'I'm not looking for conflict': Biden discusses three-hour meeting with ...

Bali, Indonesia CNN —

President Joe Biden held a three-hour talk Monday with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, their first in-person encounter since Biden took office and an opportunity that both sides appeared to hope would lead to an improvement in rapidly deteriorating relations.

Emerging afterward, Biden told reporters he was “open and candid” with Xi about the range of matters where Beijing and Washington disagree. He cast doubt on an imminent invasion of self-governing Taiwan, and seemed hopeful his message about avoiding all-out conflict was received.

Still, the US president was frank that he and Xi came nowhere near resolving the litany of issues that have helped drive the US-China relationship to its lowest point in decades.

“I’m not suggesting this is kumbaya,” Biden said at a news conference, “but I do not believe there’s a need for concern, as one of you raised a legitimate question, a new Cold War.”

Biden entered Monday’s talks hoping for an opportunity to take stock with Xi of the world’s most important bilateral relationship. He described Xi as not overly confrontational but instead “the way he’s always been: direct and straightforward.”

“He was clear, and I was clear that we will defend American interests and values, promote universal human rights and stand up for the international order and work in lockstep with our allies and partners,” Biden said. “We’re going to compete vigorously but I’m not looking for conflict.”

In a sign both men arrived to meeting hoping to improve the souring relationship, Biden announced his Secretary of State Antony Blinken would visit China and said officials from each country would begin working together through issues. Formal talks on climate cooperation between the US and China are expected to resume as well as part of a broader set of agreements between Biden and Xi, two US officials tell CNN.

China previously halted talks – viewed by the Biden administration as a key area where the two nations must work together – as part of retaliation for the visit to Taiwan by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. The US and Chinese envoys for climate change are talking, but the Biden administration will see what China is prepared to do to make concrete progress, one of the US officials said.

US Climate Envoy John Kerry’s spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on whether formal climate talks between the two countries were back on.

The White House said in a statement after the meeting that Biden raised concerns about human rights and China’s provocations around Taiwan. But they found at least one area of apparent agreement – that nuclear weapons cannot be used in Ukraine, where that nation is trying to fight off a Russian invasion.

“President Biden and President Xi reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won,” a White House readout said, referring to the threat of nuclear weapons use in Ukraine.

Biden did underscore areas of potential cooperation with Xi, including on climate change, in talks that stretched past their expected time at a luxury hotel in Bali.

And he sought to convince Xi that a nuclear armed North Korea was not in China’s interests – particularly because further nuclear or long-range missile tests by Pyongyang could prompt Biden to scale up American military presence in the region.

“It’s difficult to determine whether or not China has the capacity” to convince Kim Jong Un to back off his tests, Biden said. “I’m confident China is not looking for North Korea to engage in further escalatory means.”

‘Good to see you’

The meeting began in the later afternoon with Biden and Xi walking toward each other from opposite sides of a hotel lobby, shaking hands in front of a row of US and Chinese flags. They smiled for cameras and Xi – through a translator – appeared to say, “Good to see you.”

“As leaders of our two nations, we share responsibility, in my view, to show that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything ever nearing conflict and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation,” Biden said as the talks got underway.

“The world expects, I believe, China and the United States to play key roles in addressing global challenges,” he said.

Speaking second, Xi seemed to offer what could be interpreted as a pointed message to his counterpart, who has spent more than half-a-century on the world stage.

“A statesman should think about and know where to lead his country,” Xi said through a translator. “He should also think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider world.”

The two leaders’ talks Monday could have consequences stretching months or even years as the world’s largest economies veer toward increasingly hostile relations.

The moments spent together on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit here will amount to only a fraction of the time the two men have been in each other’s company since 2011. Biden has claimed that as vice president, he spent north of 70 hours with Xi and traveled 17,000 miles with him across China and the United States – both exaggerations, but still reflective of a relationship that is now perhaps the most important on the planet.

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

China warns US not to cross ‘red line’ over Taiwan

Xi stated that Taiwan is the “first red line” that “must not be crossed” in China-US relations, according to a Chinese foreign ministry readout.

Referring to the “Taiwan question” as the “very core of China’s core interests” and “the bedrock of the political foundation” of China-US relations, Xi stated that peace and stability across the Taiwan strait and “Taiwan independence” is “as irreconcilable as water and fire.”

China’s ruling Communist Party has long claimed the self-ruled democracy of 24 million as an inseparable part of its territory, despite having never ruled over it, and has pledged to take it back – by force if necessary.

Video Ad Feedback CNN reporters explain one of the most contentious issues of US-China relations 05:31 - Source: CNN

In the meeting, Xi stated that basic norms of international relations and the three Sino-US joint communiques – which touches on the Taiwan issue – are the “most important guardrail and safety net” for bilateral relations and are “vitally important” for the two sides to “manage differences and disagreements and prevent confrontation and conflict.”

“We hope that the US side will match its words with action and abide by the one-China policy and the three joint communiques. President Biden has said on many occasions that the US does not support ‘Taiwan independence’ and has no intention to use Taiwan as a tool to seek advantages in competition with China or to contain China. We hope that the US side will act on this assurance to real effect,” according to the readout.

Xi also defended China’s human rights records and governance system, saying that China has “Chinese-style democracy” that fits its national conditions, according to the readout. He acknowledged the differences between China and the US, but stressed that they should not become “an obstacle to growing China-US relations.”

“The Chinese nation has the proud tradition of standing up for itself. Suppression and containment will only strengthen the will and boost the morale of the Chinese people,” the readout said.

A meeting long in the making

The meeting Monday took place at a remarkably low moment in US-China ties. Biden hoped coming face-to-face again after nearly two years communicating only by phone and video-conference can yield a more strategically valuable result, even if he entered the talks with little expectation they would produce anything concrete.

Relations have deteriorated rapidly amid economic disputes and an increasingly militarized standoff over Taiwan. The tensions have led to a decline in cooperation on areas where the two countries once shared common interests, like combating climate change and containing North Korea’s nuclear program.

In a national security strategy document released last month, Biden for the first time identified China as posing “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge,” and wrote the country was the “only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective.”

There was almost no expectation among American officials that any of those issues could be resolved simply by getting Biden and Xi in the same room. Just arranging the meeting itself required US and Chinese officials to establish lines of communication after Beijing furiously cut off most channels following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan over the summer.

“Every matter associated with this meeting, from phone calls to logistics, has been very carefully considered, negotiated, and engaged between the two sides,” a senior US administration official said.

Planning for Monday’s meeting predated Pelosi’s trip, and discussions continued between US and Chinese officials despite Beijing’s furor. The process was “serious, very sustained and professional in the best traditions of US-China diplomacy,” the official said.

A second official acknowledged the talks setting up the meeting were not always friendly.

“I won’t say that the conversations weren’t contentious because obviously there’s lots of areas where we have differences and challenges,” the official said. “The dozens of hours we have spent talking to our Chinese counterparts has definitely surfaced many of those issues.”

For his part, Biden takes meetings like this “incredibly seriously” and reads extensively beforehand. In meetings with advisers, he runs through various scenarios for how the meeting might go.

“He goes through ‘if this happens, then should we handle it this way,’” the first official said. “He understands that this is, in many respects, the most important bilateral relationship. And it’s his responsibility to manage it well and he takes that very, very seriously.”

Officials said in Monday’s meeting they expected Biden’s senior-most advisers to accompany him as part of his official delegation. And they said they expected Xi to similarly surround himself with top aides, though the US team entered the meeting expecting to see some new faces on the Chinese side amid an ongoing transition inside Xi’s inner circle.

Biden and Xi entered the meeting with momentum

For Xi, the trip to Bali also marked one of his first journeys abroad since the onset of the Covid pandemic, which prompted the Chinese government to impose strict lock downs and draconian restrictions. Xi’s reemergence on the physical world stage also comes on the heels of China’s Communist Party Congress in Beijing, during which he secured a norm-breaking third term as its leader.

Even a week ago, most inside the White House were expecting Biden to enter the talks comparatively weakened by Democratic losses in the midterm elections. But better-than-expected results for Democrats left the president feeling as if he was entering his meetings this week with the wind at his back, according to top aides.

“I know I’m coming in stronger, but I don’t need that,” Biden said of his own improved political fortunes on Saturday.

US officials previewing the meeting have stressed the Biden administration is not looking to come out of it with specific “deliverables,” including a joint statement listing areas of potential cooperation. Rather, the setting is aimed at offering both Biden and Xi a significant opportunity to better share their respective countries’ goals and perspectives.

