belarus, Iran could face EU sanctions for aiding Russia

The European Union will expand sanctions pressure on Russia and expand it to countries that provide military aid to the Russian war effort, European Community President Ursula von der Leyen said at a news briefing Tuesday. Belarus has been conducting military exercises with Russian troops, and strong evidence indicates Iran has been providing Russia with armed drones and other weaponry. Iran denies it.

"We will keep the pressure on the Kremlin for as long as it takes with a biting sanctions regime," she said. "We will extend these sanctions to those who militarily support Russia's war, such as Belarus or Iran."

Von der Leyen also pledged to continue the EU's "substantial" humanitarian, economic and security assistance to Ukraine for as long as the embattled country needs it.

EU to consider Ukraine membership in weeks; Russia warns of ...

Editor's note: This page recaps the news from Ukraine on Sunday, April 10. Follow here for the latest updates and news from Monday, April 11, as Russia's invasion continues.

Ukraine could become part of the European Union in a matter of weeks, the president of the European Commission said Sunday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Ukraine’s application to join the EU in February, and Olga Stefanishyna, deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine, said in April she expects Ukraine to fully join the E.U. by June.

The process can take years, but European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that Ukraine’s membership could take only weeks to consider.

“Yesterday, somebody told me: “You know, when our soldiers are dying, I want them to know that their children will be free be and be part of the European Union,” von der Leyen said. “They are in an extraordinary situation, where we have to take unusual steps.”

Ukrainians “belong to our European family, without any question,” she said.

USA TODAY TELEGRAM: Join our new Russia-Ukraine war channel to receive updates straight to your phone.

LATEST VISUAL EXPLANATIONS: Mapping and tracking Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Latest developments:

► Ukraine’s border guard agency says about 2,200 Ukrainian men of fighting age have been detained so far while trying to leave the country in violation of martial law. The agency said Sunday that some of them have used forged documents and others tried to bribe border guards.

► Ukraine is investigating the involvement of about 500 Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, in 5,600 possible war crimes, Irina Venediktova, Ukraine's chief prosecutor, said Sunday.

► Authorities in the region that includes Ukraine's fourth-largest city, Dnipro, say the airport was hit twice by missile attacks on Sunday.

Russia warns of 'direct military confrontation' with US

Ukrainian forces are pushing back Russian troops so successfully that the invaders have been forced to regroup, refit and refocus, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday.

“Russia has changed its behavior in this war,” Sullivan said on CBS News' Face The Nation. “They have retreated. They have pulled back from substantial territory in northern and northeastern Ukraine. Chiefly the reason they made those adjustments is because they were beaten by the Ukrainians.”

Sullivan credited the Ukraine military — and the flow of equipment the U.S. and its allies have been sending the besieged country. Last week, he said Slovakia was able to send an S-300 air defense system because the U.S. was willing to provide a Patriot battery to replace the system Slovakia was giving away.

Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov earlier told Newsweek the West is provoking Russia.

"We warn that such actions are dangerous," the envoy said. "They can lead the U.S. and the Russian Federation onto the path of direct military confrontation."

Russia appoints new war commander

Moscow has appointed a new war chief after a largely unsuccessful six weeks of battle in Ukraine, a senior U.S. official said Sunday.

According to the official, who is not authorized to be identified and spoke on condition of anonymity, said General Alexander Dvornikov has a history of brutality against Syrians and other civilians. Dvornikov, 60, one of Russia's most experienced military officers, will be the first central war commander on the ground in Ukraine.

But U.S. officials don't seem to be worried about the new appointment.Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, said: “No appointment of any general can erase the fact that Russia has already faced a strategic failure in Ukraine.”

Ukrainians wrap up training in US

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday thanked a small number of Ukrainian troops who were departing the United States after training to operate patrol boats and kamikaze drones, the latter among the latest military technology sent to fight Russian invaders, the Pentagon announced. The Ukrainian contingent, whose size the Pentagon has not disclosed, took part in a long-standing training mission that began Feb. 24, the day Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces invaded Ukraine.

The mission was extended to include training on Switchblade drones, which stay aloft long enough for operators to locate enemy positions or armored vehicles and then crash into them and explode.

Austin thanked the Ukrainian troops by video conference on their final day at the U.S. Navy’s base at Little Creek, Va., Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in a statement.

Austrian chancellor to meet with Putin; some Ukrainians not pleased

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday for talks, two days after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Nehammer told the Austrian Press Agency he hopes to promote dialogue between the countries and will address Putin's "war crimes" in Ukraine.

Nehammer's plans drew immediate fallout in Ukraine. The deputy mayor of Mariupol, Sergei Orlow, told the German outlet Bild that the meeting was not appropriate.

"The war crimes that Russia is currently committing on Ukrainian soil are still taking place,” he told Bild. "I don't understand how to have a conversation with Putin at this time, how to do business with him."

