Daily Papers

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

With the rapid development of evaluation datasets to assess LLMs understanding across a wide range of subjects and domains, identifying a suitable language understanding benchmark has become increasingly challenging. In this work, we explore LLM evaluation challenges for low-resource language understanding and introduce ProverbEval, LLM evaluation benchmark for low-resource languages based on proverbs to focus on low-resource language understanding in culture-specific scenarios. We benchmark various LLMs and explore factors that create variability in the benchmarking process. We observed performance variances of up to 50%, depending on the order in which answer choices were presented in multiple-choice tasks. Native language proverb descriptions significantly improve tasks such as proverb generation, contributing to improved outcomes. Additionally, monolingual evaluations consistently outperformed their cross-lingual counterparts. We argue special attention must be given to the order of choices, choice of prompt language, task variability, and generation tasks when creating LLM evaluation benchmarks.

With the rapid development of Model Context Protocol (MCP), the number of MCP servers has surpassed 10,000. However, existing MCP benchmarks are limited to single-server settings with only a few tools, hindering effective evaluation of agent capabilities in large-scale, real-world scenarios. To address this limitation, we present LiveMCPBench, the first comprehensive benchmark comprising 95 real-world tasks grounded in the MCP ecosystem, designed to evaluate LLM agents at scale across diverse servers. To support a scalable and reproducible evaluation pipeline in large-scale MCP environments, we curate LiveMCPTool, a diverse and readily deployable collection of 70 MCP servers and 527 tools. Furthermore, we introduce LiveMCPEval, an LLM-as-a-Judge framework that enables automated and adaptive evaluation in dynamic, time-varying task environments, achieving 81% agreement with human reviewers. Finally, we propose the MCP Copilot Agent, a multi-step agent that routes tools for dynamic planning and executes tools for API interaction across the entire LiveMCPTool suite. Our evaluation covers 10 leading models, with the best-performing model (Claude-Sonnet-4) reaching a 78.95% success rate. However, we observe large performance variance across models, and several widely-used models perform poorly in LiveMCPBench's complex, tool-rich environments. Overall, LiveMCPBench offers the first unified framework for benchmarking LLM agents in realistic, tool-rich, and dynamic MCP environments, laying a solid foundation for scalable and reproducible research on agent capabilities. Our code and data will be publicly available at https://icip-cas.github.io/LiveMCPBench.

The propensity of abstractive summarization models to make factual errors has been studied extensively, including design of metrics to detect factual errors and annotation of errors in current systems' outputs. However, the ever-evolving nature of summarization systems, metrics, and annotated benchmarks makes factuality evaluation a moving target, and drawing clear comparisons among metrics has become increasingly difficult. In this work, we aggregate factuality error annotations from nine existing datasets and stratify them according to the underlying summarization model. We compare performance of state-of-the-art factuality metrics, including recent ChatGPT-based metrics, on this stratified benchmark and show that their performance varies significantly across different types of summarization models. Critically, our analysis shows that much of the recent improvement in the factuality detection space has been on summaries from older (pre-Transformer) models instead of more relevant recent summarization models. We further perform a finer-grained analysis per error-type and find similar performance variance across error types for different factuality metrics. Our results show that no one metric is superior in all settings or for all error types, and we provide recommendations for best practices given these insights.

Recently, we have witnessed the bloom of neural ranking models in the information retrieval (IR) field. So far, much effort has been devoted to developing effective neural ranking models that can generalize well on new data. There has been less attention paid to the robustness perspective. Unlike the effectiveness which is about the average performance of a system under normal purpose, robustness cares more about the system performance in the worst case or under malicious operations instead. When a new technique enters into the real-world application, it is critical to know not only how it works in average, but also how would it behave in abnormal situations. So we raise the question in this work: Are neural ranking models robust? To answer this question, firstly, we need to clarify what we refer to when we talk about the robustness of ranking models in IR. We show that robustness is actually a multi-dimensional concept and there are three ways to define it in IR: 1) The performance variance under the independent and identically distributed (I.I.D.) setting; 2) The out-of-distribution (OOD) generalizability; and 3) The defensive ability against adversarial operations. The latter two definitions can be further specified into two different perspectives respectively, leading to 5 robustness tasks in total. Based on this taxonomy, we build corresponding benchmark datasets, design empirical experiments, and systematically analyze the robustness of several representative neural ranking models against traditional probabilistic ranking models and learning-to-rank (LTR) models. The empirical results show that there is no simple answer to our question. While neural ranking models are less robust against other IR models in most cases, some of them can still win 1 out of 5 tasks. This is the first comprehensive study on the robustness of neural ranking models.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) with Mixture of Experts (MoE) layers have gained significant attention. Currently, state-of-the-art LLMs utilize this architecture. There is a substantial amount of research on how to train such models and how to select hyperparameters for this architecture. However, there is a lack of studies focusing on post-evaluation analysis of MoE layer properties. In this paper, we take a first step toward closing this gap by evaluating expert contributions on the quiz-based MMLU benchmark. We show that most experts were never activated during inference on this benchmark. Additionally, the output distribution of gating networks is much closer to uniform than sparse. Finally, we demonstrate that the average performance of some experts within the same layer varies significantly.

Effective disaster management requires timely access to accurate and contextually relevant information. Existing Information Retrieval (IR) benchmarks, however, focus primarily on general or specialized domains, such as medicine or finance, neglecting the unique linguistic complexity and diverse information needs encountered in disaster management scenarios. To bridge this gap, we introduce DisastIR, the first comprehensive IR evaluation benchmark specifically tailored for disaster management. DisastIR comprises 9,600 diverse user queries and more than 1.3 million labeled query-passage pairs, covering 48 distinct retrieval tasks derived from six search intents and eight general disaster categories that include 301 specific event types. Our evaluations of 30 state-of-the-art retrieval models demonstrate significant performance variances across tasks, with no single model excelling universally. Furthermore, comparative analyses reveal significant performance gaps between general-domain and disaster management-specific tasks, highlighting the necessity of disaster management-specific benchmarks for guiding IR model selection to support effective decision-making in disaster management scenarios. All source codes and DisastIR are available at https://github.com/KaiYin97/Disaster_IR.

The large-scale training of multi-modal models on data scraped from the web has shown outstanding utility in infusing these models with the required world knowledge to perform effectively on multiple downstream tasks. However, one downside of scraping data from the web can be the potential sacrifice of the benchmarks on which the abilities of these models are often evaluated. To safeguard against test data contamination and to truly test the abilities of these foundation models we propose LiveXiv: A scalable evolving live benchmark based on scientific ArXiv papers. LiveXiv accesses domain-specific manuscripts at any given timestamp and proposes to automatically generate visual question-answer pairs (VQA). This is done without any human-in-the-loop, using the multi-modal content in the manuscripts, like graphs, charts, and tables. Moreover, we introduce an efficient evaluation approach that estimates the performance of all models on the evolving benchmark using evaluations of only a subset of models. This significantly reduces the overall evaluation cost. We benchmark multiple open and proprietary Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) on the first version of our benchmark, showing its challenging nature and exposing the models true abilities, avoiding contamination. Lastly, in our commitment to high quality, we have collected and evaluated a manually verified subset. By comparing its overall results to our automatic annotations, we have found that the performance variance is indeed minimal (<2.5%). Our dataset is available online on HuggingFace, and our code will be available here.

Prompt sensitivity, referring to the phenomenon where paraphrasing (i.e., repeating something written or spoken using different words) leads to significant changes in large language model (LLM) performance, has been widely accepted as a core limitation of LLMs. In this work, we revisit this issue and ask: Is the widely reported high prompt sensitivity truly an inherent weakness of LLMs, or is it largely an artifact of evaluation processes? To answer this question, we systematically evaluate 7 LLMs (e.g., GPT and Gemini family) across 6 benchmarks, including both multiple-choice and open-ended tasks on 12 diverse prompt templates. We find that much of the prompt sensitivity stems from heuristic evaluation methods, including log-likelihood scoring and rigid answer matching, which often overlook semantically correct responses expressed through alternative phrasings, such as synonyms or paraphrases. When we adopt LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations, we observe a substantial reduction in performance variance and a consistently higher correlation in model rankings across prompts. Our findings suggest that modern LLMs are more robust to prompt templates than previously believed, and that prompt sensitivity may be more an artifact of evaluation than a flaw in the models.

Comprehensive evaluation of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has recently garnered widespread attention in the research community. However, we observe that existing benchmarks present several common barriers that make it difficult to measure the significant challenges that models face in the real world, including: 1) small data scale leads to a large performance variance; 2) reliance on model-based annotations results in restricted data quality; 3) insufficient task difficulty, especially caused by the limited image resolution. To tackle these issues, we introduce MME-RealWorld. Specifically, we collect more than 300K images from public datasets and the Internet, filtering 13,366 high-quality images for annotation. This involves the efforts of professional 25 annotators and 7 experts in MLLMs, contributing to 29,429 question-answer pairs that cover 43 subtasks across 5 real-world scenarios, extremely challenging even for humans. As far as we know, MME-RealWorld is the largest manually annotated benchmark to date, featuring the highest resolution and a targeted focus on real-world applications. We further conduct a thorough evaluation involving 28 prominent MLLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Our results show that even the most advanced models struggle with our benchmarks, where none of them reach 60% accuracy. The challenges of perceiving high-resolution images and understanding complex real-world scenarios remain urgent issues to be addressed. The data and evaluation code are released at https://mme-realworld.github.io/ .

In recent years, prompt tuning has proven effective in adapting pre-trained vision-language models to downstream tasks. These methods aim to adapt the pre-trained models by introducing learnable prompts while keeping pre-trained weights frozen. However, learnable prompts can affect the internal representation within the self-attention module, which may negatively impact performance variance and generalization, especially in data-deficient settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach, Read-only Prompt Optimization (RPO). RPO leverages masked attention to prevent the internal representation shift in the pre-trained model. Further, to facilitate the optimization of RPO, the read-only prompts are initialized based on special tokens of the pre-trained model. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that RPO outperforms CLIP and CoCoOp in base-to-new generalization and domain generalization while displaying better robustness. Also, the proposed method achieves better generalization on extremely data-deficient settings, while improving parameter efficiency and computational overhead. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/RPO.

Prior work has shown that presupposition in generated questions can introduce unverified assumptions, leading to inconsistencies in claim verification. Additionally, prompt sensitivity remains a significant challenge for large language models (LLMs), resulting in performance variance as high as 3-6%. While recent advancements have reduced this gap, our study demonstrates that prompt sensitivity remains a persistent issue. To address this, we propose a structured and robust claim verification framework that reasons through presupposition-free, decomposed questions. Extensive experiments across multiple prompts, datasets, and LLMs reveal that even state-of-the-art models remain susceptible to prompt variance and presupposition. Our method consistently mitigates these issues, achieving up to a 2-5% improvement.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce inconsistent answers when faced with different phrasings of the same prompt. In this paper, we propose Flip-Flop Consistency (F^2C), an unsupervised training method that improves robustness to such perturbations. F^2C is composed of two key components. The first, Consensus Cross-Entropy (CCE), uses a majority vote across prompt variations to create a hard pseudo-label. The second is a representation alignment loss that pulls lower-confidence and non-majority predictors toward the consensus established by high-confidence, majority-voting variations. We evaluate our method on 11 datasets spanning four NLP tasks, with 4-15 prompt variations per dataset. On average, F^2C raises observed agreement by 11.62%, improves mean F_1 by 8.94%, and reduces performance variance across formats by 3.29%. In out-of-domain evaluations, F^2C generalizes effectively, increasing F_1 and agreement while decreasing variance across most source-target pairs. Finally, when trained on only a subset of prompt perturbations and evaluated on held-out formats, F^2C consistently improves both performance and agreement while reducing variance. These findings highlight F^2C as an effective unsupervised method for enhancing LLM consistency, performance, and generalization under prompt perturbations. Code is available at https://github.com/ParsaHejabi/Flip-Flop-Consistency-Unsupervised-Training-for-Robustness-to-Prompt-Perturbations-in-LLMs.

The success of AI assistants based on language models (LLMs) hinges crucially on Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), which enables the generation of responses more aligned with human preferences. As universal AI assistants, there's a growing expectation for them to perform consistently across various domains. However, previous work shows that Reinforcement Learning (RL) often exploits shortcuts to attain high rewards and overlooks challenging samples. This focus on quick reward gains undermines both the stability in training and the model's ability to generalize to new, unseen data. In this work, we propose a novel approach that can learn a consistent policy via RL across various data groups or domains. Given the challenges associated with acquiring group annotations, our method automatically classifies data into different groups, deliberately maximizing performance variance. Then, we optimize the policy to perform well on challenging groups. Lastly, leveraging the established groups, our approach adaptively adjusts the exploration space, allocating more learning capacity to more challenging data and preventing the model from over-optimizing on simpler data. Experimental results indicate that our approach significantly enhances training stability and model generalization.