“Xi is not an enigma to President Biden,” a senior administration official told CNN. “He knows him. And he is mindful of where Xi is trying to take China. He sees China as a competitor, and he feels confident the US can win that competition.”

China’s pandemic-era isolation, US officials say, had made it relatively harder in recent years to get a read on Beijing’s intentions abroad as Xi declined to travel outside of China – but they believe that is all about to change.

“We can expect them to be more assertive on the world stage,” the senior administration said. But, they added: “What that looks like is difficult to know right now.”

Sullivan said this week that finally substituting the pandemic-era video calls with a face-to-face meeting for the first time since Biden took office “takes the conversation to a different level strategically and allows the leaders to explore in deeper detail what each of them see in terms of their intentions and priorities.”

G20 summit: Xi Jingping starts first day with a whirlwind of meetings ...

Bali, Indonesia CNN —

After a near three-year absence from the world stage, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has embarked on a whirlwind of face-to-face meetings with Western leaders at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, as he looks to reassert China’s global influence.

Following a three-hour meeting on Monday with US President Joe Biden in an attempt to prevent their rivalry from spilling into open conflict, Xi on Tuesday held talks with the leaders of four US allies – Australia, France, the Netherlands and South Korea.

China’s relations with US allies have deteriorated to varying degrees in recent years, due to rising geopolitical tensions, disputes over trade and the origins of Covid-19 pandemic, as well as Beijing’s growing partnership with Moscow – despite Russia’s war on Ukraine.

While the flurry of in-person meetings are unlikely to completely reset relations, they could serve as a positive first step in restoring open communication channels – in some ways similar to the meeting between Xi and Biden.

For the majority of the pandemic, Xi limited his diplomatic activities to virtual summits and video conferences, hunkering down inside of China’s borders during a period of rising tensions with the West.

Meanwhile, Biden has sought to work closer with allies and partners to counter Beijing’s growing influence, framing the rivalry with China as part of the global clash between democracy and autocracy.

On Monday, Xi pushed back at that narrative. In a Chinese readout of the meeting, Xi described his country’s system of governance as “Chinese-style democracy,” in an apparent signal to US allies that ideological differences are not a barrier to relations with Beijing.

Stabilizing relations

The most anticipated in-person diplomacy by Xi on Tuesday was perhaps his meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, partly because ties between Beijing and Canberra have frayed significantly over the past years.

In a statement, Albanese called the meeting an “important step towards the stabilization of the Australia-China relationship.”

At the meeting, Xi told Albanese that good relations between Beijing and Canberra were in the “fundamental interests of both our peoples” and “conducive to peaceful development in the Asia-Pacific region.”

“Mr. Prime Minister – you have said on multiple occasions that you will handle our countries’ bilateral relations in a more balanced approach, for which I highly value,” Xi told Albanese.

The two countries have been locked in a bruising trade dispute and diplomatic freeze since early 2020, when China slapped tariffs on Australia following its call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

Geopolitics is also a sore point between the two nations. Canberra is alarmed by Beijing’s growing influence in the Pacific islands, while China is angered by Australia’s new military alliance with the US and the UK, intended to provide Australia with nuclear powered submarines and other advance weaponry.

Leaders of the two countries last met when Albanese’s predecessor, Scott Morrison, had brief informal discussions with Xi at the G20 in Japan in 2019. But it has been six years since leaders from the two sides have held a formal bilateral meeting, after then Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s sit-down with Xi at the G20 in the Chinese city of Hangzhou in 2016.

“We are always going to be better off when we talk to each other, calmly and directly,” Albanese said in his statement. “We will cooperate where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in our national interest.”

As the case with the meeting between Xi and Biden, few in Australia believe the meeting between Xi and Albanese can completely reset the two countries’ strained relations.

“Much has happened in the last six years when the leaders of the two countries last met and the geopolitical dynamics of the region have changed too much for a ‘reset,’” said Jennifer Hsu, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute in Australia.

“Furthermore, a certain and influential segment of Australia’s foreign policy and national security institutions have fundamentally reshaped how China is viewed and that is difficult to undo,” Hsu added.

John Lee, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington and former national security adviser to the Australian government, said core Chinese objectives – such as its South China Sea, Taiwan and South Pacific policies – are “fundamentally at odds with Australia’s core interests.”

“It may be a diplomatic reset of some sorts but not one in substance where both sides begin to genuinely approach each other in good faith and a preparedness to compromise,” Lee added.

Busy schedule

In a sign of Xi’s busy schedule, the Chinese leader and French President Emmanuel Macron squeezed in a meeting early on Tuesday, before both leaders showed up at the opening of the G20 summit.

The talks, which lasted for 43 minutes according to the French Presidency, saw Xi reiterate his support for a ceasefire and peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.

“Xi stressed China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is clear and consistent, advocating a ceasefire, a stop to war and peace talks,” a readout of the bilat from Chinese state media CCTV said.

A readout from the French Presidency said the two leaders “reaffirmed their firm position on preventing the use of nuclear weapons” in the war in Ukraine – a line that was not included in the Chinese readout.

France, like other European countries, has hardened its position on China in recent years, increasingly viewing the country as a competitor and security concern.

Xi also met South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Senegalese President Macky Sall, and is expected to meet a few more world leaders later on Tuesday.

China's Xi Jinping lectures Justin Trudeau at G20 over alleged leak ...

CNN —

Chinese leader Xi Jinping was captured by Canadian broadcasters in a rare candid moment on Wednesday, where he was filmed chiding his Canadian counterpart, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, over what he described as “leaked” discussions.

On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia, Xi chatted with Trudeau in Mandarin with a smile. But the English translation of what he said was a little less friendly.

“Everything we’ve discussed has been leaked to the papers and that is not appropriate,” Xi’s translator said.

Trudeau nods and Xi spoke again. “And that was not how the conversation was conducted,” the translator said.

“If there was sincerity on your part, than we shall conduct our discussion with an attitude of mutual respect, otherwise there might be unpredictable consequences,” Xi tells the Canadian leader in Mandarin.

Xi’s translator attempts to translate what was said, only getting to “If there was sincerity on your part,” before being cut off by Trudeau.

“In Canada we believe in a free and open and frank dialogue,” Trudeau said, adding “we will continue to work constructively together, but there will be things that we will disagree on.”

“Let’s create the conditions first,” the translator said on behalf of Xi in the video. The Chinese leader then shakes Trudeau’s hand and walked away with his entourage.

The exchange offers a rare glimpse of how Xi, whose public appearances are highly choreographed, interacts with other leaders.

Not every conversation will be “easy,” Trudeau said Wednesday, according to a statement he gave to the press after the exchange.

“But it’s extremely important we continue to stand up for the things that are important for Canadians. This is something we always do and we will continue to,” Trudeau said.

When asked about the incident, China’s foreign ministry said Canada should “create conditions with concrete actions” to improve ties with Beijing.

“China has no problem with candid conversations, but we would like these conversations to be carried out equally and with mutual respect, instead of pointing fingers condescendingly,” ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said Thursday. “As far as difficulties in recent China-Canada bilateral relations are concerned, it is clear that the responsibilities lie not with China.”

Mao also rejected characterizations of Xi’s remark as a threat, adding that the video should not be construed as Xi criticizing anyone.

The exchange between the two leaders comes as Xi looks to reassert China’s global influence at the summit in the island of Bali after a nearly three-year absence from the world stage.

China’s relations with United States allies have deteriorated to varying degrees in recent years, due to rising geopolitical tensions, disputes over trade and the origins of Covid-19 pandemic, as well as Beijing’s growing partnership with Moscow – despite Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Xi has sought to restore relationships at the summit, meeting with US President Joe Biden on Monday. He also held formal talks with the leaders of Australia, France, the Netherlands, South Africa, Spain, Senegal, Argentina, Indonesia and South Korea.

Canada was not afforded such a meeting, and the snub might relate to the countries choppy relationship since senior Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was detained in Canada in 2018. Two Canadians were detained nine days later in China. All three were released in 2021.

Xiaofei Xu Tara John
Xiaofei Xu
Tara John

Like Putin, Mexico president still mum on President-elect Biden's win

There's been no red carpet rolled out, no neighborly welcome, not even a nod on social media.

A month after the U.S. election, Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador hasn't publicly congratulated President-elect Joe Biden. His silence has raised concerns in Mexico and the Borderland about the future of the two neighbors' relationship, the tone of which can influence trade, immigration, security and drug enforcement.