Russia scrambling to bolster troop strength

In response to mounting losses, the Russian armed forces are trying to bolster troop numbers by bringing back veterans discharged from the military over the last 10 years, according to an assessment from the British Defense Ministry. Efforts to generate more fighting power also include trying to recruit from the Moldovan separatist Transnistria region, the ministry said.

The assessment was released one day after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, promising a new package of financial and military aid for Ukraine's "struggle against Russia’s barbaric campaign."

"The Ukrainians have the courage of a lion," Johnson tweeted. "President @ZelenskyyUa has given the roar of that lion. The UK stands unwaveringly with the people of Ukraine."

NATO leader calls for 'reset' and more defense spending

Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is looking to “reset” the alliance and have member states increase their defense spending, he told the Daily Telegraph in the United Kingdom.

“What we see now is a new reality, a new normal for European security,” Stoltenberg said. “Therefore, we have now asked our military commanders to provide options for what we call a reset, a more longer-term adaptation of NATO.”

Stoltenberg said not all NATO members are spending 2% of their gross domestic product on national defense and would like to see them meet that threshold. He pointed to a plan by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to increase defense spending by 100 billion euros over the next two years to get to 2% of GDP.

“With the size of the German economy, this really makes a huge difference also for NATO'S total defense spending,” he said.

Ukraine foreign minister says country should have been in NATO long ago

Ukraine would not be struggling to defend itself against Russia's onslaught if Ukraine had been allowed to join NATO more than a decade ago, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Sunday on Meet the Press. He said a "strategic mistake" was made by Germany and France in 2008 when they rejected efforts by the U.S. and other allies to bring Ukraine into the defense alliance.

“If we were a member of NATO, this war wouldn't take place,” Kuleba said. “The strategic mistake is something that we are paying for. It's not Germany or France that are paying the costs for this mistake. It's Ukraine.”

He credited the U.S. with doing "more than any other country in the world to provide us with necessary weapons” but said weapons need to come faster. All the parties spend too much time discussing whether Ukraine should be given offensive versus defensive weapons, he said.

Petraeus predicts 'more of what we have seen' as war evolves

Retired four-star general and former CIA director David Petraeus said Sunday on CNN's State of the Union that onlookers should expect “more of what we have seen” now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned over military operations in Ukraine to Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov.

Dvornikov led military forces in Syria, where the Russian military was known for “depopulating” areas, Petraeus said. He said the missile strike on a train station in Kramatorsk that killed dozens was the first major operation under Dvornikov’s leadership. Petraeus said the war is now focused in the Donbas region in the east and parts of the south. He said if the Russian military can take over land outside of the separatist states in the Donbas region and grab some land north of Crimea, Putin can spin the success as a win.

Kyiv mayor pleads for more weapons for Ukraine military

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko and his brother Wladimir Klitschiko appeared Sunday on ABC This Week and said the country needed weapons to continue fighting the Russians, even as the war with the nuclear power is changing.

“Weapons support is very, very important for us in this critical time – and we see who are the real friends of Ukraine,” Vitali said.

“We cannot defend our country with our fists,” Wladimir Klitschiko said.

He said Russia pulling out of Kyiv did not end the war, but changed where it is being fought. He said fighting continues in the south and the east. “We are expecting Russian military forces being back and targeting the capital of Ukraine.”

Wladimir Klitschiko also said the second thing the country needs is for the western world to continue to isolate Russia economically. “Every cent and every trade that you do with Russia … they’re using for weapons to kill us,” he said.

Russia's leadership change means continued 'brutality,' Psaki says

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told Fox News Sunday that a move at the top of the Russian military operation in Ukraine is a sign of more "brutality" to come.

"The reports were seeing of a change in military leadership and putting a general in charge who was responsible for the brutality and the atrocities we saw in Syria shows that there's going to be a continuation of what we've already seen on the ground in Ukraine, and that's what we are expecting," Psaki said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has named Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, to oversee the war, media outlets have reported. He has been described as the "Butcher of Syria," having led brutal campaigns in that country. The Kremlin's acknowledgement last week of casualties in the war was unexpected, Psaki added.

"Rarely do they acknowledge from the Russian leadership, any elements of weakness or any elements of defeat," she said.

Ukraine says 19,000 Russian troops have been killed

The Defense Ministry of Ukraine said Russia has lost over 19,000 troops and thousands of pieces of military equipment in 46 days of war. The ministry posted its tally to Twitter early Sunday.

Ukraine listed Russia’s human toll at about 19,300 personnel. The ministry calculated Moscow’s military equipment loss at 1,384 vehicles, 722 tanks, 1,911 armored vehicles and seven watercraft. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told British media on Thursday that Russia had experienced “significant losses of troops.” On Friday, he pointed to the official defense ministry tally of 1,351 soldiers dead.

In late March, NATO estimated that Russia may have lost as many as 15,000 troops, and up to 40,000 killed, wounded or taken prisoner.

Refugee count rises to 4.5M

The number of people who have streamed out of Ukraine since war broke out on Feb. 24 has risen to over 4.5 million, the U.N. reported Sunday.