Large language models excel in general tasks, yet assessing their reliability in logic-heavy, precision-critical domains like finance, law, and healthcare remains challenging. To address this, we introduce BizFinBench, the first benchmark specifically designed to evaluate LLMs in real-world financial applications. BizFinBench consists of 6,781 well-annotated queries in Chinese, spanning five dimensions: numerical calculation, reasoning, information extraction, prediction recognition, and knowledge-based question answering, grouped into nine fine-grained categories. The benchmark includes both objective and subjective metrics. We also introduce IteraJudge, a novel LLM evaluation method that reduces bias when LLMs serve as evaluators in objective metrics. We benchmark 25 models, including both proprietary and open-source systems. Extensive experiments show that no model dominates across all tasks. Our evaluation reveals distinct capability patterns: (1) In Numerical Calculation, Claude-3.5-Sonnet (63.18) and DeepSeek-R1 (64.04) lead, while smaller models like Qwen2.5-VL-3B (15.92) lag significantly; (2) In Reasoning, proprietary models dominate (ChatGPT-o3: 83.58, Gemini-2.0-Flash: 81.15), with open-source models trailing by up to 19.49 points; (3) In Information Extraction, the performance spread is the largest, with DeepSeek-R1 scoring 71.46, while Qwen3-1.7B scores 11.23; (4) In Prediction Recognition, performance variance is minimal, with top models scoring between 39.16 and 50.00. We find that while current LLMs handle routine finance queries competently, they struggle with complex scenarios requiring cross-concept reasoning. BizFinBench offers a rigorous, business-aligned benchmark for future research. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/HiThink-Research/BizFinBench.

Reinforcement learning (RL)-based fine-tuning has emerged as a powerful approach for aligning diffusion models with black-box objectives. Proximal policy optimization (PPO) is the most popular choice of method for policy optimization. While effective in terms of performance, PPO is highly sensitive to hyper-parameters and involves substantial computational overhead. REINFORCE, on the other hand, mitigates some computational complexities such as high memory overhead and sensitive hyper-parameter tuning, but has suboptimal performance due to high-variance and sample inefficiency. While the variance of the REINFORCE can be reduced by sampling multiple actions per input prompt and using a baseline correction term, it still suffers from sample inefficiency. To address these challenges, we systematically analyze the efficiency-effectiveness trade-off between REINFORCE and PPO, and propose leave-one-out PPO (LOOP), a novel RL for diffusion fine-tuning method. LOOP combines variance reduction techniques from REINFORCE, such as sampling multiple actions per input prompt and a baseline correction term, with the robustness and sample efficiency of PPO via clipping and importance sampling. Our results demonstrate that LOOP effectively improves diffusion models on various black-box objectives, and achieves a better balance between computational efficiency and performance.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performances of three portfolio optimization approaches. Three approaches of portfolio optimization that are considered in this work are the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP) portfolio, and reinforcement learning-based portfolio. The portfolios are trained and tested over several stock data and their performances are compared on their annual returns, annual risks, and Sharpe ratios. In the reinforcement learning-based portfolio design approach, the deep Q learning technique has been utilized. Due to the large number of possible states, the construction of the Q-table is done using a deep neural network. The historical prices of the 50 premier stocks from the Indian stock market, known as the NIFTY50 stocks, and several stocks from 10 important sectors of the Indian stock market are used to create the environment for training the agent.

This paper first answers the question "why do the two most powerful techniques Dropout and Batch Normalization (BN) often lead to a worse performance when they are combined together?" in both theoretical and statistical aspects. Theoretically, we find that Dropout would shift the variance of a specific neural unit when we transfer the state of that network from train to test. However, BN would maintain its statistical variance, which is accumulated from the entire learning procedure, in the test phase. The inconsistency of that variance (we name this scheme as "variance shift") causes the unstable numerical behavior in inference that leads to more erroneous predictions finally, when applying Dropout before BN. Thorough experiments on DenseNet, ResNet, ResNeXt and Wide ResNet confirm our findings. According to the uncovered mechanism, we next explore several strategies that modifies Dropout and try to overcome the limitations of their combination by avoiding the variance shift risks.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) can exhibit impressive proficiency in isolated, short-term tasks, they often fail to maintain coherent performance over longer time horizons. In this paper, we present Vending-Bench, a simulated environment designed to specifically test an LLM-based agent's ability to manage a straightforward, long-running business scenario: operating a vending machine. Agents must balance inventories, place orders, set prices, and handle daily fees - tasks that are each simple but collectively, over long horizons (>20M tokens per run) stress an LLM's capacity for sustained, coherent decision-making. Our experiments reveal high variance in performance across multiple LLMs: Claude 3.5 Sonnet and o3-mini manage the machine well in most runs and turn a profit, but all models have runs that derail, either through misinterpreting delivery schedules, forgetting orders, or descending into tangential "meltdown" loops from which they rarely recover. We find no clear correlation between failures and the point at which the model's context window becomes full, suggesting that these breakdowns do not stem from memory limits. Apart from highlighting the high variance in performance over long time horizons, Vending-Bench also tests models' ability to acquire capital, a necessity in many hypothetical dangerous AI scenarios. We hope the benchmark can help in preparing for the advent of stronger AI systems.

The ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate structured outputs, such as JSON, is crucial for their use in Compound AI Systems. However, evaluating and improving this capability remains challenging. In this work, we introduce StructuredRAG, a benchmark of six tasks designed to assess LLMs' proficiency in following response format instructions. We evaluate two state-of-the-art LLMs, Gemini 1.5 Pro and Llama 3 8B-instruct with 4-bit quantization using two distinct prompting strategies. We introduce these prompting strategies as f-String and Follow the Format (FF) prompting. Across 24 experiments, we find an average success rate of 82.55%. We further find a high variance in performance across tasks, models, and prompting strategies with success rates ranging from 0 to 100%. We find that Llama 3 8B-instruct often performs competitively with Gemini 1.5 Pro. We observe that task complexity significantly influences performance, with tasks involving lists or composite object outputs proving more challenging. Our findings highlight the need for further research into improving the reliability and consistency of structured output generation in LLMs. We have open-sourced our experimental code and results at github.com/weaviate/structured-rag.

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a computational point of view and cannot be applied to maximum likelihood training in a scalable manner, which severely hinders their widespread adoption. In this work, we overcome these crucial limitations. Specifically, we propose a fast path gradient estimator which improves computational efficiency significantly and works for all normalizing flow architectures of practical relevance. We then show that this estimator can also be applied to maximum likelihood training for which it has a regularizing effect as it can take the form of a given target energy function into account. We empirically establish its superior performance and reduced variance for several natural sciences applications.

Fine-tuning over large pretrained language models (PLMs) has established many state-of-the-art results. Despite its superior performance, such fine-tuning can be unstable, resulting in significant variance in performance and potential risks for practical applications. Previous works have attributed such instability to the catastrophic forgetting problem in the top layers of PLMs, which indicates iteratively that fine-tuning layers in a top-down manner is a promising solution. In this paper, we first point out that this method does not always work out due to the different convergence speeds of different layers/modules. Inspired by this observation, we propose a simple component-wise gradient norm clipping method to adjust the convergence speed for different components. Experiment results demonstrate that our method achieves consistent improvements in terms of generalization performance, convergence speed, and training stability. The codebase can be found at https://github.com/yangalan123/FineTuningStability.

Pretraining sentence encoders with language modeling and related unsupervised tasks has recently been shown to be very effective for language understanding tasks. By supplementing language model-style pretraining with further training on data-rich supervised tasks, such as natural language inference, we obtain additional performance improvements on the GLUE benchmark. Applying supplementary training on BERT (Devlin et al., 2018), we attain a GLUE score of 81.8---the state of the art (as of 02/24/2019) and a 1.4 point improvement over BERT. We also observe reduced variance across random restarts in this setting. Our approach yields similar improvements when applied to ELMo (Peters et al., 2018a) and Radford et al. (2018)'s model. In addition, the benefits of supplementary training are particularly pronounced in data-constrained regimes, as we show in experiments with artificially limited training data.

Large-scale pre-trained language models (PLMs) are well-known for being capable of solving a task simply by conditioning a few input-label pairs dubbed demonstrations on a prompt without being explicitly tuned for the desired downstream task. Such a process (i.e., in-context learning), however, naturally leads to high reliance on the demonstrations which are usually selected from external datasets. In this paper, we propose self-generated in-context learning (SG-ICL), which generates demonstrations for in-context learning from PLM itself to minimize the reliance on the external demonstration. We conduct experiments on four different text classification tasks and show SG-ICL significantly outperforms zero-shot learning and is generally worth approximately 0.6 gold training samples. Moreover, our generated demonstrations show more consistent performance with low variance compared to randomly selected demonstrations from the training dataset.

We consider two data driven approaches, Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Deep Trajectory-based Stochastic Optimal Control (DTSOC) for hedging a European call option without and with transaction cost according to a quadratic hedging P&L objective at maturity ("variance-optimal hedging" or "final quadratic hedging"). We study the performance of the two approaches under various market environments (modeled via the Black-Scholes and/or the log-normal SABR model) to understand their advantages and limitations. Without transaction costs and in the Black-Scholes model, both approaches match the performance of the variance-optimal Delta hedge. In the log-normal SABR model without transaction costs, they match the performance of the variance-optimal Barlett's Delta hedge. Agents trained on Black-Scholes trajectories with matching initial volatility but used on SABR trajectories match the performance of Bartlett's Delta hedge in average cost, but show substantially wider variance. To apply RL approaches to these problems, P&L at maturity is written as sum of step-wise contributions and variants of RL algorithms are implemented and used that minimize expectation of second moments of such sums.

We consider the problem of Learning from Label Proportions (LLP), a weakly supervised classification setup where instances are grouped into "bags", and only the frequency of class labels at each bag is available. Albeit, the objective of the learner is to achieve low task loss at an individual instance level. Here we propose Easyllp: a flexible and simple-to-implement debiasing approach based on aggregate labels, which operates on arbitrary loss functions. Our technique allows us to accurately estimate the expected loss of an arbitrary model at an individual level. We showcase the flexibility of our approach by applying it to popular learning frameworks, like Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) and Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with provable guarantees on instance level performance. More concretely, we exhibit a variance reduction technique that makes the quality of LLP learning deteriorate only by a factor of k (k being bag size) in both ERM and SGD setups, as compared to full supervision. Finally, we validate our theoretical results on multiple datasets demonstrating our algorithm performs as well or better than previous LLP approaches in spite of its simplicity.

We present BIS Reasoning 1.0, the first large-scale Japanese dataset of syllogistic reasoning problems explicitly designed to evaluate belief-inconsistent reasoning in large language models (LLMs). Unlike prior datasets such as NeuBAROCO and JFLD, which focus on general or belief-aligned reasoning, BIS Reasoning 1.0 introduces logically valid yet belief-inconsistent syllogisms to uncover reasoning biases in LLMs trained on human-aligned corpora. We benchmark state-of-the-art models - including GPT models, Claude models, and leading Japanese LLMs - revealing significant variance in performance, with GPT-4o achieving 79.54% accuracy. Our analysis identifies critical weaknesses in current LLMs when handling logically valid but belief-conflicting inputs. These findings have important implications for deploying LLMs in high-stakes domains such as law, healthcare, and scientific literature, where truth must override intuitive belief to ensure integrity and safety.

The goal of meta-learning is to learn to adapt to a new task with only a few labeled examples. To tackle this problem in NLP, we propose in-context tuning, which recasts adaptation and prediction as a simple sequence prediction problem: to form the input sequence, we concatenate the task instruction, the labeled examples, and the target input to predict; to meta-train the model to learn from in-context examples, we fine-tune a pre-trained language model (LM) to predict the target label from the input sequences on a collection of tasks. We benchmark our method on two collections of text classification tasks: LAMA and BinaryClfs. Compared to first-order MAML which adapts the model with gradient descent, our method better leverages the inductive bias of LMs to perform pattern matching, and outperforms MAML by an absolute 6% AUC ROC score on BinaryClfs, with increasing advantage w.r.t. model size. Compared to non-fine-tuned in-context learning (i.e. prompting a raw LM), in-context tuning directly learns to learn from in-context examples. On BinaryClfs, in-context tuning improves the average AUC-ROC score by an absolute 10%, and reduces the variance with respect to example ordering by 6x and example choices by 2x.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into daily applications, it is essential to ensure they operate fairly across diverse user demographics. In this work, we show that LLMs suffer from personalization bias, where their performance is impacted when they are personalized to a user's identity. We quantify personalization bias by evaluating the performance of LLMs along two axes - safety and utility. We measure safety by examining how benign LLM responses are to unsafe prompts with and without personalization. We measure utility by evaluating the LLM's performance on various tasks, including general knowledge, mathematical abilities, programming, and reasoning skills. We find that various LLMs, ranging from open-source models like Llama (Touvron et al., 2023) and Mistral (Jiang et al., 2023) to API-based ones like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4o (Ouyang et al., 2022), exhibit significant variance in performance in terms of safety-utility trade-offs depending on the user's identity. Finally, we discuss several strategies to mitigate personalization bias using preference tuning and prompt-based defenses.