An official inside the Biden transition team told the El Paso Times in an email that the president-elect "looks forward to a warm and constructive relationship with his Mexican counterpart," given that "the scale of the shared challenges we face require deep and concerted cooperation."

Citing unnamed sources in Mexico's Secretary of Foreign Relations, the Reuters news agency reported Tuesday that López Obrador would extend congratulations after the Electoral College votes on Dec. 14.

Still, the Mexican leader's silence has puzzled foreign policy experts and disappointed those who want to see a return to increased cooperation between the two nations on key issues.

Those include the implementation of labor and environmental provisions of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, including Mexico's enforcement of the rights of Mexican factory workers to unionize. They include a return to bilateral cooperation on humanitarian methods of curbing migration, as well as renewed attention to the simmering drug war in Mexican border cities.

In Juárez alone, nearly 1,500 people have been murdered this year, according to the Chihuahua State Attorney General's Office.

More:Did Trump just hand over a general accused of helping drug cartels to repay a favor?

The future ability of families to legally cross the border also hangs in the balance as the coronavirus drags on. The two countries lack a binational strategy to reopen U.S. border crossings, including those linking El Paso and Juárez, that have been closed to nonessential traffic and most Mexican nationals since March.

U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-El Paso, characterized López Obrador's silence as "extremely disappointing and disrespectful to the will of the American people."

“While President-elect Biden has held multiple calls with foreign leaders, Mexico — our No. 1 trading partner — is wasting an opportunity to strengthen its relationship with the U.S. and work closely with the Biden-Harris administration to address our common challenges, including the public health and humanitarian crises that have deeply impacted our border region.”

President Donald Trump continues to allege, without evidence, that the election was somehow stolen from him. Trump's lawsuits alleging election fraud have been tossed out in several key states, although he continues to mount challenges to results.

At the same time, in late November, the Trump administration set in motion the formal transition process, giving the Biden team access to federal funds and services — an important step toward an orderly transition of power.

That hasn't stopped some authoritarian leaders from sticking with their man in Washington. Trump has been friendlier to, and more forgiving of, strongman regimes than recent past U.S. presidents.

López Obrador joins Russia's Vladimir Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro — who has been called the "Trump of the Tropics" — in waiting to recognize Biden's win.

"He is in strange company," said Shannon O'Neil, a senior fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "And it is also quite odd, especially for a Mexican president, to join that company and remain aloof. Leaving Russia and Brazil aside, almost every other country responded within a couple of days."

China was also an outlier. The country's foreign ministry waited five days to congratulate Biden, extending recognition of the president-elect on Nov. 13 through a spokesman. President Xi Jinping personally congratulated Biden on Nov. 25.

Beginning during his 2016 campaign and running through the first two years of his presidency, Trump engaged in relentless Mexico-bashing that many expected would sour the U.S.-Mexico relationship.

Few expected López Obrador, elected in July 2018, to openly embrace Trump and his hard-line border policies after all the dirt thrown. But that's just what happened.

At heart, the two men are nationalists more concerned with domestic business than foreign affairs, experts say.

"I think we need to understand that AMLO has an uncommon worldview," said Duncan Wood, director of the nonpartisan Wilson Center's Mexico Institute in Washington, D.C. "He is much more focused on what happens internally than what happens in the United States. He wants the world to know he isn’t beholden to the United States."

Wood added that López Obrador is also "incredibly stubborn" and, "having made the decision not to congratulate Biden until it was official, that’s when it will happen. Right on cue, he will congratulate Biden" after the Electoral College vote.

Some experts have said that the Mexican president's silence was calculated to keep relations smooth with the current administration, given Trump's inclination to use Mexico and the border as a political piñata.

The Mexican president is relying on the country's historic noninterventionist doctrine as well, said Jesus Peña Muñoz, a social and political sciences professor at the university Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Juárez.

"It's not that he is worried that Trump won't leave the White House, but Trump is going to delay the usual process," Peña Muñoz said. "I think López Obrador is being extremely cautious."

Lauren Villagran can be reached at lvillagran@elpasotimes.com.

China's Xi attempts to claim diplomatic victory in battle for global ...

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.

Bali, Indonesia CNN —

Xi Jinping may have rejected US President Joe Biden’s description of the 21st century as a battle between democracies and autocracies, but as the G20 and APEC summits showed, the Chinese leader remains intent on pushing back at American influence overseas.

Still basking in the afterglow of a Communist Party Congress that last month saw him consolidate and extend his grip on power at home, the strongman leader emerged from China’s zero-Covid isolation with a flurry of in-person meetings in Bali and Bangkok last week.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping attends the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia on Wednesday. Willy Kurniawan/AFP/Getty Images/File

In contrast to his self-cultivated image as an ideological hardliner, Xi attempted to portray himself as a broad-minded statesman, telling Biden in their meeting last Monday that leaders “should think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider world.”

This sweeping diplomatic outreach appeared specifically targeted at US allies and regional leaders caught in an intensifying rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Since taking office, Biden has shored up relations with allies and partners to counter China’s growing influence.

“Asia Pacific is no one’s backyard and should not become an area for big power contest,” Xi said Friday at the opening of the APEC summit, in the absence of Biden, who had already flown back to the US.

The whirlwind of face-to-face diplomacy represents something of a victory for Xi, whose self-imposed international isolation had proved extremely costly as China’s relations plummeted with the West and many of its neighbors during the pandemic. Tensions have flared over the origins of the coronavirus, trade, territorial claims, Beijing’s human rights record and its close partnership with Russia despite the devastating war in Ukraine.

“Judging from the sheer volume of international heads of states wanting to have a one-on-one with Xi Jinping, I think it’s safe to say that (the trip) has been successful on Xi’s part,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australia National University’s Taiwan Studies Program.

With broad smiles and handshakes, the Chinese leader held exchanges with his counterparts from the US, Australia, France, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Papua New Guinea, among others – including leaders whose governments had openly criticized Beijing.

And in multiple speeches, Xi, who earlier this year had joined Russian President Vladimir Putin in proclaiming plans to create a “new world order,” attempted to now present himself as a leader for international unity. In a thinly veiled dig at the US, he decried “ideological division,” “block politics,” “cold war mentality,” and attempts to “politicize and weaponize economic and trade relations.”

Over the two summits, Xi held a total of 20 bilateral meetings in a schedule so packed it sometimes stretched late into the night. He also made a point of holding most of the meetings in his hotel.

The optics speak for themselves.

“All the leaders were lining up patiently to meet the ‘emperor’ of China,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University.

But despite the apparent outreach, Xi also showed he was ready to confront perceived slights.

In a rare, candid moment caught on camera, Xi chided Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, accusing him of leaking details of a brief conversation between them. As they parted ways, Xi could be heard off camera describing Trudeau as “very naive.”

“It reminded the whole world that there are limits to this smiling diplomacy – as soon as you cross upon China’s interest you can get into trouble,” Cabestan said.

Video Ad Feedback China's Xi confronts Canadian prime minister in hot mic moment 01:00 - Source: CNN

Xi’s goal

For Xi, the diplomatic flurry with Western leaders is a crucial first step toward normalizing relations – which had been severely strained by his assertive foreign policy and the “wolf-warrior” diplomacy of Chinese diplomats.

Despite its often aggressive stance, Beijing is increasingly worried about economic decoupling with the West. The poor state of the Chinese economy – thanks to unrelenting zero-Covid lockdowns and the recent US ban on the export of advanced semiconductor chips to China – have added to Beijing’s urgency to reverse the trend.

Notably, among the leaders Xi met in Bali was Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, home to semiconductor giant ASML – which is under increasing pressure from the US to stop selling its products to China.

During their meeting, Xi urged Rutte to avoid “decoupling” and the “politicization of economic and trade issues,” and invited him to visit Beijing next year.

“While Biden may be trying to build a so-called values based alignment against China, Xi is trying to find ways to weaken the cohesion of that alignment by pursuing top-level diplomacy one on one with those countries,” said Sung, the political scientist.

Xi’s numerous meetings with US allies are all the more remarkable given recent tensions with Beijing over trade, geopolitics and China’s human rights crackdown on Xinjiang and Hong Kong. In other multilateral settings, such as the Group of Seven summit, Western nations had issued strongly worded statements expressing concerns about China’s human rights record and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

“Amidst all that, Xi has proven that China still has enough lure and stature to attract all these countries to find ways to work with China. So in that sense, it’s successful diplomacy on Xi’s part,” Sung said.

Domestic message

The international posturing is also intended for the Chinese domestic audience.