The U.N. refugee agency reported on its data site the higher number, which originates from a number of sources, but mainly border crossing points.

Nearly 2.6 million of those refugees have arrived in Poland, followed by over 686,000 in Romania. As many as 404,000 have arrived in Russia since war broke out, according to the figures. The agency notes many refugees may have moved on to other countries, beyond the neighboring country into which they initially crossed.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Analysis: Biden is set to unveil $1.8B weapons deal for Ukraine ...

CNN —

US President Joe Biden is expected to announce an additional $1.8 billion in security assistance to Ukraine during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s expected visit to the White House. The significant boost in aid is expected to be headlined by the Patriot missile defense systems that are included in the package, a US official told CNN.

What are details of the expected weapons deal?

There are two key headline deliverables: first, the Patriot missile systems. Complex, accurate, and expensive, they have been described as the US’s “gold standard” of air defense. NATO preciously guards them, and they require the personnel who operate them – almost 100 in a battalion for each weapon – to be properly trained.

The second are precision-guided munitions for Ukrainian jets. Ukraine, and Russia, largely are equipped with munitions that are “dumb” – fired roughly towards a target. Ukraine has been provided with more and more Western standard precision artillery and missiles, like Howitzers and HIMARS respectively.

The new deal will likely include the supply of guidance kits, or Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which Ukraine can use to bolt on to their unguided missiles or bombs. This will increase their accuracy and the rate in which Kyiv’s forces burn through ammunition. A lot of the $1.8 billion is expected to fund munitions replacements and stocks.

Ukrainian servicemen ride American self-propelled howitzers in Donetsk. Gleb Garanich/Reuters

What difference will it make to the war?

These two headline packages alone could impact the course of the war. Russia’s most potent threat now is the constant bombardment of energy infrastructure. It is making winter colder and unbearable for some, plunging cities into darkness of up 12 hours a day and sometimes longer, in the hope of sapping high Ukrainian morale.

Patriot air defense systems could intercept a large number of Russia’s missiles and attack drones – although Ukraine already claims a high success rate; on Monday, for example, it said 30 out of 35 missiles had been stopped. The Patriot is also a sign NATO’s best technology is on the table to help Ukraine win the war, or at least hold Russia back.

In this February 20, 2020 file photo, a member of the US Air Force stands near a Patriot missile battery at the Prince Sultan Air Base in al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AP

More precision weapons are vital: they ensure Ukraine hits its targets, and not any civilians remaining nearby. And it means Ukraine does not go through the hundreds or thousands of shells Russia appears to burn through as it blanket bombards areas it wants to capture.

The consumption rate of munitions for both sides will become an existential issue as the war drags into its second year.

How will Russia react?

Noisily, but that may be all. Kremlin watchers like to parse the latest statements from the Russian President Vladimir Putin each time US weapons deliveries improve Ukraine’s position. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday the latest tranche “leads to an aggravation of the conflict and does not bode well for Ukraine.”

But Moscow is struggling to equip and rally its conventional forces, and, with the exception of its nuclear forces, appears to be running out of new cards to play. China and India have joined the West in open statements against the use of nuclear force, which has made that option even less likely.

Western analysts have noted Russia has grumbled consistently about these deliveries, but been relatively muted in its practical response to the crossing of what, as recently as January, might have been considered “red lines.”

Are there more such deals in the pipeline?

Yes. There is an enormous $45 billion aid package in the works, and while not all military, it is part of a consistent drumbeat from the Biden administration. The message is simple: Ukraine is receiving as much aid as Washington can provide, short of boots on the ground, and that aid will not stop.

Whatever the eventual truth of the matter – and military aid is opaque at the best of times – Biden wants Putin to hear nothing but headline figures in the billions, to sap Russian resolve, push European partners to help more, and make Ukraine’s resources seem limitless.

How much bipartisan support does Biden have for the deal?

This is trickier. Congress’s likely new Speaker, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has warned the Biden administration cannot expect a “blank cheque” from the new GOP-led House of Representatives.

The remnants of the Trumpist “America First” elements of that party have echoed doubts about how much aid the US should really be sending to the edges of eastern Europe.

Realistically, the bill for the slow defeat of Russia in this dark and lengthy conflict is relatively light for Washington, given its near trillion-dollar annual defense budget.

Video by CNN affiliate TVN in Poland captures the moment Zelensky arrived by train in Przemysl, near the Polish/Ukrainian border, on his way to Washington on Wednesday, December 21. TVN POLAND

Zelensky’s physical appearance in Washington is surely designed to remind Republicans of the urgency of Ukraine’s fight and how a defeat for Kyiv would lead Moscow’s nuclear-backed brutality right to the doorstep of NATO, and then likely drag the US into a boots-on-the ground war with Russia.

He is an inspiring rhetorician, and – as a former reality TV star turned unexpected president – the embodiment of how Putin’s war of choice has turned ordinary Ukrainians into wartime heroes.