Increasingly expensive training of ever larger models such as Vision Transfomers motivate reusing the vast library of already trained state-of-the-art networks. However, their latency, high computational costs and memory demands pose significant challenges for deployment, especially on resource-constrained hardware. While structured pruning methods can reduce these factors, they often require costly retraining, sometimes for up to hundreds of epochs, or even training from scratch to recover the lost accuracy resulting from the structural modifications. Maintaining the provided performance of trained models after structured pruning and thereby avoiding extensive retraining remains a challenge. To solve this, we introduce Variance-Based Pruning, a simple and structured one-shot pruning technique for efficiently compressing networks, with minimal finetuning. Our approach first gathers activation statistics, which are used to select neurons for pruning. Simultaneously the mean activations are integrated back into the model to preserve a high degree of performance. On ImageNet-1k recognition tasks, we demonstrate that directly after pruning DeiT-Base retains over 70% of its original performance and requires only 10 epochs of fine-tuning to regain 99% of the original accuracy while simultaneously reducing MACs by 35% and model size by 36%, thus speeding up the model by 1.44x.

The stock market offers a platform where people buy and sell shares of publicly listed companies. Generally, stock prices are quite volatile; hence predicting them is a daunting task. There is still much research going to develop more accuracy in stock price prediction. Portfolio construction refers to the allocation of different sector stocks optimally to achieve a maximum return by taking a minimum risk. A good portfolio can help investors earn maximum profit by taking a minimum risk. Beginning with Dow Jones Theory a lot of advancement has happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. In this project, we have tried to predict the future value of a few stocks from six important sectors of the Indian economy and also built a portfolio. As part of the project, our team has conducted a study of the performance of various Time series, machine learning, and deep learning models in stock price prediction on selected stocks from the chosen six important sectors of the economy. As part of building an efficient portfolio, we have studied multiple portfolio optimization theories beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built a minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the six chosen sectors by using the daily stock prices over the past five years as training data and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. We look forward to continuing our study in the area of stock price prediction and asset allocation and consider this project as the first stepping stone.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Training deep generative models like Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) is often hindered by the need to backpropagate gradients through the stochastic sampling of their latent variables, a process that inherently introduces estimation variance, which can slow convergence and degrade performance. In this paper, we propose a new perspective that sidesteps this problem, which we call Silent Gradients. Instead of improving stochastic estimators, we leverage specific decoder architectures to analytically compute the expected ELBO, yielding a gradient with zero variance. We first provide a theoretical foundation for this method and demonstrate its superiority over existing estimators in a controlled setting with a linear decoder. To generalize our approach for practical use with complex, expressive decoders, we introduce a novel training dynamic that uses the exact, zero-variance gradient to guide the early stages of encoder training before annealing to a standard stochastic estimator. Our experiments show that this technique consistently improves the performance of established baselines, including reparameterization, Gumbel-Softmax, and REINFORCE, across multiple datasets. This work opens a new direction for training generative models by combining the stability of analytical computation with the expressiveness of deep, nonlinear architecture.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Mirror descent value iteration (MDVI), an abstraction of Kullback-Leibler (KL) and entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (RL), has served as the basis for recent high-performing practical RL algorithms. However, despite the use of function approximation in practice, the theoretical understanding of MDVI has been limited to tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). We study MDVI with linear function approximation through its sample complexity required to identify an varepsilon-optimal policy with probability 1-delta under the settings of an infinite-horizon linear MDP, generative model, and G-optimal design. We demonstrate that least-squares regression weighted by the variance of an estimated optimal value function of the next state is crucial to achieving minimax optimality. Based on this observation, we present Variance-Weighted Least-Squares MDVI (VWLS-MDVI), the first theoretical algorithm that achieves nearly minimax optimal sample complexity for infinite-horizon linear MDPs. Furthermore, we propose a practical VWLS algorithm for value-based deep RL, Deep Variance Weighting (DVW). Our experiments demonstrate that DVW improves the performance of popular value-based deep RL algorithms on a set of MinAtar benchmarks.

Group-based policy optimization methods like GRPO and GSPO have become standard for training multimodal models, leveraging group-wise rollouts and relative advantage estimation. However, they suffer from a critical gradient vanishing problem when all responses within a group receive identical rewards, causing advantage estimates to collapse and training signals to diminish. Existing attempts to mitigate this issue fall into two paradigms: filtering-based and sampling-based methods. Filtering-based methods first generate rollouts broadly and then retroactively filter out uninformative groups, leading to substantial computational overhead. Sampling-based methods proactively select effective samples before rollout but rely on static criteria or prior dataset knowledge, lacking real-time adaptability. To address these issues, we propose VADE, a Variance-Aware Dynamic sampling framework via online sample-level difficulty Estimation. Our framework integrates three key components: online sample-level difficulty estimation using Beta distributions, a Thompson sampler that maximizes information gain through the estimated correctness probability, and a two-scale prior decay mechanism that maintains robust estimation under policy evolution. This three components design enables VADE to dynamically select the most informative samples, thereby amplifying training signals while eliminating extra rollout costs. Extensive experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that VADE consistently outperforms strong baselines in both performance and sample efficiency, while achieving a dramatic reduction in computational overhead. More importantly, our framework can serves as a plug-and-play component to be seamlessly integrated into existing group-based RL algorithms. Code and models are available at https://VADE-RL.github.io.

Recent research on texture synthesis for 3D shapes benefits a lot from dramatically developed 2D text-to-image diffusion models, including inpainting-based and optimization-based approaches. However, these methods ignore the modal gap between the 2D diffusion model and 3D objects, which primarily render 3D objects into 2D images and texture each image separately. In this paper, we revisit the texture synthesis and propose a Variance alignment based 3D-2D Collaborative Denoising framework, dubbed VCD-Texture, to address these issues. Formally, we first unify both 2D and 3D latent feature learning in diffusion self-attention modules with re-projected 3D attention receptive fields. Subsequently, the denoised multi-view 2D latent features are aggregated into 3D space and then rasterized back to formulate more consistent 2D predictions. However, the rasterization process suffers from an intractable variance bias, which is theoretically addressed by the proposed variance alignment, achieving high-fidelity texture synthesis. Moreover, we present an inpainting refinement to further improve the details with conflicting regions. Notably, there is not a publicly available benchmark to evaluate texture synthesis, which hinders its development. Thus we construct a new evaluation set built upon three open-source 3D datasets and propose to use four metrics to thoroughly validate the texturing performance. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that VCD-Texture achieves superior performance against other counterparts.

Policy-based reinforcement learning currently plays an important role in improving LLMs on mathematical reasoning tasks. However, existing rollout-based reinforcement learning methods (GRPO, DAPO, GSPO, etc.) fail to explicitly consider LLMs' learning ability for samples of different difficulty levels, which is contrary to the human cognitive process of mathematical reasoning tasks from easy to difficult. Intuitively, we find that the variance of the rollout group's reward in RLVR partly reflects the difficulty of the current sample for LLMs. Samples that are too easy or too difficult have a lower variance, while samples with moderate difficulty have a higher variance. Based on this, we propose VCRL, a curriculum reinforcement learning framework that dynamically controls the difficulty of training samples based on the variance of group rewards. Experiments on five mathematical benchmarks and two models reveal the advantages of VCRL over the current LLM RL baselines.

Foundation models (FMs) are pre-trained on large-scale datasets and then fine-tuned on a downstream task for a specific application. The most successful and most commonly used fine-tuning method is to update the pre-trained weights via a low-rank adaptation (LoRA). LoRA introduces new weight matrices that are usually initialized at random with a uniform rank distribution across model weights. Recent works focus on weight-driven initialization or learning of adaptive ranks during training. Both approaches have only been investigated in isolation, resulting in slow convergence or a uniform rank distribution, in turn leading to sub-optimal performance. We propose to enhance LoRA by initializing the new weights in a data-driven manner by computing singular value decomposition on minibatches of activation vectors. Then, we initialize the LoRA matrices with the obtained right-singular vectors and re-distribute ranks among all weight matrices to explain the maximal amount of variance and continue the standard LoRA fine-tuning procedure. This results in our new method Explained Variance Adaptation (EVA). We apply EVA to a variety of fine-tuning tasks ranging from language generation and understanding to image classification and reinforcement learning. EVA exhibits faster convergence than competitors and attains the highest average score across a multitude of tasks per domain.

While Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs), such as LLaDA, present a promising paradigm for language modeling, there has been relatively little effort in aligning these models with human preferences via reinforcement learning. The challenge primarily arises from the high variance in Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO)-based likelihood estimates required for preference optimization. To address this issue, we propose Variance-Reduced Preference Optimization (VRPO), a framework that formally analyzes the variance of ELBO estimators and derives bounds on both the bias and variance of preference optimization gradients. Building on this theoretical foundation, we introduce unbiased variance reduction strategies, including optimal Monte Carlo budget allocation and antithetic sampling, that significantly improve the performance of MDM alignment. We demonstrate the effectiveness of VRPO by applying it to LLaDA, and the resulting model, LLaDA 1.5, outperforms its SFT-only predecessor consistently and significantly across mathematical (GSM8K +4.7), code (HumanEval +3.0, MBPP +1.8), and alignment benchmarks (IFEval +4.0, Arena-Hard +4.3). Furthermore, LLaDA 1.5 demonstrates a highly competitive mathematical performance compared to strong language MDMs and ARMs. Project page: https://ml-gsai.github.io/LLaDA-1.5-Demo/.

This work addresses the challenge of high-quality surface normal estimation from monocular colored inputs (i.e., images and videos), a field which has recently been revolutionized by repurposing diffusion priors. However, previous attempts still struggle with stochastic inference, conflicting with the deterministic nature of the Image2Normal task, and costly ensembling step, which slows down the estimation process. Our method, StableNormal, mitigates the stochasticity of the diffusion process by reducing inference variance, thus producing "Stable-and-Sharp" normal estimates without any additional ensembling process. StableNormal works robustly under challenging imaging conditions, such as extreme lighting, blurring, and low quality. It is also robust against transparent and reflective surfaces, as well as cluttered scenes with numerous objects. Specifically, StableNormal employs a coarse-to-fine strategy, which starts with a one-step normal estimator (YOSO) to derive an initial normal guess, that is relatively coarse but reliable, then followed by a semantic-guided refinement process (SG-DRN) that refines the normals to recover geometric details. The effectiveness of StableNormal is demonstrated through competitive performance in standard datasets such as DIODE-indoor, iBims, ScannetV2 and NYUv2, and also in various downstream tasks, such as surface reconstruction and normal enhancement. These results evidence that StableNormal retains both the "stability" and "sharpness" for accurate normal estimation. StableNormal represents a baby attempt to repurpose diffusion priors for deterministic estimation. To democratize this, code and models have been publicly available in hf.co/Stable-X

The R-Mode system, an advanced terrestrial integrated navigation system, is designed to address the vulnerabilities of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and explore the potential of a complementary navigation system. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of performance simulation for the medium frequency (MF) R-Mode system by modeling the variance of time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements based on actual data. Drawing inspiration from the method used to calculate the standard deviation of time-of-reception (TOR) measurements in Loran, we adapted and applied this approach to the MF R-Mode system. Data were collected from transmitters in Palmi and Chungju, South Korea, and the parameters for modeling the variance of TOA were estimated.

Diffusion-based imitation learning improves Behavioral Cloning (BC) on multi-modal decision-making, but comes at the cost of significantly slower inference due to the recursion in the diffusion process. It urges us to design efficient policy generators while keeping the ability to generate diverse actions. To address this challenge, we propose AdaFlow, an imitation learning framework based on flow-based generative modeling. AdaFlow represents the policy with state-conditioned ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which are known as probability flows. We reveal an intriguing connection between the conditional variance of their training loss and the discretization error of the ODEs. With this insight, we propose a variance-adaptive ODE solver that can adjust its step size in the inference stage, making AdaFlow an adaptive decision-maker, offering rapid inference without sacrificing diversity. Interestingly, it automatically reduces to a one-step generator when the action distribution is uni-modal. Our comprehensive empirical evaluation shows that AdaFlow achieves high performance with fast inference speed.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Portfolio design and optimization have been always an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers from the finance domain. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks and making a suitable tradeoff between them. This paper proposes a systematic approach to designing portfolios using two algorithms, the critical line algorithm, and the hierarchical risk parity algorithm on eight sectors of the Indian stock market. While the portfolios are designed using the stock price data from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020, they are tested on the data from Jan 1, 2021, to Aug 26, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate while the performance of the CLA algorithm is superior on the training data, the HRP algorithm has outperformed the CLA algorithm on the test data.

Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) stands out as a prominent method for image representation learning. Various neural architectures, spanning Transformer-based models like Vision Transformers (ViTs) to Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) like ResNets, are trained with CLIP and serve as universal backbones across diverse vision tasks. Despite utilizing the same data and training objectives, the effectiveness of representations learned by these architectures raises a critical question. Our investigation explores the differences in CLIP performance among these backbone architectures, revealing significant disparities in their classifications. Notably, normalizing these representations results in substantial performance variations. Our findings showcase a remarkable possible synergy between backbone predictions that could reach an improvement of over 20% through informed selection of the appropriate backbone. Moreover, we propose a simple, yet effective approach to combine predictions from multiple backbones, leading to a notable performance boost of up to 6.34\%. We will release the code for reproducing the results.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

The outcome of Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training strongly depends on weight initialization and variance control strategies. Although the importance of initial variance control has been well documented in neural networks in general, the literature on initialization and management of its growth during LLM pre-training, specifically, is somewhat sparse. In this paper, we introduce the Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) weight initialization scheme, and the Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) variance control strategy. Experiments on a 1B parameter LLaMA model demonstrate that better variance management using these techniques yields substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6% on common pre-training benchmarks) and reduces extreme activation values, thus mitigating challenges associated with quantization and low-precision training. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/weight_rescaling.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces before producing final answers, yielding strong gains on multi-step and mathematical tasks. Yet aligning LRMs with human preferences, a crucial prerequisite for model deployment, remains underexplored. The statistically correct objective for preference alignment requires marginalizing over reasoning traces, but this computation is intractable in practice. A common workaround optimizes a single sampled trajectory, which introduces substantial gradient variance from stochastic trace sampling. To address this challenge, we frame preference optimization for LRMs through the lens of the bias--variance trade-off and propose Bias--Variance Optimized Preference Optimization (BVPO), a simple, drop-in method that mixes two gradient estimators: a high-variance trace-based estimator and a low-variance empty-trace estimator obtained by disabling reasoning trace generation. Our theory shows that BVPO strictly reduces trace-induced variance for any nontrivial mixture, provides a closed-form choice of the mixing weight that minimizes mean-squared error relative to the true marginal gradient, and under standard smoothness and step-size conditions, tightens classical convergence bounds for stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, BVPO improves alignment over the best baseline by up to 7.8 points on AlpacaEval~2 and 6.8 points on Arena-Hard. Despite being trained only on general conversational data, BVPO also boosts reasoning performance for base models by up to 4.0 points on the average of six math reasoning benchmarks. These results identify variance from trace sampling as a key bottleneck and demonstrate that directly optimizing the bias--variance trade-off yields more stable training and stronger overall performance.

This paper presents a dynamic cryptocurrency portfolio optimization strategy that integrates technical indicators and sentiment analysis to enhance investment decision-making. The proposed method employs the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to capture market momentum, while sentiment scores are extracted from news articles using the VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) model, with compound scores quantifying overall market tone. The large language model Google Gemini is used to further verify the sentiment scores predicted by VADER and give investment decisions. These technical indicator and sentiment signals are incorporated into the expected return estimates before applying mean-variance optimization with constraints on asset weights. The strategy is evaluated through a rolling-window backtest over cryptocurrency market data, with Bitcoin (BTC) and an equal-weighted portfolio of selected cryptocurrencies serving as benchmarks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves a cumulative return of 38.72, substantially exceeding Bitcoin's 8.85 and the equal-weighted portfolio's 21.65 over the same period, and delivers a higher Sharpe ratio (1.1093 vs. 0.8853 and 1.0194, respectively). However, the strategy exhibits a larger maximum drawdown (-18.52%) compared to Bitcoin (-4.48%) and the equal-weighted portfolio (-11.02%), indicating higher short-term downside risk. These results highlight the potential of combining sentiment and technical signals to improve cryptocurrency portfolio performance, while also emphasizing the need to address risk exposure in volatile markets.

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) are a versatile and powerful tool for encoding various forms of data, including images, videos, sound, and 3D shapes. A critical factor in the success of INRs is the initialization of the network, which can significantly impact the convergence and accuracy of the learned model. Unfortunately, commonly used neural network initializations are not widely applicable for many activation functions, especially those used by INRs. In this paper, we improve upon previous initialization methods by deriving an initialization that has stable variance across layers, and applies to any activation function. We show that this generalizes many previous initialization methods, and has even better stability for well studied activations. We also show that our initialization leads to improved results with INR activation functions in multiple signal modalities. Our approach is particularly effective for Gaussian INRs, where we demonstrate that the theory of our initialization matches with task performance in multiple experiments, allowing us to achieve improvements in image, audio, and 3D surface reconstruction.

We propose an evolution strategies-based algorithm for estimating gradients in unrolled computation graphs, called ES-Single. Similarly to the recently-proposed Persistent Evolution Strategies (PES), ES-Single is unbiased, and overcomes chaos arising from recursive function applications by smoothing the meta-loss landscape. ES-Single samples a single perturbation per particle, that is kept fixed over the course of an inner problem (e.g., perturbations are not re-sampled for each partial unroll). Compared to PES, ES-Single is simpler to implement and has lower variance: the variance of ES-Single is constant with respect to the number of truncated unrolls, removing a key barrier in applying ES to long inner problems using short truncations. We show that ES-Single is unbiased for quadratic inner problems, and demonstrate empirically that its variance can be substantially lower than that of PES. ES-Single consistently outperforms PES on a variety of tasks, including a synthetic benchmark task, hyperparameter optimization, training recurrent neural networks, and training learned optimizers.

Due to privacy, storage, and other constraints, there is a growing need for unsupervised domain adaptation techniques in machine learning that do not require access to the data used to train a collection of source models. Existing methods for multi-source-free domain adaptation (MSFDA) typically train a target model using pseudo-labeled data produced by the source models, which focus on improving the pseudo-labeling techniques or proposing new training objectives. Instead, we aim to analyze the fundamental limits of MSFDA. In particular, we develop an information-theoretic bound on the generalization error of the resulting target model, which illustrates an inherent bias-variance trade-off. We then provide insights on how to balance this trade-off from three perspectives, including domain aggregation, selective pseudo-labeling, and joint feature alignment, which leads to the design of novel algorithms. Experiments on multiple datasets validate our theoretical analysis and demonstrate the state-of-art performance of the proposed algorithm, especially on some of the most challenging datasets, including Office-Home and DomainNet.

Recent self-supervised methods for image representation learning are based on maximizing the agreement between embedding vectors from different views of the same image. A trivial solution is obtained when the encoder outputs constant vectors. This collapse problem is often avoided through implicit biases in the learning architecture, that often lack a clear justification or interpretation. In this paper, we introduce VICReg (Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization), a method that explicitly avoids the collapse problem with a simple regularization term on the variance of the embeddings along each dimension individually. VICReg combines the variance term with a decorrelation mechanism based on redundancy reduction and covariance regularization, and achieves results on par with the state of the art on several downstream tasks. In addition, we show that incorporating our new variance term into other methods helps stabilize the training and leads to performance improvements.

Matrix-based preconditioned optimizers, such as Muon, have recently been shown to be more efficient than scalar-based optimizers for training large-scale neural networks, including large language models (LLMs). On the other hand, recent benchmarks on optimizers for LLM pre-training have demonstrated that variance-reduction techniques such as MARS can achieve substantial speedups over standard optimizers that do not employ variance reduction. In this paper, to achieve the best of both worlds, we introduce MARS-M, a new optimizer that integrates the variance reduction technique in MARS with Muon. Under standard regularity conditions, we prove that Muon-M converges to a first-order stationary point at a rate of mathcal{O}(T^{-1/3}), which improves upon mathcal{O}(T^{-1/4}) rate attained by Muon. Our empirical results on language modeling and computer vision tasks demonstrate that MARS-M consistently yields lower losses and improved performance across various downstream benchmarks. The implementation of MARS-M is available at https://github.com/AGI-Arena/MARS/MARS_M.

Distribution matching is central to many vision and graphics tasks, where the widely used Wasserstein distance is too costly to compute for high dimensional distributions. The Sliced Wasserstein Distance (SWD) offers a scalable alternative, yet its Monte Carlo estimator suffers from high variance, resulting in noisy gradients and slow convergence. We introduce Reservoir SWD (ReSWD), which integrates Weighted Reservoir Sampling into SWD to adaptively retain informative projection directions in optimization steps, resulting in stable gradients while remaining unbiased. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and real-world tasks such as color correction and diffusion guidance show that ReSWD consistently outperforms standard SWD and other variance reduction baselines. Project page: https://reservoirswd.github.io/

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) is a generalization of traditional Reinforcement Learning (RL) that aims to optimize multiple, often conflicting objectives simultaneously rather than focusing on a single reward. This approach is crucial in complex decision-making scenarios where agents must balance trade-offs between various goals, such as maximizing performance while minimizing costs. We consider the problem of MORL where the objectives are combined using a non-linear scalarization function. Just like in standard RL, policy gradient methods (PGMs) are amongst the most effective for handling large and continuous state-action spaces in MORL. However, existing PGMs for MORL suffer from high sample inefficiency, requiring large amounts of data to be effective. Previous attempts to solve this problem rely on overly strict assumptions, losing PGMs' benefits in scalability to large state-action spaces. In this work, we address the issue of sample efficiency by implementing variance-reduction techniques to reduce the sample complexity of policy gradients while maintaining general assumptions.

Post-training plays a crucial role in refining and aligning large language models to meet specific tasks and human preferences. While recent advancements in post-training techniques, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), leverage increased sampling with relative reward scoring to achieve superior performance, these methods often suffer from training instability that limits their practical adoption. To address this challenge, we present Group Variance Policy Optimization (GVPO). GVPO incorporates the analytical solution to KL-constrained reward maximization directly into its gradient weights, ensuring alignment with the optimal policy. The method provides intuitive physical interpretations: its gradient mirrors the mean squared error between the central distance of implicit rewards and that of actual rewards. GVPO offers two key advantages: (1) it guarantees a unique optimal solution, exactly the KL-constrained reward maximization objective, (2) it supports flexible sampling distributions that avoids on-policy and importance sampling limitations. By unifying theoretical guarantees with practical adaptability, GVPO establishes a new paradigm for reliable and versatile LLM post-training.

Dueling bandits is a prominent framework for decision-making involving preferential feedback, a valuable feature that fits various applications involving human interaction, such as ranking, information retrieval, and recommendation systems. While substantial efforts have been made to minimize the cumulative regret in dueling bandits, a notable gap in the current research is the absence of regret bounds that account for the inherent uncertainty in pairwise comparisons between the dueling arms. Intuitively, greater uncertainty suggests a higher level of difficulty in the problem. To bridge this gap, this paper studies the problem of contextual dueling bandits, where the binary comparison of dueling arms is generated from a generalized linear model (GLM). We propose a new SupLinUCB-type algorithm that enjoys computational efficiency and a variance-aware regret bound tilde Obig(dsum_{t=1^Tsigma_t^2} + dbig), where sigma_t is the variance of the pairwise comparison in round t, d is the dimension of the context vectors, and T is the time horizon. Our regret bound naturally aligns with the intuitive expectation in scenarios where the comparison is deterministic, the algorithm only suffers from an tilde O(d) regret. We perform empirical experiments on synthetic data to confirm the advantage of our method over previous variance-agnostic algorithms.

Nonconvex optimization is central in solving many machine learning problems, in which block-wise structure is commonly encountered. In this work, we propose cyclic block coordinate methods for nonconvex optimization problems with non-asymptotic gradient norm guarantees. Our convergence analysis is based on a gradient Lipschitz condition with respect to a Mahalanobis norm, inspired by a recent progress on cyclic block coordinate methods. In deterministic settings, our convergence guarantee matches the guarantee of (full-gradient) gradient descent, but with the gradient Lipschitz constant being defined w.r.t.~a Mahalanobis norm. In stochastic settings, we use recursive variance reduction to decrease the per-iteration cost and match the arithmetic operation complexity of current optimal stochastic full-gradient methods, with a unified analysis for both finite-sum and infinite-sum cases. We prove a faster linear convergence result when a Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz (P{\L}) condition holds. To our knowledge, this work is the first to provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees -- variance-reduced or not -- for a cyclic block coordinate method in general composite (smooth + nonsmooth) nonconvex settings. Our experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed cyclic scheme in training deep neural nets.