For Xi, the key message he wanted to send home was already set at the start of the trip, when he met Biden face-to-face for the first time as national leaders.

“The fact that Xi was talking with Biden in a one-on-one setting, with confidence and smiles throughout, generates this image that the era of ‘G2’ has arrived,” Sung said.

Since coming to power, Xi has touted the “Chinese dream” of national rejuvenation – his vision of restoring China to its past glory and reclaiming its rightful place as a world leader. In recent years, he has also pushed the notion that the East is rising, and the West is in decline.

Video Ad Feedback Biden describes what he discussed with Xi Jinping in G20 meeting 03:43 - Source: CNN

To Xi’s domestic audience, the image of a superpower “G2” – China and the United States – served as a vivid visual representation of both narratives. “China now can talk with the US like a true equal,” Sung said.

But Chinese people who followed glowing state media coverage of Xi’s trip would have also noticed a striking image: their top leader attending indoor gatherings and mingling with world leaders without a face mask.

That was a far cry from Xi’s caution for Covid during his first trip abroad since the pandemic. When he visited Central Asia in September, Xi wore a mask to disembark from his plane and skipped a mask-free group dinner where leaders ate and talked around the table.

This time around, Xi appeared much more comfortable being maskless. He also attended the Group of 20 dinner, where he shook hands and chatted with leaders including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Back home in China, however, snap lockdowns and mass testing edicts continue to torment residents, despite the government’s recent announcement of limited easing of its zero-Covid policy.

In the southern metropolis of Guangzhou, residents revolted against a Covid lockdown, tearing down barriers and marching down streets. In the central city of Zhengzhou, the death of a 4-month-old girl in hotel quarantine stoked nationwide outcry – the second death of a child under Covid restrictions this month.

Having had a taste of what living with Covid could look like in Bali and Bangkok, Xi returned Saturday to a China under siege from rising infections and tightening restrictions in many cities.

Apart from the Dutch Prime Minister, Xi also invited US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s newly elected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to visit Beijing early next year.

Whether they will visit a China free of Covid restrictions – and potential travel quarantines – remains to be seen.

The White House wants to tackle migration again. But the key ...

CNN —

The Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles is entering its liveliest stage with a series of high-profile bilateral meetings, but the absence of key players in the United States’ effort to address migration to the southern border might be a headache for the White House.

Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras play an oversize role in the issue of migration. Collectively known as the Northern Triangle, they are countries of origin for tens of thousands of migrants, and a key transit point for even more travelers who approach the southern border with the hope of re-locating to the United States.

The Biden administration has focused heavily on these three countries. Vice President Kamala Harris visited Guatemala a year ago and then this year she traveled to Honduras to congratulate newly elected President Xiomara Castro.

Despite the overtures, President Castro and her two counterparts, President Alejandro Giammattei of Guatemala and Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, skipped the summit in Los Angeles this week.

Their absence were evident on Tuesday, when Harris unveiled a pledge worth $3.2 billion of private investments to address “the root causes of migration” in the Northern Triangle. In her speech, the Vice President spoke directly to the private sector and civil society in the Northern Triangle, touting the opportunities in job creation and a stronger partnership with US-based companies.

Honduran President Xiomara Castro joined El Salvador and Guatemala's leaders in skipping the summit. Orlando Sierra/AFP/Getty Images

“It is a shame that none of the governments are there to speak with her, especially Honduras, but for the most part the current governments of the Northern Triangle are more obstacles than partners,” said Adam Isaacson, director of defense oversight at the Washington Office for Latin America (WOLA), and an expert on migration to the southern border.

Democratic backsliding

Critics of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele have accused him of authoritarian tendencies. Jose Cabezas/Reuters

Bukele and Giammattei, in particular, have opened the door to anti-democratic behavior in their respective countries in recent years – the former famously led armed soldiers into congress to pass a budget law in 2020 – and relations with the US have declined since Biden took power as the White House has repeatedly criticized this sort of conduct.

“Bukele and Giammattei are actively dismantling democracy and fostering corruption, they are creating the conditions that lead to more migration […] which explains why the Biden administration made the choice to emphasize the private sector,” Isaacson told CNN.

None of these countries were invited to the State Department’s ‘Summit for Democracy’ held last December, and several international organizations have raised concerns about corruption, limits on checks and balances in government and democratic backsliding.

Last week, Amnesty International accused Bukele of having “engulfed El Salvador in a human rights crisis” in his first three years in office. Guatemala’s legislative and executive powers are “impeding accountability and threatening judicial independence,” according to Human Rights Watch.

Castro’s predecessor, Juan Orlando Hernandez, was extradited to the US in April on drug trafficking charges. While her administration has been more in step with the White House, it may have nevertheless decided to skip the Los Angeles summit in order to avoid upsetting Honduras’ neighbours, as well as in a show of solidarity with the excluded countries Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

And people from those excluded countries are turning up in record numbers at the US southern border.

Nearly 80,000 Cubans reached the US border from Mexico from October through March, according to US Customs and Border Protection data, with record numbers of Venezuelans and Nicaraguans arriving at the US border in 2021 and early 2022.

Opposing objectives

Where Washington and the Northern Triangle governments’ perspectives differ the most is on the migration issue.

In the US, stemming migration has bipartisan support: Both Republicans and Democrats are working actively to reduce the number of migrants entering the country despite the fact the US economy needing workers.

But migration is not seen as a problem but as an opportunity in the Northern Triangle. The annual movement of tens of thousands of people eases the social pressures facing these governments, and remittances from nationals abroad have become a considerable chunk of these countries’ economies.

According to the World Bank, El Salvador received almost $6 billion in remittances in 2020, Guatemala received more than $11 billion and Honduras about $5.5 billion, which constitutes 24%, 15% and 23% of their GDPs respectively.

That means the flow of remittances from migrants abroad is seven times higher than the investments the White House touted this week.

“These countries have understood the centrality of the migration’s issue in US politics, which give them great leverage, as they don’t see too many threats in distancing themselves from Washington,” said Tiziano Breda, a Central American expert at the International Crisis Group in Guatemala.

A growing number of Salvadorans leaving the country are calling foul on Bukele’s grand vision to ‘Make El Salvador Great Again,’ but it’s a fact that these economies receive much more investments from fellow nationals working in the United States than from any big US corporation opening a factory south of the border or foreign aid from Washington.

Migrants taking part in a caravan heading to the US, walk from Huixtla to Escuintla, Chiapas state, Mexico, on June 9, 2022. Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images

China’s growing influence in the region has helped the three countries move away from Washington. Late last year, Bukele announced plans to build a new national stadium in El Salvador paid by the Chinese government. Guatemala meanwhile is mulling switching its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan to Beijing in exchange for China’s Belt and Road investment program.

As leaders hob-nobbed in Los Angeles this week, at least 3,000 migrants – mostly from Venezuela, which has also been excluded from the summit – crossed the Guatemala-Mexico border heading north toward the US.

The US and other countries in attendance are expected to issue a joint declaration on Friday that will outline a cooperative approach to migration, which will include strengthened protection for migrants, support for countries hosting large refugee populations and tackle human smuggling networks.

But with key leaders not in attendance, including Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, it remains to be seen if these commitments will have any potency.

China will support Russia on security, Xi tells Putin in birthday call ...

Hong Kong CNN —

Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated his support for Moscow on “sovereignty and security” matters in a call with counterpart Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, upholding his backing for the countries’ partnership despite the global backlash against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking on his 69th birthday, Xi also pledged to deepen strategic coordination between the two countries, according to China’s Foreign Ministry.

A separate readout from the Kremlin said the two leaders stressed their countries’ relations were “at an all-time high” and reaffirmed their commitment to “consistently deepen the comprehensive partnership.”

The call is thought to be the second time the two have spoken since Russia invaded Ukraine. They last spoke just days after Moscow launched what it insists on calling a “special military operation.”

China, too, has refrained from referring to Russia’s actions as an invasion and has walked a fine line on the issue. It has portrayed itself as calling for peace and upholding the global order, while refusing to denounce Russia’s actions. It has also used its state media apparatus to mimic Kremlin lines blaming the United States and NATO for the crisis.

During Wednesday’s call, Xi stressed China had always “independently assessed the situation” in Ukraine and called for “all parties” to push for a “proper settlement of the Ukraine crisis” – echoing language he used in a March call with US President Joe Biden.

China is “willing to continue to play its role” in promoting a “proper solution” to Ukraine, he said.

The Kremlin’s summary of the call took this position a step further, saying: “the President of China noted the legitimacy of Russia’s actions to protect fundamental national interests in the face of challenges to its security created by external forces.”