US tested hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet to avoid ...

CNN —

The US successfully tested a hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet for two weeks to avoid escalating tensions with Russia as President Joe Biden was about to travel to Europe, according to a defense official familiar with the matter.

The Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) was launched from a B-52 bomber off the west coast, the official said, in the first successful test of the Lockheed Martin version of the system. A booster engine accelerated the missile to high speed, at which point the air-breathing scramjet engine ignited and propelled the missile at hypersonic speeds of Mach 5 and above.

The official offered scant details of the missile test, only noting the missile flew above 65,000 feet and for more than 300 miles. But even at the lower end of hypersonic range – about 3,800 miles per hour – a flight of 300 miles is less than 5 minutes.

The test came days after Russia says it used its own hypersonic missile during its invasion of Ukraine, claiming it targeted an ammunition warehouse in western Ukraine.

US officials downplayed the significance of the Russian use of their hypersonic Kinzhal missile. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he did not view it as “some sort of game changer” after the Russians announced the missile launch. Days later, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said it was “hard to know what exactly the justification” was for the launch, since it targeted a stationary storage facility.

“That’s a pretty significant sledgehammer to take out a target like that,” Kirby said at the time.

The Kinzhal missile is simply an air-launched version of the Russian Iskander short-range ballistic missile. In other words, it is a variation of an established technology as opposed to a revolution in hypersonic weaponry. The US test was of a more sophisticated and difficult air-breathing scramjet engine. The HAWC missile also has no warhead, instead relying on its kinetic energy to destroy the target.

At the time of the US test, Biden was preparing for a visit to NATO allies in Europe, including a stop in Poland where he met with Ukraine’s foreign minister and defense minister.

The US has been careful not to take steps or make statements that could unnecessarily escalate the tensions between Washington and Moscow. On Friday, the US canceled a test of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to avoid any misinterpretation by Russia. Austin had already postponed the test in early March to avoid any actions that could be misconstrued by Russia at such a sensitive time.

In general, the US has also remained somewhat discreet about the weapons and equipment it sends into Ukraine. Only in the latest $300 million security assistance package did the Defense Department list specific systems and weapons.

The US has also opposed the transfer of fighter aircraft to Ukraine through the United States, concerned that the Kremlin could interpret such a move as the US and NATO entering the conflict in Ukraine.

US officials remained quiet about this latest hypersonic test for two weeks for similar reasons, the defense official said, careful not to provoke the Kremlin or President Vladimir Putin, especially as Russian forces expanded their bombardment of Ukraine.

The US test is the second successful test of a HAWC missile, and it is the first of the Lockheed Martin version of the weapon. Last September, the Air Force tested the Raytheon HAWC, powered by a Northrop Grumman scramjet engine.

The test met all primary objectives, according to a press release from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), including the missile’s integration and release, safe separation from the launch aircraft, booster firing, and cruise. Then too officials offered few details about the flight, with no mention of how fast the missile flew or what distance it traveled. The release only stated that the missile traveled at speeds greater than Mach 5.

The US has placed a renewed emphasis on hypersonic weapons following successful Russian and Chinese tests in recent months, exacerbating the concern in Washington that the US is falling behind on a military technology considered critical for the future.

In the FY23 defense budget, the Biden administration has requested $7.2 billion for long range fires, including hypersonic missiles. In a report last year, the Government Accountability Office identified 70 efforts related to the development of hypersonic weapons, expected to cost nearly $15 billion between 2015 and 2024.

One month after the first successful HAWC test, the US suffered a setback when the test of a different hypersonic system failed. The failure came just as reports emerged that China had successfully tested a hypersonic glide vehicle over the summer and shortly after Russia claimed to have successfully tested its submarine-launched hypersonic missile, dubbed the Tsirkon.

China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely ...

Seoul, South Korea CNN —

On his first trip to Asia as United States President last week, Joe Biden gave his strongest warning yet to Beijing that Washington was committed to defending Taiwan militarily in the event of an attack from China.

Biden’s comments, which compared a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, appeared to deviate from Washington’s decades-old policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the issue and seemingly raised the possibility of a military clash between US and Chinese forces.

It’s the third time Biden has made similar remarks since taking office and, just as on the other two occasions, they were quickly walked back by the White House – which insists its policy has not changed. However, it inevitably raises the question: if China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it?

And the alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, like the US or Japan, could bring to a fight. That means that if China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.

But there’s a caveat; while China could likely prevail, any victory would come at an extremely bloody price for both Beijing and its adversaries.

Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. US government documents put the number of killed, injured and missing from both sides during the almost three-month-long Normandy campaign at almost half a million troops.

And the civilian carnage could be far, far worse.

Taiwan’s population of 24 million people is packed into dense urban areas like the capital Taipei, with an average of 9,575 people per square kilometer. Compare that to Mariupol, Ukraine – devastated in the war with Russia – and with an average of 2,690 people per square kilometer.