Extreme low-bit quantization is critical for efficiently deploying Large Language Models (LLMs), yet it often leads to severe performance degradation at 2-bits and even 4-bits (e.g., MXFP4). We present SignRoundV2, a post-training quantization framework that is highly effective even without mixed-precision. SignRoundV2 introduces (1) a fast sensitivity metric that combines gradient information with quantization-induced deviations to guide layer-wise bit allocation, and (2) a lightweight pre-tuning search for quantization scales to improve extremely low-bit quantization. These components allow SignRoundV2 to close the gap with full-precision models. Extensive experiments indicate that our method sustains competitive accuracy for LLMs, achieving production-grade performance with about 1 percent variance at 4-5 bits and strong results even at 2 bits. The implementation is available at https://github.com/intel/auto-round.

Benchmarks shape scientific conclusions about model capabilities and steer model development. This creates a feedback loop: stronger benchmarks drive better models, and better models demand more discriminative benchmarks. Ensuring benchmark reliability is therefore essential for trustworthy evaluation and meaningful progress. In this work, we study benchmark reliability from a distributional perspective and introduce benchmark harmony, which measures how uniformly a model's performance is distributed across the subdomains of a benchmark. We posit that high harmony is a desirable benchmark property, indicating that the aggregate metric reflects uniform competence across subdomains. Across 19 multiple-choice benchmarks and five model families, we map each benchmark onto a mean-variance plane of harmony computed across models, where high mean and low variance signal more reliable evaluation. Our analysis shows that less harmonious benchmarks can give misleading results, since overall accuracy may be disproportionately influenced by specific subdomains. For instance, ARC-Easy is overwhelmed by questions on Biological Concepts, overshadowing other critical subdomains such as Geography, Physics, Chemistry, and Environmental Science. By recommending that harmony should be reported alongside accuracy, we reframe evaluation from simple performance averages to a more robust, distributionally reliable measurement of performance.

Large language models achieve high performance on many but not all downstream tasks. The interaction between pretraining data and task data is commonly assumed to determine this variance: a task with data that is more similar to a model's pretraining data is assumed to be easier for that model. We test whether distributional and example-specific similarity measures (embedding-, token- and model-based) correlate with language model performance through a large-scale comparison of the Pile and C4 pretraining datasets with downstream benchmarks. Similarity correlates with performance for multilingual datasets, but in other benchmarks, we surprisingly find that similarity metrics are not correlated with accuracy or even each other. This suggests that the relationship between pretraining data and downstream tasks is more complex than often assumed.

We study Stochastic Gradient Descent with AdaGrad stepsizes: a popular adaptive (self-tuning) method for first-order stochastic optimization. Despite being well studied, existing analyses of this method suffer from various shortcomings: they either assume some knowledge of the problem parameters, impose strong global Lipschitz conditions, or fail to give bounds that hold with high probability. We provide a comprehensive analysis of this basic method without any of these limitations, in both the convex and non-convex (smooth) cases, that additionally supports a general ``affine variance'' noise model and provides sharp rates of convergence in both the low-noise and high-noise~regimes.

Decentralized training of deep neural networks has attracted significant attention for its theoretically superior scalability over synchronous data-parallel methods like All-Reduce. However, realizing this potential in multi-node training is challenging due to the complex design space that involves communication topologies, computation patterns, and optimization algorithms. This paper identifies three key factors that can lead to speedups over All-Reduce training and constructs a runtime model to determine when, how, and to what degree decentralization can yield shorter per-iteration runtimes. Furthermore, to support the decentralized training of transformer-based models, we study a decentralized Adam algorithm that allows for overlapping communications and computations, prove its convergence, and propose an accumulation technique to mitigate the high variance caused by small local batch sizes. We deploy the proposed approach in clusters with up to 64 GPUs and demonstrate its practicality and advantages in both runtime and generalization performance under a fixed iteration budget.

Policy-based reinforcement learning algorithms are widely used in various fields. Among them, mainstream policy optimization algorithms such as TRPO and PPO introduce importance sampling into policy iteration, which allows the reuse of historical data. However, this can also lead to a high variance of the surrogate objective and indirectly affects the stability and convergence of the algorithm. In this paper, we first derived an upper bound of the surrogate objective variance, which can grow quadratically with the increase of the surrogate objective. Next, we proposed the dropout technique to avoid the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance caused by importance sampling. Then, we introduced a general reinforcement learning framework applicable to mainstream policy optimization methods, and applied the dropout technique to the PPO algorithm to obtain the D-PPO variant. Finally, we conduct comparative experiments between D-PPO and PPO algorithms in the Atari 2600 environment, and the results show that D-PPO achieved significant performance improvements compared to PPO, and effectively limited the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance during training.

We consider the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with spectral risk-based uncertainty set and f-divergence penalty. This formulation includes common risk-sensitive learning objectives such as regularized condition value-at-risk (CVaR) and average top-k loss. We present Prospect, a stochastic gradient-based algorithm that only requires tuning a single learning rate hyperparameter, and prove that it enjoys linear convergence for smooth regularized losses. This contrasts with previous algorithms that either require tuning multiple hyperparameters or potentially fail to converge due to biased gradient estimates or inadequate regularization. Empirically, we show that Prospect can converge 2-3times faster than baselines such as stochastic gradient and stochastic saddle-point methods on distribution shift and fairness benchmarks spanning tabular, vision, and language domains.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) learn invertible mappings between the data and a Gaussian distribution. Prior works usually suffer from two limitations. First, they add random noise to training samples or VAE latents as data augmentation, introducing complex pipelines including extra noising and denoising steps. Second, they use a pretrained and frozen VAE encoder, resulting in suboptimal reconstruction and generation quality. In this paper, we find that the two issues can be solved in a very simple way: just fixing the variance (which would otherwise be predicted by the VAE encoder) to a constant (e.g., 0.5). On the one hand, this method allows the encoder to output a broader distribution of tokens and the decoder to learn to reconstruct clean images from the augmented token distribution, avoiding additional noise or denoising design. On the other hand, fixed variance simplifies the VAE evidence lower bound, making it stable to train an NF with a VAE jointly. On the ImageNet 256 times 256 generation task, our model SimFlow obtains a gFID score of 2.15, outperforming the state-of-the-art method STARFlow (gFID 2.40). Moreover, SimFlow can be seamlessly integrated with the end-to-end representation alignment (REPA-E) method and achieves an improved gFID of 1.91, setting a new state of the art among NFs.

Reasoning has emerged as the next major frontier for language models (LMs), with rapid advances from both academic and industrial labs. However, this progress often outpaces methodological rigor, with many evaluations relying on benchmarking practices that lack transparency, robustness, or statistical grounding. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study and find that current mathematical reasoning benchmarks are highly sensitive to subtle implementation choices - including decoding parameters, random seeds, prompt formatting, and even hardware and software-framework configurations. Performance gains reported in recent studies frequently hinge on unclear comparisons or unreported sources of variance. To address these issues, we propose a standardized evaluation framework with clearly defined best practices and reporting standards. Using this framework, we reassess recent methods and find that reinforcement learning (RL) approaches yield only modest improvements - far below prior claims - and are prone to overfitting, especially on small-scale benchmarks like AIME24. In contrast, supervised finetuning (SFT) methods show consistently stronger generalization. To foster reproducibility, we release all code, prompts, and model outputs, for reasoning benchmarks, establishing more rigorous foundations for future work.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown to be capable of various tasks, yet their capability in interpreting and reasoning over tabular data remains an underexplored area. In this context, this study investigates from three core perspectives: the robustness of LLMs to structural perturbations in tables, the comparative analysis of textual and symbolic reasoning on tables, and the potential of boosting model performance through the aggregation of multiple reasoning pathways. We discover that structural variance of tables presenting the same content reveals a notable performance decline, particularly in symbolic reasoning tasks. This prompts the proposal of a method for table structure normalization. Moreover, textual reasoning slightly edges out symbolic reasoning, and a detailed error analysis reveals that each exhibits different strengths depending on the specific tasks. Notably, the aggregation of textual and symbolic reasoning pathways, bolstered by a mix self-consistency mechanism, resulted in achieving SOTA performance, with an accuracy of 73.6% on WIKITABLEQUESTIONS, representing a substantial advancement over previous existing table processing paradigms of LLMs.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely used tool for assessing cardiac function due to its low cost and accessibility. Emergent research shows that ECGs can help make predictions on key outcomes traditionally derived from more complex modalities such as echocardiograms (ECHO), enabling the use of ECGs as a more accessible method to predict broader measurements of cardiac function. ECHO, in particular, are of great importance because they require considerable hospital resources while playing a key role in clinical cardiac assessment. To aid this use case, we introduce EchoingECG, a probabilistic student-teacher model that leverages uncertainty-aware ECG embeddings and ECHO supervision to improve ECG-based cardiac function prediction. Our approach integrates Probabilistic Cross-Modal Embeddings (PCME++), a probabilistic contrastive framework, with ECHO-CLIP, a vision-language pre-trained model trained on ECHO-text pairs, to distill ECHO knowledge into ECG representations. Through experiments and external validation, we showed that EchoingECG outperforms state-of-the-art foundation ECG models in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tune settings for ECHO predictions based on ECG. We also highlighted that variance estimation (enabled through our method) enhanced our understanding of model performance by identifying underlying regions of uncertainty within ECGs. The code is available: https://github.com/mcintoshML/EchoingECG.

Decoder-only Transformers often struggle with complex reasoning tasks, particularly arithmetic reasoning requiring multiple sequential operations. In this work, we identify representation collapse in the model's intermediate layers as a key factor limiting their reasoning capabilities. To address this, we propose Sequential Variance-Covariance Regularization (Seq-VCR), which enhances the entropy of intermediate representations and prevents collapse. Combined with dummy pause tokens as substitutes for chain-of-thought (CoT) tokens, our method significantly improves performance in arithmetic reasoning problems. In the challenging 5 times 5 integer multiplication task, our approach achieves 99.5% exact match accuracy, outperforming models of the same size (which yield 0% accuracy) and GPT-4 with five-shot CoT prompting (44%). We also demonstrate superior results on arithmetic expression and longest increasing subsequence (LIS) datasets. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing intermediate layer representation collapse to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Transformers and show that Seq-VCR offers an effective solution without requiring explicit CoT supervision.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a key technique for aligning the output of large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. To learn the reward function, most existing RLHF algorithms use the Bradley-Terry model, which relies on assumptions about human preferences that may not reflect the complexity and variability of real-world judgments. In this paper, we propose a robust algorithm to enhance the performance of existing approaches under such reward model misspecifications. Theoretically, our algorithm reduces the variance of reward and policy estimators, leading to improved regret bounds. Empirical evaluations on LLM benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms existing methods, with 77-81% of responses being favored over baselines on the Anthropic Helpful and Harmless dataset. The code is available at https:// github.com/ VRPO/ VRPO.

Recent large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and LLaMA have shown great promise in many AI applications. However, their performance on medical tasks is suboptimal and can be improved by training on extensive domain-specific datasets. This study introduces Me LLaMA, a medical LLM family that includes foundation models - Me LLaMA 13/70B, along with their chat-enhanced versions - Me LLaMA 13/70B-chat, developed through continual pre-training and instruction tuning of LLaMA2 using large medical datasets. Our domain-specific data suite for training and evaluation includes a large-scale, continual pre-training dataset with 129B tokens, an instruction tuning dataset with 214k samples, and a new medical evaluation benchmark (MIBE) across six tasks with 12 datasets. Our extensive evaluation using the MIBE shows that Me LLaMA models achieve overall better performance than existing open-source medical LLMs in zero-shot, few-shot and supervised learning abilities. Their zero-shot performance is comparable with ChatGPT across 7 out of 8 datasets, with a slight variance of within 3%, and yet falls short when compared to GPT-4. In addition, we investigated the catastrophic forgetting problem, and our results show that Me LLaMA models outperform other open-source medical LLMs in mitigating this issue. Me LLaMA is one of the largest open-source medical foundation LLMs that use both biomedical and clinical data. It exhibits superior performance across both general and medical tasks compared to other open-source medical LLMs, rendering it an attractive choice for medical AI applications. We release our models, datasets, and evaluation scripts at: https://github.com/BIDS-Xu-Lab/Me-LLaMA.