China’s lack of censure for Russia’s war in Ukraine has further strained Beijing’s tense relationship with the US and its allies.

US officials have repeatedly called on countries to condemn Russia’s actions and warned their Chinese counterparts against aiding Moscow. During the March call between Xi and Biden, the US President spelled out consequences if China gave material support, following US intelligence that Moscow asked Beijing for military assistance – a claim both deny.

Trade ties

Wednesday’s call was also a chance for Putin and Xi to check in on a growing trade relationship.

Earlier this year, weeks before the Russian invasion, the two leaders in a face-to-face meeting said their countries had a “no limits” partnership and pledged to boost trade.

“Since the beginning of this year, bilateral relations have maintained a sound development momentum in the face of global turbulence and transformations,” Xi said in the Wednesday call.

“The Chinese side stands ready to work with the Russian side to push for steady and long-term development of practical bilateral cooperation,” Xi said, pointing to the “steady progress” of their trade ties and the opening last week of the first cross-border highway bridge over the Amur River.

The two agreed to expand cooperation in energy, finance, manufacturing and other areas, “taking into account the global economic situation that has become more complicated due to the illegitimate sanctions policy pursued by the West,” the Kremlin readout said.

The two countries also pledged to work together to strengthen communication and coordination in international bodies such as the United Nations – where the two often vote as a bloc.

“China is also willing to work with Russia to promote solidarity and cooperation among emerging market countries … and push for the development of the international order and global governance towards a more just and reasonable direction,” Xi said, in a comment that hit on the countries’ shared aim of pushing back against what they view as the global hegemony of the United States.

Video Ad Feedback China refusing to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine 02:54 - Source: CNN

Birthday greetings

The call was not the first time that Xi and Putin – two strongmen drawn together by mutual distrust of the West – have had engagements on each others’ birthdays.

In 2013, Xi presented Putin with a birthday cake and the two drank vodka together to mark the Russian leader’s 61st birthday during a conference in Indonesia. Xi later celebrated his 66th birthday during a 2019 summit in Tajikistan with Putin, who surprised him with ice cream, cake and champagne.

Their personal relationship, in which Xi has described Putin as his “best and bosom friend” is also thought to bolster the dynamics of their strengthening rapport on the national level.

In its summary of the two leaders’ latest call, the Kremlin noted the conversation was held in a “traditionally warm and friendly atmosphere.”

Biden embraces a signature Trump achievement on first trip to the ...

Jerusalem CNN —

As President Joe Biden arrived here on Wednesday, he is doing something he has never done on a foreign trip: Embracing one of his predecessor’s legacy achievements.

While much of his foreign travel in his first 18 months in office has focused on reversing the foreign policy of former President Donald Trump and shoring up battered alliances, Biden on his first trip to the Middle East will embrace the Trump-era Abraham Accords that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries and pursue an expansion of growing Arab-Israeli security and economic ties.

Biden landed in Tel Aviv just after 8 a.m. ET Wednesday and pledged in remarks at an arrival ceremony to deepen Israel’s relationship with the US and with other countries in the region.

“We’ll continue to advance Israel’s integration into the region, expand emerging forums and engagement,” Biden said. “Greater peace, greater stability, greater connection. It’s critical. It’s critical, if I might add, for all the people of the region.”

After arriving, Biden received briefing on the Iron Dome defense system and the next-generation, laser-enabled Iron Beam system on Wednesday. Later in the day, he visited Yad Vashem, the World Holocaust Remembrance Center in Jerusalem.

US President Joe Biden poses alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa bin Salman al Khalifa, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Jordanian King Abdullah II for a family photo in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Saturday, July 16. Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images Biden speaks during the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting on Saturday. Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images President Joe Biden meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Saturday. Evan Vucci/AP Biden and the Saudi Crown Prince exchange a fist bump Friday, July 15, as Biden arrives at the Al Salam Royal Palace in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout/Reuters Biden is joined by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken as the Saudi Crown Prince receives them at the palace on Friday. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout/Reuters Biden and his delegation, left, sit down with the Crown Prince and his team for talks at the palace. Evan Vucci/AP Biden meets with Saudi King Salman at the palace on Friday. But given the King's deteriorating health, the working session was conducted by the Crown Prince. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout/Reuters Biden and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas walk together Friday at the Presidential Compound in the West Bank. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Biden and Abbas shake hands on Friday. The meeting with Abbas came as Biden continues to advocate for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Following his meeting with Abbas, Biden acknowledged such an agreement "seems so far away" and that "the ground is not ripe at this moment to restart negotiations." However, he also suggested that better relations between Israel and Arab nations could lead to momentum to a deal between Israelis and Palestinians. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Abbas welcomes Biden on Friday. Mohamad Torokman/Reuters An image of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, who was fatally shot while covering an Israeli military operation in the West Bank, is seen on a chair at a news conference with Biden and Abbas. Biden said her death was "an enormous loss to the essential work of sharing with the world the story of the Palestinian people." Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Israeli President Isaac Herzog awards Biden with the Israeli Presidential Medal of Honor on Thursday. Biden, who was recognized for his longtime support of Israel, said it was "among the greatest honors of my career." Evan Vucci/AP Biden points to his USA hat as he meets with US athletes competing in the Maccabiah Games, an international Jewish and Israeli multi-sport event, on Thursday. Biden also watched a portion of the opening ceremonies. Evan Vucci/AP Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid sign a new joint declaration Thursday aimed at expanding the security relationship between their nations and countering what they described as efforts by Iran to destabilize the region. Biden on Thursday said the United States will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and he said he believed diplomacy remained the best avenue to keep the nation from obtaining one. Atef Safadi/AP Biden lays a wreath Wednesday at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Remembrance Center in Jerusalem. Menahem Kahana/Pool/AFP/Getty Images Biden meets with Holocaust survivors during his visit to Yad Vashem on Wednesday. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Biden wrote this note during his visit to Yad Vashem. "It is a great honor to be back — back to my emotional home," Biden wrote. "We must never, ever, forget, because hate is never defeated — it only hides. We must teach every succeeding generation that it can happen again unless we remember. That is what I teach my children and grandchildren. Never forget." Menahem Kahana/Pool/AFP/Getty Images After Air Force One arrived in Israel, Biden was greeted by Lapid and Herzog. The White House said the fist bumps are part of an effort to reduce physical contact amid the rapid spread of a new coronavirus variant. But Biden was later seen shaking hands as well. Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images "We're going to deepen our connections in science and innovation and work to address global challenges through the new strategic high-level dialogue on technology," Biden said in his remarks at the Ben Gurion Airport. "We'll continue to advance Israel's integration into the region, expand emerging forums and engagement." The President added, "Greater peace, greater stability, greater connection. It's critical. It's critical, if I might add, for all the people of the region." Amir Cohen/Reuters Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, left, joins Biden and Lapid for a briefing on Israel's Iron Dome defense system and the next-generation, laser-enabled Iron Beam system. Gil Cohen-Magen/Pool/AP The American and Israeli flags are projected onto the walls of Jerusalem's Old City in honor of Biden's visit. Mahmoud Illean/AP In pictures: Biden's trip to the Middle East Prev Next

In the lead-up to the trip, US officials have been working to deepen Israeli-Arab security coordination and broker agreements that will inch Israel and Saudi Arabia – which do not have diplomatic relations – closer to normalization.

People familiar with the matter said Saudi Arabia is expected to announce this week that it will allow all commercial flights to and from Israel to use its airspace and allow Israel’s Muslim minority to take charter flights directly to Saudi Arabia to participate in the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca. Biden will also fly directly to Saudi Arabia from Israel, a moment that he called a “small symbol of the budding relations” between the two countries.

Senior Biden administration officials said full Saudi-Israel normalization remains out of reach, though covert coordination between the two countries has expanded.

“It’s changed the security situation in the Middle East,” a senior US official said of the Abraham Accords signed in late 2020. “Our job is to go deeper with the countries that have signed up and to go wider if we can.”

The Biden administration’s focus on expanding normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries has frustrated Palestinian officials who would prefer the US focus on reviving the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. But US officials say their focus on Arab-Israeli normalization is a recognition of realities in the region: The momentum for growing Arab-Israeli ties coupled with dead-end political conditions in Israel and the Palestinian territories.

Two senior administration officials said the administration would like to see movement toward Israeli-Palestinian peace but said the White House has decided not to pursue the kind of high-level shuttle diplomacy that previous administrations have chased because it would likely fail.