Despite its numerical advantages in sea-, air- and land-based forces in the region, China has Achilles heels in each arena of war that would force Beijing to think long and hard about whether an invasion is worth the overwhelming human cost.

Here are some scenarios of how a Chinese invasion might play out:

The naval war

China has the world’s largest navy, with around 360 combat vessels – bigger than the US’ fleet of just under 300 ships.

Beijing also has the world’s most-advanced merchant fleet, a large coast guard and, experts say, a maritime militia – fishing boats unofficially aligned with the military – giving it access to hundreds of additional vessels that could be used to transport the hundreds of thousands of troops that analysts say China would need for an amphibious invasion.

And those troops would need massive amounts of supplies.

“For Beijing to have reasonable prospects of victory, the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) would have to move thousands of tanks, artillery guns, armored personnel vehicles, and rocket launchers across with the troops. Mountains of equipment and lakes of fuel would have to cross with them,” Ian Easton, a senior director at the Project 2049 Institute, wrote in The Diplomat last year.

Getting a force of that size across the 110 miles (177 kilometers) of the Taiwan Strait would be a long, dangerous mission during which those vessels carrying the troops and equipment would be sitting ducks.

“The thought about China invading Taiwan, that’s a massacre for the Chinese navy,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

That’s because Taiwan has been stocking up on cheap and effective land-based anti-ship missiles, similar to the Neptunes Ukraine used to sink the Russian cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea in April.

“Taiwan is mass-producing these things. And they’re small, it’s not like (China) can take them all out,” O’Brien said.

“What’s cheap is a surface-to-ship missile, what’s expensive is a ship.”

The Chinese guided-missile destroyer Changsha returns to a port in Sanya City, China, in March 2017. Zeng Tao/Xinhua/Getty Images

Still, China could – given its numerical advantage – simply decide the losses were worth it, pointed out Thomas Shugart, a former US Navy submarine captain and now an analyst at the Center for a New American Security.

“There’s gonna be hundreds if not thousands of (Chinese) vessels there to soak up those (Taiwanese) missiles,” Shugart said.

Missiles aside, China would face massive logistical hurdles in landing enough soldiers. Conventional military wisdom holds that an attacking force should outnumber defenders 3 to 1.

“With a potential defending force of 450,000 Taiwanese today … China would need over 1.2 million soldiers (out of a total active force of more than 2 million) that would have to be transported in many thousands of ships,” Howard Ullman, a former US Navy officer and professor at the US Naval War College, wrote in a February essay for the Atlantic Council.

He estimated such an operation would take weeks and that despite China’s maritime strength, it “simply lacks the military capability and capacity to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan for the foreseeable future.”

Aircraft carrier killers

Some of the problems that would face China’s navy in Taiwan would also face any US naval force sent to defend the island.

The US Navy sees its aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships, bristling with F-35 and F/A-18 jets, as its spear in the Pacific and would have a numerical advantage in this area. The US has 11 carriers in total, compared to China’s two. However, only about half are combat ready at any one time and even these might be vulnerable.

O’Brien and others point out that the People’s Liberation Army has more than 2,000 conventionally armed missiles, many of which it has developed with the US Navy’s prized aircraft carriers in mind.

Of particular concern would be China’s DF-26 and DF-21D – touted by Beijing’s state-run Global Times tabloid in 2020 as “aircraft carrier killers” and the “world’s first ballistic missiles capable of targeting large and medium-sized vessels.”

As O’Brien puts it, “The US better be careful thinking about, in any kind of war environment, sending carrier battle groups close to China … If you’re fighting a state-to-state war, you’re going to stay far away from shore.”

Others are more confident in the US carriers.

Rear Adm. Jeffery Anderson, the commander of the US Navy’s Carrier Strike Group Three centered on the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, recently told CNN his ships are more than ready to deal with the kind of missiles that sank the Moskva.

“One thing I do know about our US ships is they’re extremely survivable. Not only are they lethal, but they are extremely survivable,” he said.

A Chinese air force fighter jet takes off during training exercises in 2017. Liu Chang/Xinhua/Getty Images

The air war

China is likely to seek air superiority early into any conflict, analysts say, and may feel it has an advantage in the skies.

Flight Global’s 2022 directory of the world’s air forces shows the PLA with almost 1,600 combat aircraft, compared to Taiwan’s fewer than 300. The directory shows the US with more than 2,700 combat aircraft, but those cover the world while China’s are all in the region.

Video Ad Feedback Taiwan holds ceremony for advanced F-16V fighter jets 02:11 - Source: CNN

In the air war, China also will have learned from Russia’s failures in Ukraine – where Moscow took months assembling its ground forces yet failed to soften up the terrain for them with a bombing campaign – and is more likely to emulate the “shock and awe” bombardments that preceded the US’ invasions of Iraq.

“I’m sure the PLA is learning from what they’re seeing,” Shugart said. “You can read open-source translations of their strategic documents. They learned very carefully from what we did in Desert Storm and Kosovo.”