Large language models (LLMs) can sometimes report the strategies they actually use to solve tasks, but they can also fail to do so. This suggests some degree of metacognition -- the capacity to monitor one's own cognitive processes for subsequent reporting and self-control. Metacognitive abilities enhance AI capabilities but raise safety concerns, as models might obscure their internal processes to evade neural-activation-based oversight mechanisms designed to detect harmful behaviors. Given society's increased reliance on these models, it is critical that we understand the limits of their metacognitive abilities, particularly their ability to monitor their internal activations. To address this, we introduce a neuroscience-inspired neurofeedback paradigm designed to quantify the ability of LLMs to explicitly report and control their activation patterns. By presenting models with sentence-label pairs where labels correspond to sentence-elicited internal activations along specific directions in the neural representation space, we demonstrate that LLMs can learn to report and control these activations. The performance varies with several factors: the number of example pairs provided, the semantic interpretability of the target neural direction, and the variance explained by that direction. These results reveal a "metacognitive space" with dimensionality much lower than the model's neural space, suggesting LLMs can monitor only a subset of their neural mechanisms. Our findings provide empirical evidence quantifying metacognitive capabilities in LLMs, with significant implications for AI safety.

Sparsely Mixture of Experts (MoE) has received great interest due to its promising scaling capability with affordable computational overhead. MoE converts dense layers into sparse experts, and utilizes a gated routing network to make experts conditionally activated. However, as the number of experts grows, MoE with outrageous parameters suffers from overfitting and sparse data allocation. Such problems are especially severe on tasks with limited data, thus hindering the progress for MoE models to improve performance by scaling up. In this work, we propose Mixture of Expert Clusters - a general approach to enable expert layers to learn more diverse and appropriate knowledge by imposing variance-based constraints on the routing stage. We further propose a cluster-level expert dropout strategy specifically designed for the expert cluster structure. Our experiments reveal that MoEC could improve performance on machine translation and natural language understanding tasks, and raise the performance upper bound for scaling up experts under limited data. We also verify that MoEC plays a positive role in mitigating overfitting and sparse data allocation.

Inverse problems aim to determine parameters from observations, a crucial task in engineering and science. Lately, generative models, especially diffusion models, have gained popularity in this area for their ability to produce realistic solutions and their good mathematical properties. Despite their success, an important drawback of diffusion models is their sensitivity to the choice of variance schedule, which controls the dynamics of the diffusion process. Fine-tuning this schedule for specific applications is crucial but time-costly and does not guarantee an optimal result. We propose a novel approach for learning the schedule as part of the training process. Our method supports probabilistic conditioning on data, provides high-quality solutions, and is flexible, proving able to adapt to different applications with minimum overhead. This approach is tested in two unrelated inverse problems: super-resolution microscopy and quantitative phase imaging, yielding comparable or superior results to previous methods and fine-tuned diffusion models. We conclude that fine-tuning the schedule by experimentation should be avoided because it can be learned during training in a stable way that yields better results.

Fine-tuning pretrained contextual word embedding models to supervised downstream tasks has become commonplace in natural language processing. This process, however, is often brittle: even with the same hyperparameter values, distinct random seeds can lead to substantially different results. To better understand this phenomenon, we experiment with four datasets from the GLUE benchmark, fine-tuning BERT hundreds of times on each while varying only the random seeds. We find substantial performance increases compared to previously reported results, and we quantify how the performance of the best-found model varies as a function of the number of fine-tuning trials. Further, we examine two factors influenced by the choice of random seed: weight initialization and training data order. We find that both contribute comparably to the variance of out-of-sample performance, and that some weight initializations perform well across all tasks explored. On small datasets, we observe that many fine-tuning trials diverge part of the way through training, and we offer best practices for practitioners to stop training less promising runs early. We publicly release all of our experimental data, including training and validation scores for 2,100 trials, to encourage further analysis of training dynamics during fine-tuning.

Stateful optimizers maintain gradient statistics over time, e.g., the exponentially smoothed sum (SGD with momentum) or squared sum (Adam) of past gradient values. This state can be used to accelerate optimization compared to plain stochastic gradient descent but uses memory that might otherwise be allocated to model parameters, thereby limiting the maximum size of models trained in practice. In this paper, we develop the first optimizers that use 8-bit statistics while maintaining the performance levels of using 32-bit optimizer states. To overcome the resulting computational, quantization, and stability challenges, we develop block-wise dynamic quantization. Block-wise quantization divides input tensors into smaller blocks that are independently quantized. Each block is processed in parallel across cores, yielding faster optimization and high precision quantization. To maintain stability and performance, we combine block-wise quantization with two additional changes: (1) dynamic quantization, a form of non-linear optimization that is precise for both large and small magnitude values, and (2) a stable embedding layer to reduce gradient variance that comes from the highly non-uniform distribution of input tokens in language models. As a result, our 8-bit optimizers maintain 32-bit performance with a small fraction of the memory footprint on a range of tasks, including 1.5B parameter language modeling, GLUE finetuning, ImageNet classification, WMT'14 machine translation, MoCo v2 contrastive ImageNet pretraining+finetuning, and RoBERTa pretraining, without changes to the original optimizer hyperparameters. We open-source our 8-bit optimizers as a drop-in replacement that only requires a two-line code change.

A range of recent optimizers have emerged that approximate the same "matrix-whitening" transformation in various ways. In this work, we systematically deconstruct such optimizers, aiming to disentangle the key components that explain performance. Across tuned hyperparameters across the board, all flavors of matrix-whitening methods reliably outperform elementwise counterparts, such as Adam. Matrix-whitening is often related to spectral descent -- however, experiments reveal that performance gains are *not explained solely by accurate spectral normalization* -- particularly, SOAP displays the largest per-step gain, even though Muon more accurately descends along the steepest spectral descent direction. Instead, we argue that matrix-whitening serves two purposes, and the variance adaptation component of matrix-whitening is the overlooked ingredient explaining this performance gap. Experiments show that variance-adapted versions of optimizers consistently outperform their sign-descent counterparts, including an adaptive version of Muon. We further ablate variance adaptation strategies, finding that while lookahead style approximations are not as effective, low-rank variance estimators can effectively reduce memory costs without a performance loss.

Most offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms return a target policy maximizing a trade-off between (1) the expected performance gain over the behavior policy that collected the dataset, and (2) the risk stemming from the out-of-distribution-ness of the induced state-action occupancy. It follows that the performance of the target policy is strongly related to the performance of the behavior policy and, thus, the trajectory return distribution of the dataset. We show that in mixed datasets consisting of mostly low-return trajectories and minor high-return trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms are overly restrained by low-return trajectories and fail to exploit high-performing trajectories to the fullest. To overcome this issue, we show that, in deterministic MDPs with stochastic initial states, the dataset sampling can be re-weighted to induce an artificial dataset whose behavior policy has a higher return. This re-weighted sampling strategy may be combined with any offline RL algorithm. We further analyze that the opportunity for performance improvement over the behavior policy correlates with the positive-sided variance of the returns of the trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that while CQL, IQL, and TD3+BC achieve only a part of this potential policy improvement, these same algorithms combined with our reweighted sampling strategy fully exploit the dataset. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that, despite its theoretical limitation, the approach may still be efficient in stochastic environments. The code is available at https://github.com/Improbable-AI/harness-offline-rl.

Complex Reasoning in Large Language Models can be dynamically optimized using Test-Time Scaling (TTS) to mitigate Overthinking. Methods such as Coconut, SoftCoT and its variant are effective in continuous latent space inference, the core bottleneck still lies in the efficient generation and utilization of high-quality Latent Thought. Drawing from the theory of SoftCoT++ that a larger variance in the generated Latent Thought distribution more closely approximates the golden truth distribution, we propose a Latent Thought-Augmented Training Framework--LTA-Thinker, which improves distributional variance and enhances reasoning performance from two perspectives. First, LTA-Thinker constructs a Latent Thought generation architecture based on a learnable prior. This architecture aims to increase the variance distribution of generated Latent Thought Vectors in order to simplify the overall structure and raise the performance ceiling. Second, LTA-Thinker introduces a distribution-based directional optimization paradigm that jointly constrains both distribution locality and distribution scale. This mechanism improves information efficiency and computational cost through a multi-objective co-training strategy, which combines standard Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) loss with two novel losses: Semantic Alignment Loss, which utilizes KL divergence to ensure that the Latent Thought is highly relevant to the semantics of the question; Reasoning Focus Loss, which utilizes a contrastive learning mechanism to guide the model to focus on the most critical reasoning steps. Experiments show that LTA-thinker achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance among various baselines and demonstrates a higher performance ceiling and better scaling effects.

While tokenization is a key step in language modeling, with effects on model training and performance, it remains unclear how to effectively evaluate tokenizer quality. One proposed dimension of tokenizer quality is the extent to which tokenizers preserve linguistically meaningful subwords, aligning token boundaries with morphological boundaries within a word. We expand MorphScore (Arnett & Bergen, 2025), which previously covered 22 languages, to support a total of 70 languages. The updated MorphScore offers more flexibility in evaluation and addresses some of the limitations of the original version. We then correlate our alignment scores with downstream task performance for five pre-trained languages models on seven tasks, with at least one task in each of the languages in our sample. We find that morphological alignment does not explain very much variance in model performance, suggesting that morphological alignment alone does not measure dimensions of tokenization quality relevant to model performance.

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a novel scaling effect: longer outputs significantly enhance model accuracy due to delayed chain-of-thought reasoning in our non-causal approach. YingLong is a non-causal, bidirectional attention encoder-only transformer trained through masked token recovery, aligning more effectively with language understanding tasks than with generation tasks. Additionally, we boost performance by tackling output variance with a multi-input ensemble. We release four foundation models ranging from 6M to 300M parameters, demonstrating superior results in zero-shot tasks on the ETT and Weather datasets. YingLong achieves more than 60% best performance. To ensure generalizability, we assessed the models using the GIFT-Eval benchmark, which comprises 23 time series datasets across 7 domains. Yinglong significantly outperformed the best time-series foundation models, end-to-end trained models by 14% and 44% in rank respectively.The pretrained 300M model is available at https://huggingface.co/qcw1314/YingLong_300m

Input space reconstruction is an attractive representation learning paradigm. Despite interpretability of the reconstruction and generation, we identify a misalignment between learning by reconstruction, and learning for perception. We show that the former allocates a model's capacity towards a subspace of the data explaining the observed variance--a subspace with uninformative features for the latter. For example, the supervised TinyImagenet task with images projected onto the top subspace explaining 90\% of the pixel variance can be solved with 45\% test accuracy. Using the bottom subspace instead, accounting for only 20\% of the pixel variance, reaches 55\% test accuracy. The features for perception being learned last explains the need for long training time, e.g., with Masked Autoencoders. Learning by denoising is a popular strategy to alleviate that misalignment. We prove that while some noise strategies such as masking are indeed beneficial, others such as additive Gaussian noise are not. Yet, even in the case of masking, we find that the benefits vary as a function of the mask's shape, ratio, and the considered dataset. While tuning the noise strategy without knowledge of the perception task seems challenging, we provide first clues on how to detect if a noise strategy is never beneficial regardless of the perception task.

The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is a seminal approach in deep generative modeling with latent variables. Interpreting its reconstruction process as a nonlinear transformation of samples from the latent posterior distribution, we apply the Unscented Transform (UT) -- a well-known distribution approximation used in the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) from the field of filtering. A finite set of statistics called sigma points, sampled deterministically, provides a more informative and lower-variance posterior representation than the ubiquitous noise-scaling of the reparameterization trick, while ensuring higher-quality reconstruction. We further boost the performance by replacing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with the Wasserstein distribution metric that allows for a sharper posterior. Inspired by the two components, we derive a novel, deterministic-sampling flavor of the VAE, the Unscented Autoencoder (UAE), trained purely with regularization-like terms on the per-sample posterior. We empirically show competitive performance in Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) scores over closely-related models, in addition to a lower training variance than the VAE.

Stock price prediction is a challenging task and a lot of propositions exist in the literature in this area. Portfolio construction is a process of choosing a group of stocks and investing in them optimally to maximize the return while minimizing the risk. Since the time when Markowitz proposed the Modern Portfolio Theory, several advancements have happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. An investor can get the best benefit out of the stock market if the investor invests in an efficient portfolio and could take the buy or sell decision in advance, by estimating the future asset value of the portfolio with a high level of precision. In this project, we have built an efficient portfolio and to predict the future asset value by means of individual stock price prediction of the stocks in the portfolio. As part of building an efficient portfolio we have studied multiple portfolio optimization methods beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built the minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the five chosen sectors by using past daily stock prices over the past five years as the training data, and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. A comparative study of minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio with equal weight portfolio is done by backtesting.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

With the success of deep neural networks, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) as a way of automatic model design has attracted wide attention. As training every child model from scratch is very time-consuming, recent works leverage weight-sharing to speed up the model evaluation procedure. These approaches greatly reduce computation by maintaining a single copy of weights on the super-net and share the weights among every child model. However, weight-sharing has no theoretical guarantee and its impact has not been well studied before. In this paper, we conduct comprehensive experiments to reveal the impact of weight-sharing: (1) The best-performing models from different runs or even from consecutive epochs within the same run have significant variance; (2) Even with high variance, we can extract valuable information from training the super-net with shared weights; (3) The interference between child models is a main factor that induces high variance; (4) Properly reducing the degree of weight sharing could effectively reduce variance and improve performance.