“We’re very careful about setting objectives, particularly in the Middle East. Where administrations have gotten themselves in deep trouble is by promising the Moon and not being able to deliver and wasting time and resources and investment,” a senior administration official said. “Had we launched a peace process, there would have been nobody at the table.”

“If the parties are ready to talk, we are always going to be right there to help, but we are not going to come out with some top-down mandated plan and create expectations that can’t be met,” the official said.

Attempting to make incremental progress on Israeli-Palestinian relations

US officials have instead focused on making incremental progress to improve living conditions for Palestinians and restoring relations with the Palestinian Authority.

“The Palestinian relationship that we walked into had been totally severed. We restored relations with the Palestinians, we turned back on funding for the Palestinians – almost $500 million – and we have looked for opportunities to improve the lives of Palestinians wherever we could,” the senior administration official said.

Biden is expected to visit a Palestinian hospital in East Jerusalem this week and announce $100 million in new funding for those facilities, US officials said. The Biden administration has also been working with Israel on an aid package to bolster the Palestinian Authority, which governs Palestinian-controlled parts of the West Bank.

Palestinian officials are still calling on Biden to do more to reverse Trump administration actions, including making good on his pledge to reopen a US consulate in Jerusalem to deal with Palestinians. That promise has gone unfulfilled amid disapproval from Israel.

Palestinian officials are also urging the US to do more to hold Israel accountable for the killing of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in May, which the US State Department said last week “likely” resulted from gunfire from Israel Defense Forces positions during an IDF-led raid in the West Bank.

The State Department caveated their conclusion, however, by saying that a forensic analysis “could not reach a definitive conclusion regarding the origin of the bullet that killed” Abu Akleh. The statement angered Abu Akleh’s family, who wrote a letter to Biden saying his administration failed to conduct a thorough probe into her killing.

The Israeli government was angry with the statement, too, according to a senior Israeli official, because it appeared to contradict itself. On the one hand it said the analysis was inconclusive, and on the other concluding the bullet likely came from the IDF. “We do have a problem with the way it was presented,” the official said.

Even amid that dispute, US officials have been working to ensure that the trip is not marred by an increase in tensions between Israel and Palestinians, encouraging dialogue between the two sides that led to the first call between an Israeli Prime Minister and Palestinian Authority President in five years last week, in which Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas congratulated new Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on his ascension and the two leaders expressed their wishes for peace.

“We’re encouraging them (Israelis and Palestinians) to have conversations and encouraging them to do things that keep things calm,” a senior US official said.

State Department officials also requested last month that Israel tamp down on any military operations and settlement activity in the West Bank at least while Biden is in town, a second senior US official said.

The White House is particularly keen on avoiding a repeat of Biden’s visit to Israel as vice president in 2010, when Israel’s Interior Ministry approved a settlement expansion in east Jerusalem while Biden was in the country trying to build support for new talks with the Palestinians. Biden condemned the announcement and White House officials were so furious at the time that they urged Biden to fly home, officials told CNN.

Asked whether Israel will honor US requests not to engage in settlement announcements around Biden’s trip, the senior Israeli official would say only that Israel is doing “everything possible” to make the visit a success.

‘A policy earthquake’

The Biden administration’s focus on the Abraham Accords more broadly, though, also reflects a recognition that a fundamental shift in regional dynamics has begun.

“In some ways, it’s a policy earthquake,” said David Makovsky, a distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy who worked on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process during the Obama administration. “I think there’s a fundamental paradigm shift from which there’s no return.”

Ahead of Biden’s trip, Israeli officials have made no secret of their eagerness to advance toward normalization with Saudi Arabi and their hope that Biden can help them make progress on that front.

“Saudi Arabia, the way we see it, is that it is a very important country in the Middle East and beyond. In expanding Israeli normalization with the Arab world, we would also like to see Saudi Arabia as part of that expansion,” a senior Israeli official told CNN.

To that end, Israel has pushed for Biden to travel to Saudi Arabia and mend ties with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman – whom the US accused in a declassified CIA report of having approved the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi – believing that expanding the Abraham Accords would be more difficult without strengthened US-Saudi relations, despite Biden’s tough domestic political situation around Saudi relations. The Crown Prince has denied involvement in the murder.

When Biden travels to Jeddah on Friday, he will attend a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus three – Egypt, Iraq and Jordan. He will also hold a bilateral meeting with Saudi King Salman and his advisers, including MBS. Some US officials told CNN they are hoping that MBS and Biden have some one-on-one time as part of the meeting, though the choreography will likely be driven by the Saudi hosts.

Biden is likely to bring up Khashoggi’s murder, US officials told CNN, and the administration is hoping MBS will acknowledge some responsibility for the crime. While oil production is not expected to be the main topic of the meeting, US officials do expect the topic to arise – there is hope that the Kingdom will commit to increasing production in the weeks following the meeting.

The Yemen conflict will be a central piece of the conversation as well. US officials are hoping that the Saudis agree to extend the truce between the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, for six more months.

While US officials are not expecting the Saudis to throw any major curve balls during the events, they acknowledge that it is possible especially because the Saudis are hosting. When National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met last year with MBS at a beach-front property along the coast of the Red Sea, MBS was dressed in shorts, while Sullivan and other US officials wore suits. It created a bizarre juxtaposition, adding another layer of strain to an already tense meeting, officials said.

The Biden administration is not overly anxious about the meetings, though, because of the extensive diplomatic groundwork that has already been laid over the last eight months by Biden’s national security advisers. And the US has already been central to deepening Israeli-Arab security coordination following the key decision last year to move military coordination with Israel under US Central Command, putting Israel under the same umbrella as Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. Earlier this year, Israel and Saudi Arabia both participated in joint naval exercises for the first time, with the US and Oman.

More could be in the offing. Biden will arrive in the region amid discussions of establishing a regional air defense framework that would include Israel and Arab countries to warn of Iranian attacks.

“There is an effort (housed) under CENTCOM to develop regional security cooperation among all the actors and one element is the integrated air defense initiative. It is a goal, but we are not there yet and there is a long way to go,” a senior Israeli official said.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley also spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi on Sunday night ahead of Biden’s visit. The call comes amid rising tensions with Iran and as CENTCOM is reviewing options for how to deter and, if necessary, use force against Iran. For the last several years, options for potential use of force against Iran have centered around a deterrence strategy in which the US would most likely only strike Iran if it, or militias it backs, were responsible for attacks on US interests or killing of American troops and citizens. A more complex scenario would be if there is solid intelligence Iran has a nuclear weapon and Israel was set on attacking inside Iran.

The CENTCOM update is not expected to fundamentally change US military policy, even though at least four defense officials say there is a broad view that Israel is heavily signaling the Biden administration it wants US military support for an Israeli strike inside Iran if that were to happen.

Looking past Trump

While Biden immediately embraced the Abraham Accords – which established diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – during the 2020 campaign, there were early signs in his administration of skittishness to fully embracing the accord.

During the first months of Biden’s presidency, State Department officials, including spokesman Ned Price, referred to the Accords as “normalization agreements” and resisted using “Abraham Accords.”

One senior US official said there were some in the administration who “didn’t want to give Trump credit” by using the term, but said the administration has “surpassed that.” By the one-year anniversary of the signing, Price recorded a video hailing the accords by their name.

A senior administration official said “from the White House, there was never any hesitancy” in embracing the accords.

The Biden administration has also sought to deepen Israel’s emerging relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco – which inked its own normalization agreement in December 2020 – by dispatching Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the Negev Summit, which convened the countries’ foreign ministers in Israel in March.

While in Israel, Biden is also set to participate in a virtual summit with the leaders of Israel, India and the United Arab Emirates to discuss global food security to demonstrate the deepening partnership.

Overlap between Biden and Trump’s Middle East policies begin and end with efforts to normalize ties between Israel and the Arab world. And like his previous foreign trips, Biden’s trip to Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia will underscore the significant US policy shift underway.

“Our policy could not be any more different,” a senior administration official said. “Just because we support the Abraham Accords does not mean we have the same Middle East policy.”

Biden laid out the many ways in which he has changed the course of US policy in the Middle East in a Washington Post op-ed Saturday ahead of his trip, pointing to reversing the Trump administration’s “blank-check policy” toward Saudi Arabia, reentering Iran nuclear negotiations alongside European allies and taking other military and diplomatic steps that he says have made the region more stable.

“The Middle East I’ll be visiting is more stable and secure than the one my administration inherited 18 months ago,” Biden wrote. “In my first weeks as president, our intelligence and military experts warned that the region was dangerously pressurized. It needed urgent and intensive diplomacy.”