But even in the air China would face significant difficulties.

A guided-missile-armed J-20 stealth fighter jet of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force performs at Airshow China 2018. Shu ying/Imagine China/Reuters

Russia’s failure to quickly seize control of the skies in Ukraine initially dumbfounded many analysts. Some put the failure down to the cheap antiaircraft missiles Western militaries have supplied to Kyiv.

Taiwan has deals with the United States to supply it with Stinger antiaircraft missiles and Patriot missile defense batteries. And it also has been investing heavily in its own missile production facilities over the past three years in a project, when completed this summer, will see its missile production capabilities triple, according to a Janes report in March.

On the other hand, China would have an advantage over the US due to its closeness to Taiwan.

A recent war game run by the Center for a New American Security concluded that an aerial conflict between the US and China would likely end in stalemate.

Commenting on the result to Air Force Magazine, Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, US Air Force deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, said that while the US was used to dominating the skies some factors weren’t in its favor.

China had “invested in modern aircraft and weapons to fight us,” he noted, and US forces would also face the “tyranny of distance” – most of the US air power used in the war game operated out of the Philippines, about 500 miles (800 kilometers) away.

The war game simulated Chinese forces beginning their campaign by trying to take out the nearest US bases in places like Guam and Japan.

Hinote likened that move to Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, saying China would be motivated by “many of the same reasons.”

“The attack is designed to give Chinese forces the time they need to invade and present the world with a fait accompli,” he told the magazine.

China has a growing arsenal of short-, medium- and intermediate range ballistic missiles that can reach these far-flung targets.

As of 2020, the PLA had at least 425 missile launchers capable of hitting those US bases, according to the China Power project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

A Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldier fires an anti-tank rocket during a live-fire military exercise in Wuzhong, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China in 2019. Reuters

The ground war

Even in a scenario where China was willing to take these risks and managed to get a significant amount of troops ashore, its forces would then face another uphill battle.

Taiwan has about 150,000 troops and 2.5 million reservists – and its entire national defense strategy is based on countering a Chinese invasion.

Like their counterparts in Ukraine the Taiwanese would have the advantage of home turf, knowing the ground and being highly motivated to defend it.

First, the PLA would need to find a decent landing spot – ideally close to both the mainland and a strategic city such as Taipei with nearby port and airport facilities. Experts have identified just 14 beaches that would fit the bill and Taiwan is well aware of which ones those are. Its engineers have spent decades digging tunnels and bunkers to protect them.

Taiwan’s troops would also be relatively fresh compared to their Chinese counterparts, who would be drained from the journey over and would still need to push through the island’s western mud flats and mountains, with only narrow roads to assist them, toward Taipei.

Chinese troops could be dropped in from the air, but a lack of paratroopers in the PLA makes it unlikely.

Another problem for Chinese troops would be their lack of battlefield experience. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam.

Soldiers of Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) fire a mortar during a live-fire military exercise in Anhui province, China May 22, 2021. cnsphoto/Reuters

In that effort, China “really got a bloody nose, it was not very successful operation,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

“So China’s military today is not battle tested, and it could suffer great losses, if it indeed attacked Taiwan,” Glaser said.

Others pointed out that even battle-tested troops could struggle against a well-motivated defensive force – noting that the Russian military was bogged down in Ukraine despite its recent fighting experience in Syria and Georgia.

Still, as with the other scenarios, it is not only Chinese forces that might be handicapped by a lack of experience. Taiwan’s troops have also not been tested, and depending on the scenario, there are holes in even the US’ experience. As Shugart put it: “There is not a single US naval officer who has sunk another ship in combat.”

What are the chances China attacks?

Glaser, the German Marshall Fund analyst, thinks a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely.

“I think that the PLA lacks full confidence that it can seize and control Taiwan. The PLA itself talks about some of the deficiencies in its capability,” she said.

“And obviously, the war in Ukraine highlights some of the challenges that China could face; it is certainly much harder to launch a war 100 miles across a body of water than it is across land borders, (such as those) between Russia and Ukraine,” she said.

She noted that the strong Ukrainian resistance may be giving Taiwan’s people reason to fight for their land.

“Given how Ukraine has really demonstrated a very high morale and willingness to defend its freedoms … I think that this is likely to change the calculus of not only military leaders in China, but hopefully also of (Chinese leader) Xi Jinping personally,” she said.

O’Brien, the University of St. Andrews professor, wrote in The Spectator this year that any war over Taiwan would lead to devastating losses on all sides, something that should make their leaders tread carefully before committing troops.

“If the Ukrainian war teaches us anything, it is that war is almost always a rash choice. Don’t underestimate your opponent, and don’t assume your systems will all work that well.”

A Chinese amy tank takes part in military drills in 2018. Mladen Antonov/AFP/Getty Images

Any other option?

Of course, the PLA has options other than a full-blown invasion.