Current evaluations of large language models (LLMs) often overlook non-determinism, typically focusing on a single output per example. This limits our understanding of LLM performance variability in real-world applications. Our study addresses this issue by exploring key questions about the performance differences between greedy decoding and sampling, identifying benchmarks' consistency regarding non-determinism, and examining unique model behaviors. Through extensive experiments, we observe that greedy decoding generally outperforms sampling methods for most evaluated tasks. We also observe consistent performance across different LLM sizes and alignment methods, noting that alignment can reduce sampling variance. Moreover, our best-of-N sampling approach demonstrates that smaller LLMs can match or surpass larger models such as GPT-4-Turbo, highlighting the untapped potential of smaller LLMs. This research shows the importance of considering non-determinism in LLM evaluations and provides insights for future LLM development and evaluation.

We introduce the Efficient Monotonic Multihead Attention (EMMA), a state-of-the-art simultaneous translation model with numerically-stable and unbiased monotonic alignment estimation. In addition, we present improved training and inference strategies, including simultaneous fine-tuning from an offline translation model and reduction of monotonic alignment variance. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model attains state-of-the-art performance in simultaneous speech-to-text translation on the Spanish and English translation task.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has shown impressive capability in providing reliable answer predictions and addressing hallucination problems. A typical RAG implementation uses powerful retrieval models to extract external information and large language models (LLMs) to generate answers. In contrast, recent LLM-based retrieval has gained attention for its substantial improvements in information retrieval (IR) due to the LLMs' semantic understanding capability. However, directly applying LLM to RAG systems presents challenges. This may cause feature locality problems as massive parametric knowledge can hinder effective usage of global information across the corpus; for example, an LLM-based retriever often inputs document summaries instead of full documents. Moreover, various pre-trained tasks in LLMs introduce variance, further weakening performance as a retriever. To address these issues, we propose a novel two-stage fine-tuning architecture called Invar-RAG. In the retrieval stage, an LLM-based retriever is constructed by integrating LoRA-based representation learning to tackle feature locality issues. To enhance retrieval performance, we develop two patterns (invariant and variant patterns) and an invariance loss to reduce LLM variance. In the generation stage, a refined fine-tuning method is employed to improve LLM accuracy in generating answers based on retrieved information. Experimental results show that Invar-RAG significantly outperforms existing baselines across three open-domain question answering (ODQA) datasets. Code is available in the Supplementary Material for reproducibility.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled agents to perform complex reasoning and decision-making through free-form language interactions. However, in open-ended language action environments (e.g., negotiation or question-asking games), the action space can be formulated as a joint distribution over tokens, resulting in an exponentially large action space. Sampling actions in such a space can lead to extreme reward sparsity, which brings large reward variance, hindering effective reinforcement learning (RL). To address this, we propose ARIA, a method that Aggregates Rewards in Intention space to enable efficient and effective language Agents training. ARIA aims to project natural language actions from the high-dimensional joint token distribution space into a low-dimensional intention space, where semantically similar actions are clustered and assigned shared rewards. This intention-aware reward aggregation reduces reward variance by densifying reward signals, fostering better policy optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ARIA not only significantly reduces policy gradient variance, but also delivers substantial performance gains of an average of 9.95% across four downstream tasks, consistently outperforming offline and online RL baselines.

Activation functions are fundamental elements of deep learning architectures as they significantly influence training dynamics. ReLU, while widely used, is prone to the dying neuron problem, which has been mitigated by variants such as LeakyReLU, PReLU, and ELU that better handle negative neuron outputs. Recently, self-gated activations like GELU and Swish have emerged as state-of-the-art alternatives, leveraging their smoothness to ensure stable gradient flow and prevent neuron inactivity. In this work, we introduce the Gompertz Linear Unit (GoLU), a novel self-gated activation function defined as GoLU(x) = x , Gompertz(x), where Gompertz(x) = e^{-e^{-x}}. The GoLU activation leverages the asymmetry in the Gompertz function to reduce variance in the latent space more effectively compared to GELU and Swish, while preserving robust gradient flow. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks, including Image Classification, Language Modeling, Semantic Segmentation, Object Detection, Instance Segmentation, and Diffusion, highlight GoLU's superior performance relative to state-of-the-art activation functions, establishing GoLU as a robust alternative to existing activation functions.

Static word embeddings are ubiquitous in computational social science applications and contribute to practical decision-making in a variety of fields including law and healthcare. However, assessing the statistical uncertainty in downstream conclusions drawn from word embedding statistics has remained challenging. When using only point estimates for embeddings, researchers have no streamlined way of assessing the degree to which their model selection criteria or scientific conclusions are subject to noise due to sparsity in the underlying data used to generate the embeddings. We introduce a method to obtain approximate, easy-to-use, and scalable reconstruction error variance estimates for GloVe (Pennington et al., 2014), one of the most widely used word embedding models, using an analytical approximation to a multivariate normal model. To demonstrate the value of embeddings with variance (GloVe-V), we illustrate how our approach enables principled hypothesis testing in core word embedding tasks, such as comparing the similarity between different word pairs in vector space, assessing the performance of different models, and analyzing the relative degree of ethnic or gender bias in a corpus using different word lists.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

We first propose a decentralized proximal stochastic gradient tracking method (DProxSGT) for nonconvex stochastic composite problems, with data heterogeneously distributed on multiple workers in a decentralized connected network. To save communication cost, we then extend DProxSGT to a compressed method by compressing the communicated information. Both methods need only O(1) samples per worker for each proximal update, which is important to achieve good generalization performance on training deep neural networks. With a smoothness condition on the expected loss function (but not on each sample function), the proposed methods can achieve an optimal sample complexity result to produce a near-stationary point. Numerical experiments on training neural networks demonstrate the significantly better generalization performance of our methods over large-batch training methods and momentum variance-reduction methods and also, the ability of handling heterogeneous data by the gradient tracking scheme.

Deploying deep neural networks on low-resource edge devices is challenging due to their ever-increasing resource requirements. Recent investigations propose multiplication-free neural networks to reduce computation and memory consumption. Shift neural network is one of the most effective tools towards these reductions. However, existing low-bit shift networks are not as accurate as their full precision counterparts and cannot efficiently transfer to a wide range of tasks due to their inherent design flaws. We propose DenseShift network that exploits the following novel designs. First, we demonstrate that the zero-weight values in low-bit shift networks are neither useful to the model capacity nor simplify the model inference. Therefore, we propose to use a zero-free shifting mechanism to simplify inference while increasing the model capacity. Second, we design a new metric to measure the weight freezing issue in training low-bit shift networks, and propose a sign-scale decomposition to improve the training efficiency. Third, we propose the low-variance random initialization strategy to improve the model's performance in transfer learning scenarios. We run extensive experiments on various computer vision and speech tasks. The experimental results show that DenseShift network significantly outperforms existing low-bit multiplication-free networks and can achieve competitive performance to the full-precision counterpart. It also exhibits strong transfer learning performance with no drop in accuracy.

Event cameras are novel vision sensors that output pixel-level brightness changes ("events") instead of traditional video frames. These asynchronous sensors offer several advantages over traditional cameras, such as, high temporal resolution, very high dynamic range, and no motion blur. To unlock the potential of such sensors, motion compensation methods have been recently proposed. We present a collection and taxonomy of twenty two objective functions to analyze event alignment in motion compensation approaches (Fig. 1). We call them Focus Loss Functions since they have strong connections with functions used in traditional shape-from-focus applications. The proposed loss functions allow bringing mature computer vision tools to the realm of event cameras. We compare the accuracy and runtime performance of all loss functions on a publicly available dataset, and conclude that the variance, the gradient and the Laplacian magnitudes are among the best loss functions. The applicability of the loss functions is shown on multiple tasks: rotational motion, depth and optical flow estimation. The proposed focus loss functions allow to unlock the outstanding properties of event cameras.

Along with the recent development of deep neural networks, appearance-based gaze estimation has succeeded considerably when training and testing within the same domain. Compared to the within-domain task, the variance of different domains makes the cross-domain performance drop severely, preventing gaze estimation deployment in real-world applications. Among all the factors, ranges of head pose and gaze are believed to play a significant role in the final performance of gaze estimation, while collecting large ranges of data is expensive. This work proposes an effective model training pipeline consisting of a training data synthesis and a gaze estimation model for unsupervised domain adaptation. The proposed data synthesis leverages the single-image 3D reconstruction to expand the range of the head poses from the source domain without requiring a 3D facial shape dataset. To bridge the inevitable gap between synthetic and real images, we further propose an unsupervised domain adaptation method suitable for synthetic full-face data. We propose a disentangling autoencoder network to separate gaze-related features and introduce background augmentation consistency loss to utilize the characteristics of the synthetic source domain. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that the model only using monocular-reconstructed synthetic training data can perform comparably to real data with a large label range. Our proposed domain adaptation approach further improves the performance on multiple target domains. The code and data will be available at https://github.com/ut-vision/AdaptiveGaze.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly trained with reinforcement learning (RL) as autonomous agents that reason and act over long horizons in interactive environments. However, sparse and sometimes unverifiable rewards make temporal credit assignment extremely challenging. Recent work attempts to integrate process supervision into agent learning but suffers from biased annotation, reward hacking, high-variance from overly fine-grained signals or failtures when state overlap is rare. We therefore introduce Online Process Reward Learning (OPRL), a general credit-assignment strategy for agentic RL that integrates seamlessly with standard on-policy algorithms without relying on additional rollouts or explicit step labels. In OPRL, we optimize an implicit process reward model (PRM) alternately with the agent's policy to transform trajectory preferences into implicit step rewards through a trajectory-based DPO objective. These step rewards are then used to compute step-level advantages, which are combined with episode-level advantages from outcome rewards for policy update, creating a self-reinforcing loop. Theoretical findings guarantee that the learned step rewards are consistent with trajectory preferences and act as potential-based shaping rewards, providing bounded gradients to stabilize training. Empirically, we evaluate OPRL on three distinct agent benmarks, including WebShop and VisualSokoban, as well as open-ended social interactions with unverfiable rewards in SOTOPIA. Crucially, OPRL shows superior performance over frontier LLMs and strong RL baselines across domains, achieving state-of-the-art results with higher sample-efficiency and lower variance during training. Further analysis also demonstrates the efficient exploration by OPRL using fewer actions, underscoring its potential for agentic learning in real-world scenarios.

A generative adversarial network (GAN) has been a representative backbone model in generative artificial intelligence (AI) because of its powerful performance in capturing intricate data-generating processes. However, the GAN training is well-known for its notorious training instability, usually characterized by the occurrence of mode collapse. Through the lens of gradients' variance, this work particularly analyzes the training instability and inefficiency in the presence of mode collapse by linking it to multimodality in the target distribution. To ease the raised training issues from severe multimodality, we introduce a novel GAN training framework that leverages a series of tempered distributions produced via convex interpolation. With our newly developed GAN objective function, the generator can learn all the tempered distributions simultaneously, conceptually resonating with the parallel tempering in Statistics. Our simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our approach over existing popular training strategies in both image and tabular data synthesis. We theoretically analyze that such significant improvement can arise from reducing the variance of gradient estimates by using the tempered distributions. Finally, we further develop a variant of the proposed framework aimed at generating fair synthetic data which is one of the growing interests in the field of trustworthy AI.

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in parsing textual data and generating code. However, their performance in tasks involving tabular data, especially those requiring symbolic reasoning, faces challenges due to the structural variance and inconsistency in table cell values often found in web tables. In this paper, we introduce NormTab, a novel framework aimed at enhancing the symbolic reasoning performance of LLMs by normalizing web tables. We study table normalization as a stand-alone, one-time preprocessing step using LLMs to support symbolic reasoning on tabular data. Our experimental evaluation, conducted on challenging web table datasets such as WikiTableQuestion and TabFact, demonstrates that leveraging NormTab significantly improves symbolic reasoning performance, showcasing the importance and effectiveness of web table normalization for enhancing LLM-based symbolic reasoning tasks.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Instruction fine-tuning has recently emerged as a promising approach for improving the zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) on new tasks. This technique has shown particular strength in improving the performance of modestly sized LLMs, sometimes inducing performance competitive with much larger model variants. In this paper we ask two questions: (1) How sensitive are instruction-tuned models to the particular phrasings of instructions, and, (2) How can we make them more robust to such natural language variation? To answer the former, we collect a set of 319 instructions manually written by NLP practitioners for over 80 unique tasks included in widely used benchmarks, and we evaluate the variance and average performance of these instructions as compared to instruction phrasings observed during instruction fine-tuning. We find that using novel (unobserved) but appropriate instruction phrasings consistently degrades model performance, sometimes substantially so. Further, such natural instructions yield a wide variance in downstream performance, despite their semantic equivalence. Put another way, instruction-tuned models are not especially robust to instruction re-phrasings. We propose a simple method to mitigate this issue by introducing ``soft prompt'' embedding parameters and optimizing these to maximize the similarity between representations of semantically equivalent instructions. We show that this method consistently improves the robustness of instruction-tuned models.