Jeremy Diamond Natasha Bertrand
Jeremy Diamond
Natasha Bertrand

Ukraine-Russia crisis: As tensions rise on the border, here's what ...

Kyiv, Ukraine CNN —

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are at their highest in years, with a Russian troop build-up near the two nations’ borders spurring fears that Moscow could launch an invasion.

Ukraine has warned that Russia is trying to destabilize the country ahead of any planned military invasion. Western powers have repeatedly warned Russia against further aggressive moves against Ukraine.

The Kremlin denies it is planning to attack and argues that NATO support for Ukraine – including increased weapons supplies and military training – constitutes a growing threat on Russia’s western flank.

The picture is complicated – but here’s a breakdown of what we know.

What’s the situation on the border?

The United States and NATO have described the movements and concentrations of troops in and around Ukraine as “unusual.”

As many as 100,000 Russian troops have remained amassed at the Ukrainian border, despite warnings from US President Joe Biden and European leaders of serious consequences should Putin move ahead with an invasion. And US intelligence findings in December estimated that Russia could begin a military offensive in Ukraine “as soon as early 2022.”

Speaking alongside his Ukrainian counterpart in Kyiv on January 19, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia had “ratcheted up its threats and amassed nearly 100,000 forces on Ukraine’s border, which it could double on relatively short order.”

In late 2021, satellite photos revealed Russian hardware – including self-propelled guns, battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles – on the move at a training ground roughly 186 miles (300 km) from the border.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s latest intelligence assessment says Russia has now deployed more than 127,000 troops near Ukraine, including some 21,000 air and sea personnel, transferred more Iskander operational-tactical missiles to the border, and increased its intelligence activity against the country.

The assessment came after three rounds of diplomatic talks between Russia and the West aimed at de-escalating the crisis failed to produce a resolution.

US officials have said a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen at any point in the next month or two.

Many of Russia’s military bases are to the west of the vast country – the direction from which history suggests any threats are most likely to come. Russia’s Defense Ministry has said it is conducting “regular” winter military drills in its southern region, parts of which border Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions bordering Russia, an area known as Donbas, have been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014. Russian forces are also present in the area, referred to by Ukraine as “temporarily occupied territories,” although Russia denies it.

The front lines of the conflict have barely moved in five years, but there are frequent small-scale clashes and sniper attacks. Russia was angered when Ukrainian forces deployed a Turkish-made combat drone for the first time in October to strike a position held by the pro-Russian separatists.

Russia also has forces numbering in the tens of thousands at its massive naval base in Crimea, the Ukrainian territory it annexed in 2014. The Crimean peninsula, which lies to the south of the rest of Ukraine, is now connected by a road bridge to mainland Russia.

Russian tanks take part in a military drills at Molkino training ground in the Krasnodar region, Russia, on December 14, 2021. AP

What’s the history of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia, both former Soviet states, escalated in late 2013 over a landmark political and trade deal with the European Union. After the pro-Russian then-President, Viktor Yanukovych, suspended the talks – reportedly under pressure from Moscow – weeks of protests in Kyiv erupted into violence.

Then, in March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, an autonomous peninsula in southern Ukraine with strong Russian loyalties, on the pretext that it was defending its interests and those of Russian-speaking citizens. First, thousands of Russian-speaking troops, dubbed “little green men” and later acknowledged by Moscow to be Russian soldiers, poured into the Crimean peninsula. Within days, Russia completed its annexation in a referendum that was slammed by Ukraine and most of the world as illegitimate.

Russian soldiers patrol the area surrounding the Ukrainian military unit in Perevalnoye, outside Simferopol, Crimea, on March 20, 2014. Filippo MonteforteAFP/Getty Images

Shortly afterwards, pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared their independence from Kyiv, prompting months of heavy fighting. Despite Kyiv and Moscow signing a peace deal in Minsk in 2015, brokered by France and Germany, there have been repeated ceasefire violations.

According to UN figures, there have been more than 3,000 conflict-related civilian deaths in eastern Ukraine since March 2014.

The European Union and US have imposed a series of measures in response to Russia’s actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, including economic sanctions targeting individuals, entities and specific sectors of the Russian economy.

The Kremlin accuses Ukraine of stirring up tensions in the country’s east and of violating the Minsk ceasefire agreement.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to support the withdrawal of troops on February 19, 2015 in Artemivsk, Ukraine. Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images

What’s Russia’s view?

The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that Russia plans on invading Ukraine, insisting Russia does not pose a threat to anyone and that the country moving troops across its own territory should not be cause for alarm.

Moscow sees the growing support for Ukraine from NATO – in terms of weaponry, training and personnel – as a threat to its own security. It has also accused Ukraine of boosting its own troop numbers in preparation for an attempt to retake the Donbas region, an allegation Ukraine has denied.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for specific legal agreements that would rule out any further NATO expansion eastwards towards Russia’s borders, saying the West has not lived up to its previous verbal assurances.

Putin has also said that NATO deploying sophisticated weapons in Ukraine, such as missile systems, would be crossing a “red line” for Russia, amid concern in Moscow that Ukraine is being increasingly armed by NATO powers.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in November that weapons and military advisers were already being supplied to Ukraine by the US and other NATO member states. “And all this, of course, leads to a further aggravation of the situation on the border line,” he said.

If the US and its NATO allies do not change course in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned that Moscow has the “right to choose ways to ensure its legitimate security interests.”

What is Ukraine’s view?

Ukraine’s government insists that Moscow cannot prevent Kyiv from building closer ties with NATO if it chooses.

“Russia cannot stop Ukraine from getting closer with NATO and has no right to have any say in relevant discussions,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement to CNN, in response to Russian calls for NATO to halt its eastward expansion.

“Any Russian proposals to discuss with NATO or the US any so-called guarantees that the Alliance would not expand to the East are illegitimate,” it added.

Ukraine insists Russia is seeking to destabilize the country with the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, recently saying a coup plot, involving Ukrainians and Russians, had been uncovered.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that a planned coup could be part of Russia’s plan ahead of a military invasion. “External military pressure goes hand in hand with domestic destabilization of the country,” he said.

Tensions between the two countries have been exacerbated by a deepening Ukrainian energy crisis that Kyiv believes Moscow has purposefully provoked.

At the same time, Zelensky’s government faces challenges on many fronts. The government’s popularity has stagnated amid multiple domestic political challenges, including a recent third wave of Covid-19 infections and a struggling economy.

Many people are also unhappy that the government hasn’t yet delivered on benefits it promised and ended the conflict in the country’s east. Anti-government protests have taken place in Kyiv.

In a January 19 video address, Zelensky urged the Ukrainian people to “calm down” amid mounting unease over a possible Russian invasion. “We are aware of everything, we are ready for everything,” he said, before adding that he “sincerely believes” this year “will pass without a war” with Russia.

Kuleba also sought to reassure Ukrainians who fear the US, its NATO allies and Russia could leave Kyiv out of discussions. “No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine is a principle that we adhere to,” he said.

Pro-Russian fighters arrive on February 20, 2015 in Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine. Pierre Crom/Getty Images

What does NATO say?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said “there will be a high price to pay for Russia” if it once again invades Ukraine, a NATO partner.

“We have a wide range of options: economic sanctions, financial sanctions, political restrictions,” said Stoltenberg, in a December 1 interview with CNN.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, NATO increased its defenses “with combat-ready battlegroups in the eastern part of the alliance, in the Baltic countries, in Latvia … but also in the Black Sea region,” Stoltenberg said.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, and therefore doesn’t have the same security guarantees as NATO members.

But Stoltenberg left the possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member on the table, saying that Russia does not have the right to tell Ukraine that it cannot pursue NATO membership.

High-stakes talks between Russia and NATO in Brussels in mid-January were “not an easy discussion,” according to Stoltenberg, who added that “differences will not be easy to bridge.” However, NATO allies and Russia “expressed the need to resume dialogue,” he said.

What does the United States say?

President Joe Biden told Zelensky earlier this month in a phone call that the US and its allies “will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.”

But Biden appeared to undermine that message when he subsequently suggested during a White House news conference that a “minor incursion” by Russia would elicit a lesser response than a full-scale invasion of the country.

While Biden vowed harsh economic consequences on Russia should Putin send his troops over the border, including restricting its financial transitions in US dollars, he suggested Western nations were not in sync on what to do should a lesser violation occur. “There are differences in NATO as to what countries are willing to do, depending on what happens,” he said.