These include taking outlying Taiwanese islands or imposing a quarantine on the main island, Robert Blackwill and Philip Zelikow wrote last year in a report for the Council on Foreign Relations.

Video Ad Feedback Residents of Taipei on edge about China after Russia invades Ukraine 02:52 - Source: CNN

Possible PLA targets could be Taiping Island, Taiwan’s most far-flung outpost in the South China Sea; the tiny Pratas Island, a small outpost 170 nautical miles (320 kilometers) southeast of Hong Kong; Kinmen and Matsu islands, tiny territories just a few miles off mainland China’s coast; or Penghu in the Taiwan Strait.

While a PLA victory of any of the four is almost assured, it could come at the cost of galvanizing support for Taiwan in the rest of the world – much as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has united the West against it.

Blackwill and Zelikow said the quarantine option might be more effective.

“In a quarantine scenario, the Chinese government would effectively take control of the air and sea borders of Taiwan,” they wrote. “The Chinese government would run effectively a clearance operation offshore or in the air to screen incoming ships and aircraft. The screeners could then wave along what they regarded as innocent traffic.”

Anything regarded as belligerent, such as US military aid for Taiwan, could be blocked or confiscated as a violation of Chinese sovereignty, they say. Meanwhile, China could allow the Taiwan government to function as normal except for foreign affairs.

This option would have an advantage in China’s eyes: the ball would be in the US’ court as to whether to use force to end the quarantine. Then it would be the US that would have to consider whether to risk a war that could cost countless lives.

Brad Lendon Ivan Watson
Brad Lendon
Ivan Watson

5 things to know for December 22: Winter weather, Ukraine, Jan. 6 ...

CNN —

Get '5 Things' in your inbox If your day doesn’t start until you’re up to speed on the latest headlines, then let us introduce you to your new favorite morning fix. Sign up here for the ‘5 Things’ newsletter.

Severe winter weather is threatening holiday travel on some of the busiest days of the year, but there are ways you can avoid a fiasco if you have a trip coming up. Arrive at airports early, pack light and consider rerouting your itinerary if your flights are in the path of severe blizzard conditions. Also, keep an eye on possible alerts from your airlines, as more than 1,100 flights today within, into or out of the US have already been canceled. Here’s what else you need to know to Get Up to Speed and On with Your Day.

(You can get “5 Things You Need to Know Today” delivered to your inbox daily. Sign up here.)

1. Winter weather

A major storm system, which the National Weather Service is calling a “once in a generation type event,” is touching nearly every state in the US. More than 100 million people are currently under winter weather and wind chill alerts as record-breaking temperature drops are being observed. Denver International Airport saw a 37-degree drop in temperature over one hour Wednesday, which officials said is the biggest ever drop recorded at that location. That same day, Cheyenne, Wyoming, also saw a 30-degree drop in temperature in just 10 minutes. Governors in Georgia, Oklahoma and Kentucky have each declared a state emergency, as several other state leaders activate emergency response operations. Major cities in the South – including Nashville, Memphis, Birmingham, Alabama, and Jackson, Mississippi – are all expected to see snow today.

2. Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude for US support in an impassioned address to Congress during his first overseas trip since the Russian invasion of his country began. In his speech Wednesday, Zelensky called for more US help and stronger sanctions against Moscow, telling lawmakers Ukraine “will never surrender,” and that their support “is not charity” but an investment in democracy. Earlier in the day, President Joe Biden had announced the US will send Kyiv a Patriot missile defense system as part of an additional $1.8 billion assistance package, and Zelensky reiterated that air defense systems are crucial to countering Russian attacks. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared there would be a substantial investment in his military as the war drags on.

3. January 6

House Republicans released a report Wednesday focused on security failures at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, highlighting well-documented breakdowns in intelligence sharing, Capitol security and coordination between various law enforcement agencies responding to the riot. Republicans cast the report as a rebuttal to the bipartisan House select committee’s investigation into the day’s events as they are set to take control of the chamber – and endeavor to take back the narrative. The Democratic-led select committee had planned to release its final report on Wednesday but has delayed the rollout until today. An executive summary released Monday laid blame for the insurrection squarely on former President Donald Trump.

4. Crypto

Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange FTX, is expected to soon be arraigned in the US after being extradited from the Bahamas Wednesday night. He faces eight counts of fraud and conspiracy following an indictment by federal prosecutors. In the wake of the company’s collapse, federal prosecutors in New York charged him with defrauding investors and stealing billions from FTX customer assets to pay for losses at his hedge fund. If convicted on all charges, the 30-year-old could face life in prison. Two of Bankman-Fried’s former senior executives were also charged Wednesday for their roles in the yearslong scheme. They pleaded guilty to multiple criminal charges and are cooperating with federal prosecutors, according to court records.