Large language models have exhibited intriguing in-context learning capability, achieving promising zero- and few-shot performance without updating the parameters. However, conventional in-context learning is usually restricted by length constraints, rendering it ineffective to absorb supervision from a large number of examples. In order to go beyond few shots, we introduce structured prompting that breaks the length limit and scales in-context learning to thousands of examples. Specifically, demonstration examples are separately encoded with well-designed position embeddings, and then they are jointly attended by the test example using a rescaled attention mechanism. So we can scale the number of exemplars with linear complexity instead of quadratic complexity with respect to length. Experimental results on a diverse set of tasks show that our approach improves end-task performance and reduces evaluation variance over conventional in-context learning as the number of demonstration examples increases. Code has been released at https://aka.ms/structured-prompting.

Self-tuning algorithms that adapt the learning process online encourage more effective and robust learning. Among all the methods available, meta-gradients have emerged as a promising approach. They leverage the differentiability of the learning rule with respect to some hyper-parameters to adapt them in an online fashion. Although meta-gradients can be accumulated over multiple learning steps to avoid myopic updates, this is rarely used in practice. In this work, we demonstrate that whilst multi-step meta-gradients do provide a better learning signal in expectation, this comes at the cost of a significant increase in variance, hindering performance. In the light of this analysis, we introduce a novel method mixing multiple inner steps that enjoys a more accurate and robust meta-gradient signal, essentially trading off bias and variance in meta-gradient estimation. When applied to the Snake game, the mixing meta-gradient algorithm can cut the variance by a factor of 3 while achieving similar or higher performance.

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confidence of each data having relevance information via the EM-algorithm. However, these methods failed to address the missing-not-at-random problem in which popular or frequently recommended items are more likely to be clicked than other items even if a user does not have a considerable interest in them. To overcome these limitations, we first define an ideal loss function to be optimized to realize recommendations that maximize the relevance and propose an unbiased estimator for the ideal loss. Subsequently, we analyze the variance of the proposed unbiased estimator and further propose a clipped estimator that includes the unbiased estimator as a special case. We demonstrate that the clipped estimator is expected to improve the performance of the recommender system, by considering the bias-variance trade-off. We conduct semi-synthetic and real-world experiments and demonstrate that the proposed method largely outperforms the baselines. In particular, the proposed method works better for rare items that are less frequently observed in the training data. The findings indicate that the proposed method can better achieve the objective of recommending items with the highest relevance.

Most existing multi-object tracking methods typically learn visual tracking features via maximizing dis-similarities of different instances and minimizing similarities of the same instance. While such a feature learning scheme achieves promising performance, learning discriminative features solely based on visual information is challenging especially in case of environmental interference such as occlusion, blur and domain variance. In this work, we argue that multi-modal language-driven features provide complementary information to classical visual features, thereby aiding in improving the robustness to such environmental interference. To this end, we propose a new multi-object tracking framework, named LG-MOT, that explicitly leverages language information at different levels of granularity (scene-and instance-level) and combines it with standard visual features to obtain discriminative representations. To develop LG-MOT, we annotate existing MOT datasets with scene-and instance-level language descriptions. We then encode both instance-and scene-level language information into high-dimensional embeddings, which are utilized to guide the visual features during training. At inference, our LG-MOT uses the standard visual features without relying on annotated language descriptions. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks, MOT17, DanceTrack and SportsMOT, reveal the merits of the proposed contributions leading to state-of-the-art performance. On the DanceTrack test set, our LG-MOT achieves an absolute gain of 2.2\% in terms of target object association (IDF1 score), compared to the baseline using only visual features. Further, our LG-MOT exhibits strong cross-domain generalizability. The dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/WesLee88524/LG-MOT.

To combat the misuse of Large Language Models (LLMs), many recent studies have presented LLM-generated-text detectors with promising performance. When users instruct LLMs to generate texts, the instruction can include different constraints depending on the user's need. However, most recent studies do not cover such diverse instruction patterns when creating datasets for LLM detection. In this paper, we reveal that even task-oriented constraints -- constraints that would naturally be included in an instruction and are not related to detection-evasion -- cause existing powerful detectors to have a large variance in detection performance. We focus on student essay writing as a realistic domain and manually create task-oriented constraints based on several factors for essay quality. Our experiments show that the standard deviation (SD) of current detector performance on texts generated by an instruction with such a constraint is significantly larger (up to an SD of 14.4 F1-score) than that by generating texts multiple times or paraphrasing the instruction. We also observe an overall trend where the constraints can make LLM detection more challenging than without them. Finally, our analysis indicates that the high instruction-following ability of LLMs fosters the large impact of such constraints on detection performance.

We propose an inference-time scaling approach for pretrained flow models. Recently, inference-time scaling has gained significant attention in LLMs and diffusion models, improving sample quality or better aligning outputs with user preferences by leveraging additional computation. For diffusion models, particle sampling has allowed more efficient scaling due to the stochasticity at intermediate denoising steps. On the contrary, while flow models have gained popularity as an alternative to diffusion models--offering faster generation and high-quality outputs in state-of-the-art image and video generative models--efficient inference-time scaling methods used for diffusion models cannot be directly applied due to their deterministic generative process. To enable efficient inference-time scaling for flow models, we propose three key ideas: 1) SDE-based generation, enabling particle sampling in flow models, 2) Interpolant conversion, broadening the search space and enhancing sample diversity, and 3) Rollover Budget Forcing (RBF), an adaptive allocation of computational resources across timesteps to maximize budget utilization. Our experiments show that SDE-based generation, particularly variance-preserving (VP) interpolant-based generation, improves the performance of particle sampling methods for inference-time scaling in flow models. Additionally, we demonstrate that RBF with VP-SDE achieves the best performance, outperforming all previous inference-time scaling approaches.

The dominant approach to generating from language models subject to some constraint is locally constrained decoding (LCD), incrementally sampling tokens at each time step such that the constraint is never violated. Typically, this is achieved through token masking: looping over the vocabulary and excluding non-conforming tokens. There are two important problems with this approach. (i) Evaluating the constraint on every token can be prohibitively expensive -- LM vocabularies often exceed 100,000 tokens. (ii) LCD can distort the global distribution over strings, sampling tokens based only on local information, even if they lead down dead-end paths. This work introduces a new algorithm that addresses both these problems. First, to avoid evaluating a constraint on the full vocabulary at each step of generation, we propose an adaptive rejection sampling algorithm that typically requires orders of magnitude fewer constraint evaluations. Second, we show how this algorithm can be extended to produce low-variance, unbiased estimates of importance weights at a very small additional cost -- estimates that can be soundly used within previously proposed sequential Monte Carlo algorithms to correct for the myopic behavior of local constraint enforcement. Through extensive empirical evaluation in text-to-SQL, molecular synthesis, goal inference, pattern matching, and JSON domains, we show that our approach is superior to state-of-the-art baselines, supporting a broader class of constraints and improving both runtime and performance. Additional theoretical and empirical analyses show that our method's runtime efficiency is driven by its dynamic use of computation, scaling with the divergence between the unconstrained and constrained LM, and as a consequence, runtime improvements are greater for better models.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have displayed considerable promise in graph representation learning across various applications. The core learning process requires the initialization of model weight matrices within each GNN layer, which is typically accomplished via classic initialization methods such as Xavier initialization. However, these methods were originally motivated to stabilize the variance of hidden embeddings and gradients across layers of Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to avoid vanishing gradients and maintain steady information flow. In contrast, within the GNN context classical initializations disregard the impact of the input graph structure and message passing on variance. In this paper, we analyze the variance of forward and backward propagation across GNN layers and show that the variance instability of GNN initializations comes from the combined effect of the activation function, hidden dimension, graph structure and message passing. To better account for these influence factors, we propose a new initialization method for Variance Instability Reduction within GNN Optimization (Virgo), which naturally tends to equate forward and backward variances across successive layers. We conduct comprehensive experiments on 15 datasets to show that Virgo can lead to superior model performance and more stable variance at initialization on node classification, link prediction and graph classification tasks. Codes are in https://github.com/LspongebobJH/virgo_icml2023.

We address unsupervised discontinuous constituency parsing, where we observe a high variance in the performance of the only previous model. We propose to build an ensemble of different runs of the existing discontinuous parser by averaging the predicted trees, to stabilize and boost performance. To begin with, we provide comprehensive computational complexity analysis (in terms of P and NP-complete) for tree averaging under different setups of binarity and continuity. We then develop an efficient exact algorithm to tackle the task, which runs in a reasonable time for all samples in our experiments. Results on three datasets show our method outperforms all baselines in all metrics; we also provide in-depth analyses of our approach.

Discrete-action reinforcement learning algorithms often falter in tasks with high-dimensional discrete action spaces due to the vast number of possible actions. A recent advancement leverages value-decomposition, a concept from multi-agent reinforcement learning, to tackle this challenge. This study delves deep into the effects of this value-decomposition, revealing that whilst it curtails the over-estimation bias inherent to Q-learning algorithms, it amplifies target variance. To counteract this, we present an ensemble of critics to mitigate target variance. Moreover, we introduce a regularisation loss that helps to mitigate the effects that exploratory actions in one dimension can have on the value of optimal actions in other dimensions. Our novel algorithm, REValueD, tested on discretised versions of the DeepMind Control Suite tasks, showcases superior performance, especially in the challenging humanoid and dog tasks. We further dissect the factors influencing REValueD's performance, evaluating the significance of the regularisation loss and the scalability of REValueD with increasing sub-actions per dimension.

Recently, a series of papers proposed deep learning-based approaches to sample from unnormalized target densities using controlled diffusion processes. In this work, we identify these approaches as special cases of the Schr\"odinger bridge problem, seeking the most likely stochastic evolution between a given prior distribution and the specified target. We further generalize this framework by introducing a variational formulation based on divergences between path space measures of time-reversed diffusion processes. This abstract perspective leads to practical losses that can be optimized by gradient-based algorithms and includes previous objectives as special cases. At the same time, it allows us to consider divergences other than the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence that is known to suffer from mode collapse. In particular, we propose the so-called log-variance loss, which exhibits favorable numerical properties and leads to significantly improved performance across all considered approaches.

In this work we examine the classification accuracy and robustness of a state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithm applied to the morphological classification of radio galaxies. We test if SSL with fewer labels can achieve test accuracies comparable to the supervised state-of-the-art and whether this holds when incorporating previously unseen data. We find that for the radio galaxy classification problem considered, SSL provides additional regularisation and outperforms the baseline test accuracy. However, in contrast to model performance metrics reported on computer science benchmarking data-sets, we find that improvement is limited to a narrow range of label volumes, with performance falling off rapidly at low label volumes. Additionally, we show that SSL does not improve model calibration, regardless of whether classification is improved. Moreover, we find that when different underlying catalogues drawn from the same radio survey are used to provide the labelled and unlabelled data-sets required for SSL, a significant drop in classification performance is observered, highlighting the difficulty of applying SSL techniques under dataset shift. We show that a class-imbalanced unlabelled data pool negatively affects performance through prior probability shift, which we suggest may explain this performance drop, and that using the Frechet Distance between labelled and unlabelled data-sets as a measure of data-set shift can provide a prediction of model performance, but that for typical radio galaxy data-sets with labelled sample volumes of O(1000), the sample variance associated with this technique is high and the technique is in general not sufficiently robust to replace a train-test cycle.

Deep learning's growing prevalence has driven its widespread use in healthcare, where AI and sensor advancements enhance diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring. In mobile health, AI-powered tools enable early diagnosis and continuous monitoring of conditions like stress. Wearable technologies and multimodal physiological data have made stress detection increasingly viable, but model efficacy depends on data quality, quantity, and modality. This study develops transformer models for stress detection using the WESAD dataset, training on electrocardiograms (ECG), electrodermal activity (EDA), electromyography (EMG), respiration rate (RESP), temperature (TEMP), and 3-axis accelerometer (ACC) signals. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of single-modality transformers in analyzing physiological signals, achieving state-of-the-art performance with accuracy, precision and recall values in the range of 99.73% to 99.95% for stress detection. Furthermore, this study explores cross-modal performance and also explains the same using 2D visualization of the learned embedding space and quantitative analysis based on data variance. Despite the large body of work on stress detection and monitoring, the robustness and generalization of these models across different modalities has not been explored. This research represents one of the initial efforts to interpret embedding spaces for stress detection, providing valuable information on cross-modal performance.