His remarks prompted a swift White House clarification. “President Biden has been clear with the Russian President: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies,” press secretary Jen Psaki wrote in a statement.

One Ukrainian official told CNN he was “shocked that the US President Biden would distinguish between incursion and invasion” and suggest that a minor incursion would not trigger sanctions. “This gives the green light to Putin to enter Ukraine at his pleasure,” the official added.

The diplomatic kerfuffle came as Blinken prepared for further talks with European allies on the Ukraine-Russia crisis and to meet with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Blinken has previously warned Russia that “any renewed aggression can trigger serious consequences.”

Two defense officials told CNN on January 3 that the Defense Department has developed military options for Biden if he decides to increase capabilities in eastern Europe to further deter potential Russian aggression against Ukraine. Both officials emphasized that this part of routine planning the military does and that for now, the focus remains on diplomacy and potential economic sanctions.

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov held meetings in Geneva on January 10, as the US sought to de-escalate the threat of a Russian advance.

The US delivered roughly $450 million in security assistance to Ukraine in 2021, the Pentagon said, including a package of small arms and ammunition in December. The Biden administration is now weighing new options, including providing more arms to Ukraine to resist a Russian occupation, a senior US official told CNN.

The Obama administration was taken by surprise when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and backed an insurgency in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. US officials say they are determined not to be caught out by another Russian military operation.

“Our concern is that Russia may make a serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014, when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and did so claiming falsely that it was provoked,” Blinken said late last year.

What other factors are at play?

Unrest in the former Soviet state of Kazakhstan was unwelcome news for Putin at the beginning of 2022.

Deadly protests in early January saw the Kazakh government resign, a state of emergency be declared and troops from a Russia-led military alliance deployed to help contain the unrest.

But experts have warned that Russia’s intervention is unlikely to be the end of the story. Blinken said that “once Russians are in your house, sometimes it is very difficult to get them to leave.”

Another issue revolves around energy supply. Ukraine views the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline – connecting Russian gas supplies directly to Germany – as a threat to its own security.

Nord Stream 2 is one of two pipelines that Russia has laid underwater in the Baltic Sea in addition to its traditional land-based pipeline network that runs through eastern Europe, including Ukraine.

Kyiv views the pipelines across Ukraine as an element of protection against an invasion by Russia, since any military action could potentially disrupt the vital flow of gas to Europe.

Analysts and US lawmakers have raised concerns that Nord Stream 2 will increase European dependence on Russian gas and could allow Moscow to selectively target countries such as Ukraine with energy cut-offs, without broader disruption to European supplies. Bypassing eastern European countries also means those nations would be deprived of lucrative transit fees Russia would otherwise pay.

In May 2021, the Biden administration waived sanctions on the company behind Nord Stream 2, effectively giving it the green light. US officials say the move was in the interest of US national security as it sought to rebuild frayed relations with Germany.

In November, the US imposed new sanctions on a Russian-linked entity and a vessel linked to Nord Stream 2. Some US senators have called for further sanctions to be imposed to prevent Russia using the pipeline as a weapon; Ukraine too has called for tougher measures.

Matthew Chance Laura Smith-Spark
Matthew Chance
Laura Smith-Spark

Analysis: Saudi Crown Prince outlasts US' moral outrage, with a little ...

CNN —

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has outlasted the United States, nearly four years after the murder and dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

An announcement Tuesday that President Joe Biden will visit Saudi Arabia next month is not a surprise – the White House has been preparing the ground for days. And the President’s decision to visit, as well as lawmakers’ reactions to the trip, fit a prevailing pattern of the US-Saudi relationship: Washington recoils over distaste for Saudi behavior that conflicts with its values, then gets pulled back into its marriage of convenience owing to the kingdom’s oil wealth and critical strategic position.

Although Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday defended Biden’s upcoming meetings with the Saudis, Senate Majority Whip Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin – Schumer’s No. 2 – and other leading Democrats are showing their concern.

Durbin told CNN he has “concerns” with Biden’s trip and called on the President to change his plans, but that he understands why Biden decided to take part in the visit.

“I have concerns about it. I think the Saudis have demonstrated that they don’t share our values. The episode with Khashoggi is an international incident of historic proportions. I can’t get around it,” Durbin said, later adding, “It’s a tough call. Sustaining the energy services for our allies and NATO, doing something to increase the oil supply in the world, perhaps bring down gasoline prices. All these things are timely and important. But I’m sorry he has to do it with Saudis.”

Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, a member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told CNN that the trip is a “really bad idea.”

“His blood stain has not been cleansed,” Kaine said. “And I get it that circumstances change. But what’s the fundamental issue in the world right now? It’s the authoritarians. … I don’t think you go say, ‘Well, circumstances change. We sit down with a murderer who killed a journalist who lives in Virginia.’ I think it’s a big mistake. I’d meet with other — I’d meet with (the) foreign minister. I’d meet with the Saudi ambassador. I’d meet with the King, but I wouldn’t meet with MBS.”

Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy, another member of Senate Foreign Relations, said he has some “real worries,” adding, “I think I need to hear more from the administration to understand what kind of commitments they’ve gotten from the kingdom to change their ways.”

Durbin’s Republican counterpart, Senate Republican Whip John Thune of South Dakota, also had problems with the trip, saying, “I just wish he would focus on American energy and he wouldn’t have to deal with the Crown Prince.”

“He’s expressed concerns about going there in the past for all the obvious reasons. And it just seems … having to go hat in hand to the Saudis to increase energy production because we won’t do it here – I think it’s unfortunate an American president is put in that position,” Thune added.

There’s little doubt that Biden is making his trip in order to persuade the Saudis to pump more crude oil to help alleviate the political impact of record-high US gasoline prices. His visit also comes as a new crisis looms with arch Saudi foe Iran, which may soon cross the threshold to building a nuclear bomb.

To quell the controversy, the White House is styling the visit of Biden to a nation he called “a pariah” over Khashoggi’s brutal killing, for which US intelligence determined the Crown Prince was responsible, as part of a regional peace initiative. The President will take part in a summit with the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Egypt, Jordan and Iraq in Jeddah after visiting Israel to show support for the Jewish state’s warming relations with anti-Iran Arab neighbors.

There will be bilateral meetings with King Salman and his team, which the White House expects to include the Crown Prince. And White House officials have broadly said that Biden plans to bring up human rights issues with bin Salman and the Saudis during their discussions, but they’ve also repeatedly underscored that the President is looking to reorient its relationship with the Middle Eastern nation.

“We are not overlooking any conduct that happened before the President took office,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Tuesday in regard to Khashoggi’s death, noting that Biden “issued an extensive report” from the intelligence community on the journalist’s killing.

“So, it’s important to also emphasize that while we [recalibrate] relationships, we are not looking to rupture relationships – but human rights issues, human rights conversation, is something that the President brings up with many leaders and plans to do so,” she continued.

Jean-Pierre also praised Saudi Arabia for having been “a strategic partner of the United States for nearly 80 years,” adding that “there’s no question that important interests are interwoven with Saudi Arabia, notably the recent extension of truce in Yemen, which has saved countless of lives.”

9/11 Families United, an organization consisting of the families of individuals killed during the September, 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, sent a letter to the President earlier this month urging him to ensure accountability for the 9/11 attacks is a key priority of his discussions with Saudi officials.

National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby told CNN’s “New Day” on Tuesday that Biden is expected to discuss a “range of human rights issues” with the crown prince during the trip, but he did not say whether concerns from the 9/11 families would be brought up during the upcoming talks.

And while the Saudis say they’ll be holding official talks with the US, Kirby refused to definitively characterize the meetings taking place between Biden and the Saudi Arabian government, adding that the President will hold “lots of bilateral discussions” with the nine heads of state present at the meeting, adding, “And yes, that will certainly include King Salman and his leadership team and we would expect that the Crown Prince will be part of those discussions.”

Still, there’s no sugarcoating it.

Sometimes presidents must do things they find distasteful or that appear hypocritical to advance what they perceive to be the national interest – that is what Biden is doing here. But his visit sends a message to states like Saudi Arabia, that as the US embarks on what looks like a new Cold War with China and Russia, repressive conduct is no barrier to relations with a President who put saving global democracy at the center of his foreign policy.

Biden, for instance, praised bin Salman’s “courage” in extending a truce in Yemen. But it was MBS who started the vicious war that killed thousands of civilians. So, Jean-Pierre’s remark Tuesday that the Saudi move had saved “countless” lives in the country was rather tone deaf.

Once a pariah. But no longer.