5. Covid-19

Parts of China hit hard by rising Covid-19 cases have resorted to rationing the amount of medicine for sale down to the pill as the country faces a huge wave of infections. Local versions of Tylenol and Advil – some of the most common drugs used to alleviate flu-like symptoms – are nearly impossible to get at drugstores across China, fueling anger and concern. In some areas, purchases of ibuprofen are being strictly limited to a maximum of six tablets or 3 ounces of liquid per customer per week. Meanwhile in the US, Covid-19 and other causes have driven life expectancy down to 76.4 years, the lowest it has been since 1996, CDC data shows.

BREAKFAST BROWSE

Runaway llama outsmarts officers in lengthy police chase

The adventurous llama caused some drama after escaping her enclosure in Fairfax County, Virginia. Watch the video here.

Santa’s house has soared in value over the past year, Zillow says

Even prices in the North Pole are going up: Santa’s Arctic abode, a charming (but fictional) 3-bedroom cabin, is now worth $1.1 million – an increase of 12% over the past year.

Need a new Christmas movie?

Speaking of Santa, when you’re tempted to watch “Home Alone” for the tenth time, consider these festive alternatives.

John Mayer reveals inspiration for ‘Your Body Is a Wonderland’

Fans have long speculated that Mayer’s Grammy-winning 2002 single was inspired by one of his former celebrity girlfriends. He’s finally revealed who the song was really about.

Allison Holker Boss posts for the first time since husband tWitch’s death

“Oh how my heart aches,” the dancer wrote in an Instagram post, one week after her late husband’s death.

IN MEMORIAM

Pittsburgh Steelers legend Franco Harris, arguably best known for the “Immaculate Reception,” one of the most iconic touchdown plays in NFL history, has died at the age of 72, the Pro Football Hall of Fame announced on Wednesday. Harris was a four-time Super Bowl champion, winning MVP honors in Super Bowl IX after rushing for 158 yards in the game against the Minnesota Vikings to help the Steelers capture their first-ever league title. The nine-time Pro Bowler was enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1990.

TODAY’S NUMBER

8

That’s how many cars were involved in a Thanksgiving pileup in the San Francisco Bay Area after a Tesla’s “full-self-driving” software braked unexpectedly, the driver told police. The crash led to nine people being treated for minor injuries including one juvenile who was hospitalized, according to a California Highway Patrol traffic crash report. Tesla’s driver-assist technologies are already being investigated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration following reports of unexpected braking that occurs “without warning, at random, and often repeatedly in a single drive.” The agency has received hundreds of complaints from Tesla drivers.

TODAY’S QUOTE

“This bill is hanging by a thread.”

– Democratic Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, warning Wednesday that Democrats are struggling to reach an agreement with Republicans on the $1.7 trillion federal spending bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, has said senators are “making good progress” toward securing an agreement by the end of the week, before government funding runs out. Talks are expected to continue this morning.

TODAY’S WEATHER

Check your local forecast here>>>

AND FINALLY

One Husband’s Tribute to a Timeless Love

One husband’s tribute to a timeless love

Charles “LaLa” Evans put together a powerful memorial to remember his late wife Louise after more than 59 years of marriage. Watch this short video to see how he celebrates their beautiful love story. (Click here to view.)

US to announce purchase of medium- to long-range surface-to-air ...

CNN —

The US plans to announce as soon as this week that it has purchased an advanced, medium-to-long range surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine, a source familiar with the announcement tells CNN.

President Joe Biden, who is currently meeting with G7 leaders in Germany for a summit primarily focused on Ukraine, announced recently that the US would provide Ukraine with “more advanced rocket systems and munitions” as its war with Russia grinds on. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is slated to virtually address Biden and other G7 leaders on Monday.

In response to requests by Ukrainian forces, other military assistance is also likely to be announced this week, including additional artillery ammunition and counter-battery radars. Ukrainian officials have asked for the missile defense system, known as a NASAMS system, given the weapons can hit targets more than 100 miles away, though the Ukrainian forces will likely need to be trained on the systems, a source said. The NASMAS system the same one that protects Washington, DC, and the area around the nation’s capital.

The US has been steadily announcing additional security assistance for Ukraine. Last week, the Biden administration announced an additional $450 million in military assistance for Ukraine, giving it four more multiple launch rocket systems and artillery ammunition for other systems.

And earlier this month, the Biden administration said it was providing an additional $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, a package that includes shipments of additional howitzers, ammunition and coastal defense systems.

CNN reported last week that US assessments of the war increasingly envision a long and punishing battle in the eastern part of Ukraine, with high personnel and equipment losses on both sides.

US officials believe that Russian forces plan to maintain intense attacks in the east, characterized by heavy artillery and missile strikes, with the intention of wearing down Ukrainian forces and NATO resolve over time.

For Ukraine’s part, its military has been burning through Soviet-era ammunition that fits older systems, and Western governments have been facing a tough decision on whether they want to continue increasing their assistance to the country, something Biden has already pledged to do.

“We will continue to lead the world in providing historic assistance to support Ukraine’s fight for freedom,” the President wrote in a New York Times op-ed last month.

Kaitlan Collins Natasha Bertrand Phil Mattingly